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Job sector growth (after revisions down) has been almost entirely within the healthcare industry which is quite unsustainable. We can't all get rich being a mi

by munk-a 8mo ago

Job sector growth (after revisions down) has been almost entirely within the healthcare industry which is quite unsustainable. We can't all get rich being a middle man between the doctor and our neighbors. Outside of that sector we're seeing economy-wide shrinkage and stagnant wage growth with a decrease in real wages relative to inflation. This is a recession - it will be a full-on depression if we get a doveish Fed chair... it might be one anyways, we'll need extremely adroit action to recover into a healthy economic state. But hey, DOW go up and that's all we care about, right?

xnx 8mo ago
> We can't all get rich being a middle man between the doctor and our neighbors I'm not familiar with the healthcare sector. Is this where the job growth is? The country is getting older and I expect there would be a lot of demand for non-AI-replaceable nurses and elder care. Many of those workers have also been deported or scared out of the country.
- toomuchtodo 8mo ago
  https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1r21tdv/oc_if_you_exclude_healthcare_employment_the_us/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1r21tdv/oc... https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/january-jobs-report-unemployment-b703b0e3 https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/january-jobs-report-unemplo... | https://archive.today/9gdEO https://archive.today/9gdEO Healthcare job increases should not be unexpected as the country ages, deaths outnumber births in 21 states (as of this comment), the demand for care will only grow over time. https://usafacts.org/articles/america-is-getting-older-which-states-have-the-largest-elderly-populations/ https://usafacts.org/articles/america-is-getting-older-which... > As of 2024, 18% (61.2 million) of Americans are 65 or older, according to Census Bureau data. The national population over the age of 65 has more than doubled since 1980, with three-quarters of that growth occurring in the 21st century. The 65 and older group grew by more than 26.2 million people, a 74.6% increase, during that time. https://www.prb.org/resources/fact-sheet-aging-in-the-united-states/ https://www.prb.org/resources/fact-sheet-aging-in-the-united... > The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to increase from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050 (a 42% increase), and the 65-and-older age group’s share of the total population is projected to rise from 17% to 23%. The U.S population is older today than it has ever been. Between 1980 and 2022, the median age of the population increased from 30.0 to 38.9, but one-third (17) of states in the country had a median age above 40 in 2022, with Maine (44.8) and New Hampshire (43.3) at the top of the list. It is very unlikely the work done by CNAs, RNs, physical therapists, and others providing this population care can or will be automated.
  - simonsarris 8mo ago
    That top graph has been shared a lot but its a somewhat disingenuous display of data. It's true that lots of growth has been healthcare in the last 2 years, but that doesn't mean zero growth elsewhere, you can see eg construction growth on the chart, which is reflected in the fact that construction is seeing all-time-high employment right now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2023700001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2023700001 And if you look at something that's "flat" like transportation, its still essentially at all time highs right now, its just now declining slightly, but its on the heels of major growth: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4300000001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4300000001 Now if you look at one that's negative on the graph, like retail trade, and zoom out: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USTRADE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USTRADE It's still essentially at all time highs! Serious contractions in these things would be much more worrisome, but this data is basically fine. Some losses may just be temporal corrections from all time highs, like what happened to software jobs at the end of ZIRP (though Software now has separate problems to solve wrt job market).
- jmye 8mo ago
  > I'm not familiar with the healthcare sector. Is this where the job growth is? Real world, less so; HN-focused areas, absolutely. Nearly every mediocre, tech-focused healthcare start up is just a money siphon, no matter how many times their founders talk about “disruption”. In actual healthcare, there are massive nursing shortages, and lots of need for people doing actual, hard, brick-and-mortar work.
alephnerd 8mo ago
I mean, even ignoring the recent GenAI narrative, vast portions of the economy have already been significantly automated for decades. Additive Manufacturing, industrial robotics, the Internet, and the proliferation of computers had already made large portions of manufacturing and low skill white collar jobs redundant by the mid-2010s. Furthermore, the brutal reality is most businesses can generate revenue growth just by concentrating on the 90th percentile and above of households [0], (edit: or at best the 70th percentile of households of income [1]). For example, despite all the love Costco gets on HN - the reality is it only targets customers within the top 50% of households by income [2]. You may delude yourself into thinking that you are a thrifty underdog when you shop at Costco, but the reality is most Americans cannot and will never be able to afford Costco, and Costco doesn't want or need their business. A K-Shape Economy is actually the historical norm. [0] - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/income-share-of-the-top-10-pip https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/income-share-of-the-top-1... [1] - https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/ [2] - https://www.businessinsider.com/how-costco-sams-club-shoppers-differ-income-spending-habits-2025-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/how-costco-sams-club-shopper...
- xg15 8mo ago
  This is my suspicion. I imagine, if you don't care about the majority of the population, you might as well reduce the economy to circular transactions between corporations and between 1%ers and the businesses catering to them.
  - Eisenstein 8mo ago
    I propose we should care about the majority of the population, and not do that.
  - giraffe_lady 8mo ago
    Everyone loves to talk about neuromancer but missed when gibson went on to write a half dozen even more prescient books about exactly this process and its eventual consequences.
thalpr 8mo ago
The Trump clan literally does not care. The most pressing issues are to further legalize crypto so that the whales (including Trump's World Liberty Fund) have an exit. So there is a family/industry crypto conference at Mar a Lago while the economy is crashing: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-nasdaq-ceos-headline-mar-a-lago-crypto-forum-hosted-by-don-jr-eric-trump-2026-02-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-nasdaq-ceos-headlin...
astrange 8mo ago
There does not appear to be a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
- Forgeties79 8mo ago
  I think it’s fair to say we are in a strange economic environment and no one can clearly say what the situation is.
biophysboy 8mo ago
To be fair, the healthcare employment flows are small (1.6M) compared to the total employment stock (160M+ people). And you would expect the healthcare labor supply to increase to match the bulge created by the baby boom. I don't think this means we will all be a healthcare middle man though; it assumes this large flow is permanent, and overstates the fraction of the labor stock.
tonyedgecombe 8mo ago
> Job sector growth (after revisions down) has been almost entirely within the healthcare industry which is quite unsustainable. Someone has to wipe our Boomer arses. An aging population means more healthcare and less of everything else.
- alephnerd 8mo ago
  > Someone has to wipe our Boomer arses. An aging population means more healthcare and less of everything else And a much more intense shift to financialization. Pension funds tends to target an IRR of around 20-30%, and it is they that are the biggest pools of capital that funds invest. You ain't hitting that amount of IRR without an extreme degree of financial ruthlessness.
burnt-resistor 8mo ago
Because it's a funny money financialization bubble that seeks to perpetuate irrational exuberance as long as possible without regards to fundamentals or externalities.

