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Not sure about that; why does the US have a huge number of troops in Germany in the first place? Defence, or occupation? It seems to me that the objectives unt
by pjc50 9mo ago
Not sure about that; why does the US have a huge number of troops in Germany in the first place? Defence, or occupation?
It seems to me that the objectives until ~2014 were to (a) provide moral and a small amount of physical support for the War on Terror; (b) sell US weapons, such as the F-35; and (c) ensure that European defence centered around NATO, under US control, and not the EU. The US wanted Europe to have enough capability to assist the US, but not to go off on adventures of its own and certainly not (going all the way back to the Washington Naval Treaty here) enough military might to resist the US or start another European empire.
That is, the strategy from WW2 until fairly recently was to prevent Germany re-arming. Just as the large deployment in Japan is to prevent Japan from re-arming just as much as it is there to defend the Pacific from China.
- saubeidl 9mo agoAn intricate plan designed to further US interests, wrecked by an ignoramus who didn't understand it.
- Taikonerd 9mo agoI would also say (d) make it clear to the Soviet Union that, if they invaded West Germany, it would not just be an intra-European war; it would be a world war.
- pjc50 9mo agoSure, but that rationale went away in the early 1990s and they stayed for thirty years longer than that.
- Taikonerd 9mo agoTrue. Institutions like that have a lot of momentum, and they sometimes outlive their original rationale. But on the other hand, Russian aggression is back in the headlines these days...
- expedition32 9mo agoAircraft carriers cannot replace military bases. That is why they stayed. The US can support all of its military operations in Africa and the Middle East from its vast cold war era infrastructure in Europe.
- T-A 9mo agoA.k.a. "Keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down" https://unherd.com/2017/10/keeping-russians-americans-germans-hows-nato/ https://unherd.com/2017/10/keeping-russians-americans-german...
- graemep 9mo agoThe time when Europe had the capability to go off on adventures of its own or be a threat to the US is past. European economies are no longer big enough proportionately. Compare a lit of the world's largest economies from 40 years ago to now.
- saubeidl 9mo agoEurope is taking over America's back yard as we speak. Power isn't just raw numbers. It's bureaucracy and shaping the rules of engagement. https://apnews.com/article/mercosur-european-union-trade-agreement-south-america-b779460da4b7ecb6aa15d322976fa70d https://apnews.com/article/mercosur-european-union-trade-agr...
- T-A 9mo agoIn purchasing power parity terms, a glance at Wikipedia yields China: $43.491 trillion [1] USA: $31.821 trillion [2] EU: $30.184 trillion [3] UK: $4.59 trillion [4] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
- graemep 9mo agoNow compare that to the same numbers from 40 years ago. Then do the same with nominal GDP which is a better measure for this IMO as you cannot buy anything in global markets at PPP.
- T-A 9mo ago> Now compare that to the same numbers from 40 years ago. That turns out to be easier than I thought thanks to [1]. In 1986 it looked like this (PPP, million USD): China: 647,219 USA: 4,579,625 EU ex UK: 4,368,019 UK: 805,518 EU total: 5,173,537 [2] The big standout is obviously China's rise since then. > Then do the same with nominal GDP which is a better measure for this IMO as you cannot buy anything in global markets at PPP. I disagree; we are comparing three global powers which would be quite capable of satisfying their needs internally if need be. Feel free to post your own calculations if you want, but be careful with dates and exchange rates; the USD index is down about 9% over the past year. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_... [2] In 1986, the EU had 12 members: Belgium (161,613), Denmark (100,996), France (866,333), West Germany (1,319,247), Greece (120,566), Ireland (40,169), Italy (953,257), Luxembourg (10,542), Netherlands (246,164), Portugal (92,824), Spain (456,308) and UK (805,518): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_enlargement_of_the_European_Communities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_enlargement_of_the_Europe...
- inglor_cz 9mo ago"huge number of troops in Germany in the first place?" I wouldn't call 35000 troops of mostly non-combat specializations a "huge number". In the Cold War, the American presence in West Germany was an order of magnitude larger, about quarter a million soldiers. "Defence, or occupation?" Neither/nor. Logistics for various distant operations. Rhineland is a very practical stop located between the US and the Middle East + North Africa (MENA), closer to MENA, with highly developed maintenance and repair facilities, communication facilities, top-notch hospitals for casualties etc. If a GI Joe gets seriously injured in Kabul or Baghdad or now possibly Tehran, they are airlifted to Ramstein. If an armored vehicle gets damaged by a roadside bomb and the local mechanics cannot fix it on the spot, dtto. General Hodges wrote several articles on how dumb the current administration is to alienate Europe, because without access to such facilities, any deployment in the wider region becomes very challenging. Even the original invasion of Iraq was somewhat complicated by the Irish refusing the use of Shannon airport for US military aircraft.
- PearlRiver 9mo agoThis reminds me of Afghanistan. It was a very difficult war for the US because they had no bases in the region and Afghanistan was surrounded by hostile/unstable nations.