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Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in

by phicoh 8mo ago

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine. Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time. For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russia. Even getting the currently occupied land back is mostly optional.

ivan_gammel 8mo ago
This war has already changed. Near-stalemate on the front lines, exchange of strikes on civilian infrastructure (Ukraine made to Belgorod what Russia made to Kiev). It‘s a nuclear war without nukes, aiming at strategic defeat without advancing armies. And Russia definitely has more resources for it.
- drysine 8mo ago
  >It‘s a nuclear war without nukes No, it's not. Even Ukrainians rarely target civilians.
  - ivan_gammel 8mo ago
    A few days ago Ukraine knocked out central heating infrastructure in Belgorod, a regional capital with 350k people, which is unlikely to be repaired until spring. Two civilians repairing it from previous strikes were killed. Whether this is rare or not, it doesn’t change anything about what I said about changing character of the war: both sides largely gave up on trying to win on the battlefield and now attack energy infrastructure of each other, putting pressure on civilian population.
    - drysine 8mo ago
      Targeting dual-purpose infrastructure is not the same as targeting civilians. The infra can be repaired, people cannot be resurrected.
      - ivan_gammel 8mo ago
        When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. Look at the recent terrorist attack in Berlin by far left extremists: blackout of a single district resulted in at least one known direct casualty. How many people will die of hypothermia or inability to get help being locked in a high rise residential building? This is happening now in many places in Ukraine as well as in border regions of Russia. I do think it’s the same as targeting civilians directly.
        drysine 8mo ago
        >When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Not if that city's industry is contributing to the war effort. >Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. You can say that about Western sanctions on Russia too. How many people have died because of a single MRI scanner or cancer drug that couldn't be bought by a Russian hospital? Was it the "nuclear war without nukes" since the day the West imposed blanket sanctions on Russian economy? Or did that "nuclear war without nukes" started in 2014-2015 when the Ukraine cut electricity and water supply to Crimea? "It has one goal - terror", right?
        ivan_gammel 8mo ago
        I really don’t understand your point. Are you questioning the choice of metaphor? Ukraine cutting supply of electricity and water to Crimea did demonstrate the attitude of the Ukrainian government to people it considered once their citizen. It obviously wasn’t a part of the current chapter of the war.
        drysine 8mo ago
        >Are you questioning the choice of metaphor? Yes, there is nothing like 'nuclear war without nukes' that is happening here. And I was trying to demonstrate that your logic seem to lead to conclusion that the 'nuclear war without nukes' started in 2014. >to people it considered once their citizen It is still considering them Ukrainian citizens.
  - don_esteban 8mo ago
    They do target civilians. It is just not convenient to show it in the western sources, so you don't know about it. However, it is true that they do not do it on the scale Israel is doing.
    - drysine 8mo ago
      They do, but rarely. And I'm Russian, I don't depend on Western sources.
atmavatar 8mo ago
> Even getting the currently occupied land back is mostly optional. That's only true in the short term. If Russia gets out of the war with Ukraine with territory gains, that only serves as incentive to start up again after Russia can regroup. After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR. Of course, taking back the occupied land is also easier said than done, as it would severely weaken Putin domestically to have expended all these resources and lives for nothing. There's no way he can allow that. Both countries are in a catch-22.
- ivan_gammel 8mo ago
  > After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR. This was never a stated goal.
  - majewsky 8mo ago
    > "I have said many times that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one nation, in fact. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours [...] But you know we have an old parable, an old rule: wherever a Russian soldier steps, it is ours." https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/6/27/putin-confirms-he-wants-all-of-ukraine-as-europe-steps-up-military-aid https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/6/27/putin-confirms-...
    - ivan_gammel 8mo ago
      I’m well aware of this quote. It does not imply that there was at any moment of time a goal to seize the entire Ukraine or to restore USSR.
      - clort 8mo ago
        That they sent special forces to Kyiv to take over the government on the first days of the invasion is not implication?
        8mo ago
drysine 8mo ago
>Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. And Ukrainian military force currently relies on kidnapping men on the street and dispatching them to the front line after minimal training.[0][4] The borders of the Ukraine are closed for any man of conscription age - they can't get out.[1] You can watch the videos with logos of Ukrainian telegram channels and see how it happens[2][3]. Imagine yourself in their place. [0] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis#Border_crossings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis#... [2] https://busification.org/ https://busification.org/ [3] https://t.me/busification https://t.me/busification [4] https://busification.org/article https://busification.org/article

by phicoh 8mo ago

ivan_gammel 8mo ago

This war has already changed. Near-stalemate on the front lines, exchange of strikes on civilian infrastructure (Ukraine made to Belgorod what Russia made to Kiev). It‘s a nuclear war without nukes, aiming at strategic defeat without advancing armies. And Russia definitely has more resources for it.