by munk-a 8mo ago

xnx 8mo ago

> We can't all get rich being a middle man between the doctor and our neighbors I'm not familiar with the healthcare sector. Is this where the job growth is? The country is getting older and I expect there would be a lot of demand for non-AI-replaceable nurses and elder care. Many of those workers have also been deported or scared out of the country.

toomuchtodo 8mo ago
https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1r21tdv/oc_if_you_exclude_healthcare_employment_the_us/ https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1r21tdv/oc... https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/january-jobs-report-unemployment-b703b0e3 https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/january-jobs-report-unemplo... | https://archive.today/9gdEO https://archive.today/9gdEO Healthcare job increases should not be unexpected as the country ages, deaths outnumber births in 21 states (as of this comment), the demand for care will only grow over time. https://usafacts.org/articles/america-is-getting-older-which-states-have-the-largest-elderly-populations/ https://usafacts.org/articles/america-is-getting-older-which... > As of 2024, 18% (61.2 million) of Americans are 65 or older, according to Census Bureau data. The national population over the age of 65 has more than doubled since 1980, with three-quarters of that growth occurring in the 21st century. The 65 and older group grew by more than 26.2 million people, a 74.6% increase, during that time. https://www.prb.org/resources/fact-sheet-aging-in-the-united-states/ https://www.prb.org/resources/fact-sheet-aging-in-the-united... > The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to increase from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050 (a 42% increase), and the 65-and-older age group’s share of the total population is projected to rise from 17% to 23%. The U.S population is older today than it has ever been. Between 1980 and 2022, the median age of the population increased from 30.0 to 38.9, but one-third (17) of states in the country had a median age above 40 in 2022, with Maine (44.8) and New Hampshire (43.3) at the top of the list. It is very unlikely the work done by CNAs, RNs, physical therapists, and others providing this population care can or will be automated.
- simonsarris 8mo ago
  That top graph has been shared a lot but its a somewhat disingenuous display of data. It's true that lots of growth has been healthcare in the last 2 years, but that doesn't mean zero growth elsewhere, you can see eg construction growth on the chart, which is reflected in the fact that construction is seeing all-time-high employment right now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2023700001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2023700001 And if you look at something that's "flat" like transportation, its still essentially at all time highs right now, its just now declining slightly, but its on the heels of major growth: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4300000001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4300000001 Now if you look at one that's negative on the graph, like retail trade, and zoom out: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USTRADE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USTRADE It's still essentially at all time highs! Serious contractions in these things would be much more worrisome, but this data is basically fine. Some losses may just be temporal corrections from all time highs, like what happened to software jobs at the end of ZIRP (though Software now has separate problems to solve wrt job market).
jmye 8mo ago
> I'm not familiar with the healthcare sector. Is this where the job growth is? Real world, less so; HN-focused areas, absolutely. Nearly every mediocre, tech-focused healthcare start up is just a money siphon, no matter how many times their founders talk about “disruption”. In actual healthcare, there are massive nursing shortages, and lots of need for people doing actual, hard, brick-and-mortar work.

