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Everyone's missing that drones (flying cars) might take off too at roughly the same time. The challenge of making driverless cars completely safe (intelligent s

Everyone's missing that drones (flying cars) might take off too at roughly the same time. The challenge of making driverless cars completely safe (intelligent sensing and control) is also the challenge for flying cars. Flying cars would beat out road cars and so the reenvisioning of society is greater than what people like Brad Templeton have done. With flying cars, all investments in roads become useless and huge swathes of land become inhabitable. Real estate prices should consequently plummet and a worldwide financial panic occurs (this can all happen within 5 years). However, this will be a good thing since it will clean the current mess of unproductive activity that is land owning and leasing. What the mainstream media also aren't realizing is that the technology for driverless cars is also the same technology that automates away most factory/farming/mining/retail/distribution jobs. The effect in the west might not be so large, but in the rest of the world it could be devastating, leading to riots and civil wars.

andreasvc 14y ago
What is your argument that flying cars would beat out road cars? Flying requires way more energy and energy has always been scarce up till now.
- marshallp 14y ago
  It's not as simple as that. People fly now as well. If everything's about energy efficiency, people wouldn't leave their house. If by flying you can commute from a much cheaper place than it's worth it. Also, you have to factor in the road construction/maintenance costs which flying doesn't have. Especially in the third world where roads aren't built yet. Also, the flying can be in the form of airships which are energy efficient.
  - andreasvc 14y ago
    The most dramatic counterargument is with distribution of goods, which mostly occurs with cargo ships, trucks, and trains--simply because those are way cheaper & more efficient than flying. The simple physics argument is that it requires extra work to keep something flying, which is better avoided. So roads and rails will need to be kept anyway, and it's highly unlikely that people wouldn't use them. On the other hand, I do have to say I'm a big fan of airships, but I'm not holding my breath for their return. I even doubt people would accept that travelling has to be so much slower in an airship, now that he jet age has arrived.
    - marshallp 14y ago
      That's all about bulk cargo though. For people movement and last mile delivery like pizza, energy isn't the major consideration. And airships don't compete with jets. They're either bulk cargo or scenic travel. If airships are commonplace some people will choose to live in airships permanently, gliding with magnificent views, like some people currently do with boats and rv's.

andreasvc 14y ago

What is your argument that flying cars would beat out road cars? Flying requires way more energy and energy has always been scarce up till now.

marshallp 14y ago
It's not as simple as that. People fly now as well. If everything's about energy efficiency, people wouldn't leave their house. If by flying you can commute from a much cheaper place than it's worth it. Also, you have to factor in the road construction/maintenance costs which flying doesn't have. Especially in the third world where roads aren't built yet. Also, the flying can be in the form of airships which are energy efficient.
- andreasvc 14y ago
  The most dramatic counterargument is with distribution of goods, which mostly occurs with cargo ships, trucks, and trains--simply because those are way cheaper & more efficient than flying. The simple physics argument is that it requires extra work to keep something flying, which is better avoided. So roads and rails will need to be kept anyway, and it's highly unlikely that people wouldn't use them. On the other hand, I do have to say I'm a big fan of airships, but I'm not holding my breath for their return. I even doubt people would accept that travelling has to be so much slower in an airship, now that he jet age has arrived.
  - marshallp 14y ago
    That's all about bulk cargo though. For people movement and last mile delivery like pizza, energy isn't the major consideration. And airships don't compete with jets. They're either bulk cargo or scenic travel. If airships are commonplace some people will choose to live in airships permanently, gliding with magnificent views, like some people currently do with boats and rv's.