drysine 8mo ago
>It‘s a nuclear war without nukes No, it's not. Even Ukrainians rarely target civilians.
- ivan_gammel 8mo ago
  A few days ago Ukraine knocked out central heating infrastructure in Belgorod, a regional capital with 350k people, which is unlikely to be repaired until spring. Two civilians repairing it from previous strikes were killed. Whether this is rare or not, it doesn’t change anything about what I said about changing character of the war: both sides largely gave up on trying to win on the battlefield and now attack energy infrastructure of each other, putting pressure on civilian population.
  - drysine 8mo ago
    Targeting dual-purpose infrastructure is not the same as targeting civilians. The infra can be repaired, people cannot be resurrected.
    - ivan_gammel 8mo ago
      When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. Look at the recent terrorist attack in Berlin by far left extremists: blackout of a single district resulted in at least one known direct casualty. How many people will die of hypothermia or inability to get help being locked in a high rise residential building? This is happening now in many places in Ukraine as well as in border regions of Russia. I do think it’s the same as targeting civilians directly.
      - drysine 8mo ago
        >When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Not if that city's industry is contributing to the war effort. >Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. You can say that about Western sanctions on Russia too. How many people have died because of a single MRI scanner or cancer drug that couldn't be bought by a Russian hospital? Was it the "nuclear war without nukes" since the day the West imposed blanket sanctions on Russian economy? Or did that "nuclear war without nukes" started in 2014-2015 when the Ukraine cut electricity and water supply to Crimea? "It has one goal - terror", right?
        ivan_gammel 8mo ago
        I really don’t understand your point. Are you questioning the choice of metaphor? Ukraine cutting supply of electricity and water to Crimea did demonstrate the attitude of the Ukrainian government to people it considered once their citizen. It obviously wasn’t a part of the current chapter of the war.
        drysine 8mo ago
        >Are you questioning the choice of metaphor? Yes, there is nothing like 'nuclear war without nukes' that is happening here. And I was trying to demonstrate that your logic seem to lead to conclusion that the 'nuclear war without nukes' started in 2014. >to people it considered once their citizen It is still considering them Ukrainian citizens.
- don_esteban 8mo ago
  They do target civilians. It is just not convenient to show it in the western sources, so you don't know about it. However, it is true that they do not do it on the scale Israel is doing.
  - drysine 8mo ago
    They do, but rarely. And I'm Russian, I don't depend on Western sources.

atmavatar 8mo ago

> Even getting the currently occupied land back is mostly optional. That's only true in the short term. If Russia gets out of the war with Ukraine with territory gains, that only serves as incentive to start up again after Russia can regroup. After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR. Of course, taking back the occupied land is also easier said than done, as it would severely weaken Putin domestically to have expended all these resources and lives for nothing. There's no way he can allow that. Both countries are in a catch-22.

ivan_gammel 8mo ago
> After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR. This was never a stated goal.
- majewsky 8mo ago
  > "I have said many times that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one nation, in fact. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours [...] But you know we have an old parable, an old rule: wherever a Russian soldier steps, it is ours." https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/6/27/putin-confirms-he-wants-all-of-ukraine-as-europe-steps-up-military-aid https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/6/27/putin-confirms-...
  - ivan_gammel 8mo ago
    I’m well aware of this quote. It does not imply that there was at any moment of time a goal to seize the entire Ukraine or to restore USSR.
    - clort 8mo ago
      That they sent special forces to Kyiv to take over the government on the first days of the invasion is not implication?
      - 8mo ago

drysine 8mo ago

>Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. And Ukrainian military force currently relies on kidnapping men on the street and dispatching them to the front line after minimal training.[0][4] The borders of the Ukraine are closed for any man of conscription age - they can't get out.[1] You can watch the videos with logos of Ukrainian telegram channels and see how it happens[2][3]. Imagine yourself in their place. [0] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis#Border_crossings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis#... [2] https://busification.org/ https://busification.org/ [3] https://t.me/busification https://t.me/busification [4] https://busification.org/article https://busification.org/article