4 ms·
Stanford prof rebutts David's idea[0] that it's difficult to extract productivity from the data https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25148/w25148.
by gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
Stanford prof rebutts David's idea[0] that it's difficult to extract productivity from the data
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25148/w25148.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25148/w251...
I don't agree that real GDP measures what he thinks it measures, but he opines
>Data released this week offers a striking corrective to the narrative that AI has yet to have an impact on the US economy as a whole. While initial reports suggested a year of steady labour expansion in the US, the new figures reveal that total payroll growth was revised downward by approximately 403,000 jobs. Crucially, this downward revision occurred while real GDP remained robust, including a 3.7 per cent growth rate in the fourth quarter. This decoupling — maintaining high output with significantly lower labour input — is the hallmark of productivity growth.
https://www.ft.com/content/4b51d0b4-bbfe-4f05-b50a-1d485d419dc5 https://www.ft.com/content/4b51d0b4-bbfe-4f05-b50a-1d485d419...
[0] on the basis that IT and AI are not general technologies in the mold of the dynamo, keyword "intangibles", see section 4 p21, A method to measure intangibles
- PowerElectronix 8mo agoGDP growth measurements have a big bias due to tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs on again policies wrecking imports and exports numbers. Consumer spending is up, too, so I too fail to see that gdp growth while jobs are not as up as expected is due to AI making us more productive and not just people spending more after months of increased savings due to tariffs.
- reg_dunlop 8mo agoI'm curious how "consumer spending" is quantified here. Is consumer spending measured in total dollars spent? If so, isn't that curious wrinkle in an economy of rising prices, and decreasing purchasing power? If true, I believe less quantity could be purchased at a higher cost per person, making it appear that consumer spending is up. Presumably these numbers are benchmarked/peg to some sort of constant and/or standardization
- gsf_emergency_6 8mo agoNominal spending:PCE price index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_consumption_expenditures_price_index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_consumption_expenditu...