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SpaceX valuation is also going to be interesting. Talking about CapEx, SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones. And without Starlink the space

SpaceX valuation is also going to be interesting. Talking about CapEx, SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones. And without Starlink the space launch market size is pretty small.

testing22321 8mo ago
> And without Starlink the space launch market size is pretty small. The EV market was mighty small when Tesla started too. Skate to where the puck is going.
- amluto 8mo ago
  Sure, but Tesla is doing a surprisingly poor job of capturing the EV market lately.
  - testing22321 8mo ago
    Absolutely. But we’re talking about the launch market in the next 5-10 years, and it’s incredibly obvious it’s about to skyrocket
    - amluto 8mo ago
      Is it? It’s less than obvious that the orbital datacenter boom will happen. Space mining could be a big deal but that’s not a foregone conclusion. Maybe someone will want to build a huge radio array on the far side of the moon, but I don’t expect hundreds of billions to be spent launching it — who would pay? Mars is less fashionable than it was a few years ago. Starlink is pretty impressive, but so is boring singlemode fiber, and the latter is increasingly being deployed everywhere. (Obviously it will “skyrocket” unless someone comes up with a commercially viable launch system that doesn’t involve rocketing into the sky…)
      - testing22321 8mo ago
        There is Starlink and Amazon’s version, which both need many thousands of launches each (ignoring data centres) There’s US military stuff like the starsheild, and it seems extremely likely china will follow suit. Sat internet is changing the world rapidly where fibre can not be run. I saw it first hand in remote Australia, Yukon, Alaska and Africa. Not to mention ships and planes. These projects are aggressively driving down launch costs, which increases demand for launches, which drives down launch costs which drives up demand.
        luke5441 8mo ago
        Just as we had the other day: Competition is not market validation https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46961726 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46961726 There is no doubt it is worth a lot in very remote destinations. But by definition there aren't many people there. Thus limited market size. Launches for US military hardware is a market, yes. Other countries are going to want to use/build up their own capabilities, so SpaceX won't have market access. Especially China.
        testing22321 8mo ago
        The launch market is already booming. Denying that is denying reality.
bgirard 8mo ago
> SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones The deorbiting part is redundant. Their satellite are just that, a depreciating asset. Their lifetime seem to be 5 to 7 years. The important claim is if the total cost, including the launch, can be recuperate over that lifetime or not.

SpaceX valuation is also going to be interesting. Talking about CapEx, SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones. And without Starlink the space launch market size is pretty small.

testing22321 8mo ago

> And without Starlink the space launch market size is pretty small. The EV market was mighty small when Tesla started too. Skate to where the puck is going.

amluto 8mo ago
Sure, but Tesla is doing a surprisingly poor job of capturing the EV market lately.
- testing22321 8mo ago
  Absolutely. But we’re talking about the launch market in the next 5-10 years, and it’s incredibly obvious it’s about to skyrocket
  - amluto 8mo ago
    Is it? It’s less than obvious that the orbital datacenter boom will happen. Space mining could be a big deal but that’s not a foregone conclusion. Maybe someone will want to build a huge radio array on the far side of the moon, but I don’t expect hundreds of billions to be spent launching it — who would pay? Mars is less fashionable than it was a few years ago. Starlink is pretty impressive, but so is boring singlemode fiber, and the latter is increasingly being deployed everywhere. (Obviously it will “skyrocket” unless someone comes up with a commercially viable launch system that doesn’t involve rocketing into the sky…)
    - testing22321 8mo ago
      There is Starlink and Amazon’s version, which both need many thousands of launches each (ignoring data centres) There’s US military stuff like the starsheild, and it seems extremely likely china will follow suit. Sat internet is changing the world rapidly where fibre can not be run. I saw it first hand in remote Australia, Yukon, Alaska and Africa. Not to mention ships and planes. These projects are aggressively driving down launch costs, which increases demand for launches, which drives down launch costs which drives up demand.
      - luke5441 8mo ago
        Just as we had the other day: Competition is not market validation https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46961726 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46961726 There is no doubt it is worth a lot in very remote destinations. But by definition there aren't many people there. Thus limited market size. Launches for US military hardware is a market, yes. Other countries are going to want to use/build up their own capabilities, so SpaceX won't have market access. Especially China.
        testing22321 8mo ago
        The launch market is already booming. Denying that is denying reality.

bgirard 8mo ago

> SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones The deorbiting part is redundant. Their satellite are just that, a depreciating asset. Their lifetime seem to be 5 to 7 years. The important claim is if the total cost, including the launch, can be recuperate over that lifetime or not.