alephnerd 8mo ago

I mean, even ignoring the recent GenAI narrative, vast portions of the economy have already been significantly automated for decades. Additive Manufacturing, industrial robotics, the Internet, and the proliferation of computers had already made large portions of manufacturing and low skill white collar jobs redundant by the mid-2010s. Furthermore, the brutal reality is most businesses can generate revenue growth just by concentrating on the 90th percentile and above of households [0], (edit: or at best the 70th percentile of households of income [1]). For example, despite all the love Costco gets on HN - the reality is it only targets customers within the top 50% of households by income [2]. You may delude yourself into thinking that you are a thrifty underdog when you shop at Costco, but the reality is most Americans cannot and will never be able to afford Costco, and Costco doesn't want or need their business. A K-Shape Economy is actually the historical norm. [0] - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/income-share-of-the-top-10-pip https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/income-share-of-the-top-1... [1] - https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/ [2] - https://www.businessinsider.com/how-costco-sams-club-shoppers-differ-income-spending-habits-2025-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/how-costco-sams-club-shopper...

xg15 8mo ago
This is my suspicion. I imagine, if you don't care about the majority of the population, you might as well reduce the economy to circular transactions between corporations and between 1%ers and the businesses catering to them.
- Eisenstein 8mo ago
  I propose we should care about the majority of the population, and not do that.
- giraffe_lady 8mo ago
  Everyone loves to talk about neuromancer but missed when gibson went on to write a half dozen even more prescient books about exactly this process and its eventual consequences.

thalpr 8mo ago

The Trump clan literally does not care. The most pressing issues are to further legalize crypto so that the whales (including Trump's World Liberty Fund) have an exit. So there is a family/industry crypto conference at Mar a Lago while the economy is crashing: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-nasdaq-ceos-headline-mar-a-lago-crypto-forum-hosted-by-don-jr-eric-trump-2026-02-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-nasdaq-ceos-headlin...

astrange 8mo ago

There does not appear to be a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
Forgeties79 8mo ago
I think it’s fair to say we are in a strange economic environment and no one can clearly say what the situation is.

biophysboy 8mo ago

To be fair, the healthcare employment flows are small (1.6M) compared to the total employment stock (160M+ people). And you would expect the healthcare labor supply to increase to match the bulge created by the baby boom. I don't think this means we will all be a healthcare middle man though; it assumes this large flow is permanent, and overstates the fraction of the labor stock.

tonyedgecombe 8mo ago

> Job sector growth (after revisions down) has been almost entirely within the healthcare industry which is quite unsustainable. Someone has to wipe our Boomer arses. An aging population means more healthcare and less of everything else.

alephnerd 8mo ago
> Someone has to wipe our Boomer arses. An aging population means more healthcare and less of everything else And a much more intense shift to financialization. Pension funds tends to target an IRR of around 20-30%, and it is they that are the biggest pools of capital that funds invest. You ain't hitting that amount of IRR without an extreme degree of financial ruthlessness.

burnt-resistor 8mo ago

Because it's a funny money financialization bubble that seeks to perpetuate irrational exuberance as long as possible without regards to fundamentals or externalities.