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Battery is not the issue. NMC li-ion batteries have fallen down to $100 per kWh on the _pack_ level (not cell). And LFPs are around $80. CyberTruck battery is

by cyberax 9mo ago

Battery is not the issue. NMC li-ion batteries have fallen down to $100 per kWh on the _pack_ level (not cell). And LFPs are around $80. CyberTruck battery is around 130kWh, so that's just $13k for the more pricey NMC chemistry. This is what makes the Ford fumble with the electric F-150 so comical. Out of curiosity, I wanted to see if there are any Chinese brands selling batteries of this capacity. And there are plenty. You can buy a 200kWh, with a home delivery today. https://lithiumbattery.en.made-in-china.com/product/kEDRHjlVhIhi/China-Modular-EV-Battery-Truck-200kwh-Lithium-Ion-Battery-Electric-Truck-Lithium-Battery-150kw-300kw-600V-650V-110kw-200kw-EV-Battery.html https://lithiumbattery.en.made-in-china.com/product/kEDRHjlV... Sure, it'll likely explode if you put it in a car. But it's only a matter of time before some enterprising Chinese company makes a compelling truck. US automakers are sooooo screwed.

AnthonyMouse 9mo ago
> NMC li-ion batteries have fallen down to $100 per kWh on the _pack_ level (not cell). When the Cybertruck was released in 2023 it was $139, making it more like $18k. And that's just the battery, you still need to make the rest of the truck and pay all your other overhead before you get to the MSRP. The problem is you can't sell a boring $40k truck for $60k, so instead they tried to make an "interesting" truck for $80k, but nobody wants that either. They should've just waited until they could make a boring electric truck for $40k. > US automakers are sooooo screwed. Ten years ago packs were $345/kWh and then electric cars have to be premium products. For under $100 they don't and then all it's going to take is for one company to start selling an electric car in the US that costs less than the equivalent gasoline car. They'll figure it out when the demand shifts. It doesn't take that long to reconfigure factories, they do it every time they come out with a new model anyway.
- cyberax 9mo ago
  > When the Cybertruck was released in 2023 it was $139, making it more like $18k. And that's just the battery, you still need to make the rest of the truck and pay all your other overhead before you get to the MSRP. But the rest of the car is not actually that pricey. Motors and power electrics are now reasonably priced, especially if you're making an actual working truck that doesn't need to do 60 mph in 3 seconds. The frame and body are cheap. So a decent $40k truck is definitely possible now. > They'll figure it out when the demand shifts. It doesn't take that long to reconfigure factories, they do it every time they come out with a new model anyway. Nah. I figure that the US automakers instead decided to wall off the competition for as long as possible to wring out every last drop of profit. And then just dump the rotting husks (maybe to Chinese buyers). Perhaps with a bailout or five from the government.
  - AnthonyMouse 9mo ago
    > Motors and power electrics are now reasonably priced, especially if you're making an actual working truck that doesn't need to do 60 mph in 3 seconds. If you're making an actual working truck, the motor and power electronics need to be more substantial because they have to handle being able to e.g. pull a loaded trailer up a steep grade. > The frame and body are cheap. The piece of metal is fairly cheap. Now fill every door with power electronics, add glass, add climate control, the thing's going to need tires, wheels, axles, brakes, something to make power brakes work without an engine to provide vacuum, steering, suspension, etc. Most of the cost of a vehicle isn't the powertrain. > So a decent $40k truck is definitely possible now. It's not a question of if you can do $40k. It's a question of, does the electric powertrain and battery still cost more than the ICE power train, and therefore require you to cut something else in order to avoid charging more? $30k trucks exist but people don't want a $30k truck for $40k. > I figure that the US automakers instead decided to wall off the competition for as long as possible to wring out every last drop of profit. The obvious problem with this is that they could keep out BYD and hypothetically kick out Nissan and VW etc., but what are Ford and GM supposed to do as the battery prices come down when Tesla just sets the prices of their existing lineup consistent with the falling battery costs, much less releases any new models?

by cyberax 9mo ago

AnthonyMouse 9mo ago

> NMC li-ion batteries have fallen down to $100 per kWh on the _pack_ level (not cell). When the Cybertruck was released in 2023 it was $139, making it more like $18k. And that's just the battery, you still need to make the rest of the truck and pay all your other overhead before you get to the MSRP. The problem is you can't sell a boring $40k truck for $60k, so instead they tried to make an "interesting" truck for $80k, but nobody wants that either. They should've just waited until they could make a boring electric truck for $40k. > US automakers are sooooo screwed. Ten years ago packs were $345/kWh and then electric cars have to be premium products. For under $100 they don't and then all it's going to take is for one company to start selling an electric car in the US that costs less than the equivalent gasoline car. They'll figure it out when the demand shifts. It doesn't take that long to reconfigure factories, they do it every time they come out with a new model anyway.

cyberax 9mo ago
> When the Cybertruck was released in 2023 it was $139, making it more like $18k. And that's just the battery, you still need to make the rest of the truck and pay all your other overhead before you get to the MSRP. But the rest of the car is not actually that pricey. Motors and power electrics are now reasonably priced, especially if you're making an actual working truck that doesn't need to do 60 mph in 3 seconds. The frame and body are cheap. So a decent $40k truck is definitely possible now. > They'll figure it out when the demand shifts. It doesn't take that long to reconfigure factories, they do it every time they come out with a new model anyway. Nah. I figure that the US automakers instead decided to wall off the competition for as long as possible to wring out every last drop of profit. And then just dump the rotting husks (maybe to Chinese buyers). Perhaps with a bailout or five from the government.
- AnthonyMouse 9mo ago
  > Motors and power electrics are now reasonably priced, especially if you're making an actual working truck that doesn't need to do 60 mph in 3 seconds. If you're making an actual working truck, the motor and power electronics need to be more substantial because they have to handle being able to e.g. pull a loaded trailer up a steep grade. > The frame and body are cheap. The piece of metal is fairly cheap. Now fill every door with power electronics, add glass, add climate control, the thing's going to need tires, wheels, axles, brakes, something to make power brakes work without an engine to provide vacuum, steering, suspension, etc. Most of the cost of a vehicle isn't the powertrain. > So a decent $40k truck is definitely possible now. It's not a question of if you can do $40k. It's a question of, does the electric powertrain and battery still cost more than the ICE power train, and therefore require you to cut something else in order to avoid charging more? $30k trucks exist but people don't want a $30k truck for $40k. > I figure that the US automakers instead decided to wall off the competition for as long as possible to wring out every last drop of profit. The obvious problem with this is that they could keep out BYD and hypothetically kick out Nissan and VW etc., but what are Ford and GM supposed to do as the battery prices come down when Tesla just sets the prices of their existing lineup consistent with the falling battery costs, much less releases any new models?