3 ms·

Funny to see the comments here vs the thread the other day where a Waymo hit a child. There's no real discussion to be had on any of this. Just people coming i

by leesec 8mo ago

Funny to see the comments here vs the thread the other day where a Waymo hit a child. There's no real discussion to be had on any of this. Just people coming in to confirm their biases. As for me, I'm happy to make and take bets on Tesla beating Waymo. I've heard all these arguments a million times. Bet some money

ra7 8mo ago
> Tesla beating Waymo Heard this for a decade now, but I’m sure this year will be different!
- leesec 8mo ago
  I didn't say this year, but lets bet on it?
  - ra7 8mo ago
    Nothing says confidence like a prediction with an unspecified timeline.
    - leesec 8mo ago
      Propose a bet with concrete details and resolutions so we can bet. For instance, Would you like to bet 1000 dollars Tesla has more unsupervised self driving robotaxis than Waymo at the start of 2027?
      - ra7 8mo ago
        We all know Tesla likes to play smoke and mirrors game with vehicle numbers — they have 300+ "robotaxis" but only 7 of them are unsupervised [1], and they shut down when it rains [2]. So let's use a metric that unequivocally shows who is 'winning'. I'm confident Waymo will have more paid rides per week than Tesla at the start of 2027 (I'll give you 2028 if you want). No other metric indicates scale better than passenger trips. If you have more robotaxis or you are in more cities, it will show up in the trip count. I'll give $1000 to a charity of your choosing if Tesla beats Waymo in this metric. Fully unsupervised trips only, does not include trips with a safety driver or a monitor in a passenger seat, none of the usual games they like to play. [1] https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla [2] https://x.com/ethanmckanna/status/2022803049551372395 https://x.com/ethanmckanna/status/2022803049551372395
        leesec 7mo ago
        OK. Let's do 2028. My charity is myself. I'll also send you 1k if I'm wrong
sebastian_z 8mo ago
They are not comparable. The Waymo incident involved a child who ran out from behind an SUV and into the roadway, directly in front of the Waymo [1]. [1] https://www.fastcompany.com/91491273/waymo-vehicle-hit-a-child-what-can-we-learn-from-the-incident https://www.fastcompany.com/91491273/waymo-vehicle-hit-a-chi....
kikki 8mo ago
I own a Tesla (and subscribe to "FSD", >70% of my miles are FSD without issue). As it stands though, Waymo is by every metric objectively better at "autonomous driving". I would also love to see every car brand have full autonomous driving. It seems like you think you must be in one camp or another, and that one has to "beat" the other - but that's not true. Both can be successful - wouldn't that be a great world?
reitzensteinm 8mo ago
Sure. I'll bet you that in calendar year 2028 Waymo has more paid passenger trips than Tesla. Loser donates $1k USD to Doctors Without Borders. I'm not a camera only doomer, and expect that in ten years Waymo will also not use Lidar, or that the units will be incredibly cheap and well integrated. But I think the pro Tesla camp is exaggerating how quickly the march of 9s will happen for them, and underestimating and how quickly Waymo will expand in the next few years.
- bdangubic 8mo ago
  I am in on this as well and will do 10-1, I will donate $10k for any $1k pledged (would easily do 100-1 as I am sure Tesla will kill robotaxi within next 2 years “to focus on alienrobots on Moon Data Centers”)
  - leesec 7mo ago
    OK I'm happy to book 10k on this at 10-1. Or whatever the max is you're OK with betting. Prefer just to give to eachother then donate. Please respond if you're serious and we can trade details
- leesec 7mo ago
  Will happily take this bet and also happy to 10x it if you want. Would prefer we just pay each other though. You can donate my money if you want
  - reitzensteinm 7mo ago
    Proceeds going to charity is a must for me - it keeps it friendly and significantly reduces the impact of counterparty risk. There's a reason Long Now uses this format, and I'm happy to use their platform and pay the fee: https://longbets.org/rules/ https://longbets.org/rules/ Email is reitzensteinm@gmail.com if you're interested.

by leesec 8mo ago

ra7 8mo ago

> Tesla beating Waymo Heard this for a decade now, but I’m sure this year will be different!

leesec 8mo ago
I didn't say this year, but lets bet on it?
- ra7 8mo ago
  Nothing says confidence like a prediction with an unspecified timeline.
  - leesec 8mo ago
    Propose a bet with concrete details and resolutions so we can bet. For instance, Would you like to bet 1000 dollars Tesla has more unsupervised self driving robotaxis than Waymo at the start of 2027?
    - ra7 8mo ago
      We all know Tesla likes to play smoke and mirrors game with vehicle numbers — they have 300+ "robotaxis" but only 7 of them are unsupervised [1], and they shut down when it rains [2]. So let's use a metric that unequivocally shows who is 'winning'. I'm confident Waymo will have more paid rides per week than Tesla at the start of 2027 (I'll give you 2028 if you want). No other metric indicates scale better than passenger trips. If you have more robotaxis or you are in more cities, it will show up in the trip count. I'll give $1000 to a charity of your choosing if Tesla beats Waymo in this metric. Fully unsupervised trips only, does not include trips with a safety driver or a monitor in a passenger seat, none of the usual games they like to play. [1] https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla [2] https://x.com/ethanmckanna/status/2022803049551372395 https://x.com/ethanmckanna/status/2022803049551372395
      - leesec 7mo ago
        OK. Let's do 2028. My charity is myself. I'll also send you 1k if I'm wrong

sebastian_z 8mo ago

They are not comparable. The Waymo incident involved a child who ran out from behind an SUV and into the roadway, directly in front of the Waymo [1]. [1] https://www.fastcompany.com/91491273/waymo-vehicle-hit-a-child-what-can-we-learn-from-the-incident https://www.fastcompany.com/91491273/waymo-vehicle-hit-a-chi....

kikki 8mo ago

I own a Tesla (and subscribe to "FSD", >70% of my miles are FSD without issue). As it stands though, Waymo is by every metric objectively better at "autonomous driving". I would also love to see every car brand have full autonomous driving. It seems like you think you must be in one camp or another, and that one has to "beat" the other - but that's not true. Both can be successful - wouldn't that be a great world?

reitzensteinm 8mo ago

Sure. I'll bet you that in calendar year 2028 Waymo has more paid passenger trips than Tesla. Loser donates $1k USD to Doctors Without Borders. I'm not a camera only doomer, and expect that in ten years Waymo will also not use Lidar, or that the units will be incredibly cheap and well integrated. But I think the pro Tesla camp is exaggerating how quickly the march of 9s will happen for them, and underestimating and how quickly Waymo will expand in the next few years.

bdangubic 8mo ago
I am in on this as well and will do 10-1, I will donate $10k for any $1k pledged (would easily do 100-1 as I am sure Tesla will kill robotaxi within next 2 years “to focus on alienrobots on Moon Data Centers”)
- leesec 7mo ago
  OK I'm happy to book 10k on this at 10-1. Or whatever the max is you're OK with betting. Prefer just to give to eachother then donate. Please respond if you're serious and we can trade details
leesec 7mo ago
Will happily take this bet and also happy to 10x it if you want. Would prefer we just pay each other though. You can donate my money if you want
- reitzensteinm 7mo ago
  Proceeds going to charity is a must for me - it keeps it friendly and significantly reduces the impact of counterparty risk. There's a reason Long Now uses this format, and I'm happy to use their platform and pay the fee: https://longbets.org/rules/ https://longbets.org/rules/ Email is reitzensteinm@gmail.com if you're interested.