3 ms·

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should dri

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence. I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

wuschel 8mo ago
I think the problem is that there is not much data presented in this article - or other articles of that kind. Systems are resilient - until they are not, and exhibit sudden factures and fast collapse. The question is not whether Russia collapses or not, but who would be making profit from such a scenario, and who is keen on keeping the current state of affairs.
- shevy-java 8mo ago
  Yes. A few get rich. This has always been the case - see Smedley Butler's old analysis about this.
- ivan_gammel 8mo ago
  Russia is a glimpse into the future of America if nothing changes substantially in American political system. It’s a digital surveillance state, an oligarchy which co-opted technocratic elites into a ruling class and exploits mildly oppressed population without going to extremes. It has the technology and resources to maintain status quo for a very long time and absorb moderate shocks like this war.
wiseowise 8mo ago
On top of that current Russia isn’t actually “suffering”, certainly nowhere near 90s levels. Cheap crap from Russia replaced Western produce and those with money can buy grey goods. Putin is doing a “good” job insulating general population from the war.
- twelve40 8mo ago
  lol you can call it crap if it makes you feel better, but McDonalds was replaced by the same vendors, making the same stuff sourced mostly locally as before, using the same processes that McDonalds used, they just don't send their revenue to the US anymore. Same for Ikea (majority of stuff sold at Ikea was sourced locally and continues under local brands), same for Starbucks - Shokoladnitsa is subjectively better and keeps all the $$ locally, but whatever. The level of myths and delusions people confidently post here on this topic is truly impressive.
  - wiseowise 8mo ago
    Uhuh, and Coca Cola was replaced by… Coca Cola from near Asian republics. iPhones and GPUs imported for obscene prices. AutoVAZ is pretty much rebranded Chinese cars. Chinese mine and destroy Russian nature for cheap coal to reduce their emissions rate. Strategic independence my ass.
    - red-iron-pine 8mo ago
      Russia is now China's Canada
general1465 8mo ago
That was true during WW1 and then Russian empire just cracked in 1917, gave up war and turned on itself.
- ivan_gammel 8mo ago
  Which confirms the original thesis, given how much people endured after 1917.
duxup 8mo ago
They're certainly a fatalistic people. That's the real scary part about authoritarianism, people quit caring. They know their leaders are crooks and so on, that's just normal to many of them.
pointlessone 8mo ago
Is it so? They had changed form of government twice in less than a century. Not just head of state or ruling party, form of government. You assume that because their baseline is miserable they can tolerate a lot but there’s a big difference between living a miserable life unter a totalitarian regime barely affording basic necessities, and all the same but starving.
- trymas 8mo ago
  > They had changed form of government twice in less than a century. IMHO ruzzia hasn't changed in ~450-500 years since Ivan the Terrible. No matter how they sell their way of governing to international scene - it's always a tzar rulling with iron fist. There were optimistic glimpses that they will grow out of it, but it always returns back to tzar.
  - pointlessone 8mo ago
    It doesn’t change the fact that people took political action on a massive scale. Both times mostly motivated by unsatisfactory personal circumstance.

wuschel 8mo ago

I think the problem is that there is not much data presented in this article - or other articles of that kind. Systems are resilient - until they are not, and exhibit sudden factures and fast collapse. The question is not whether Russia collapses or not, but who would be making profit from such a scenario, and who is keen on keeping the current state of affairs.

shevy-java 8mo ago
Yes. A few get rich. This has always been the case - see Smedley Butler's old analysis about this.
ivan_gammel 8mo ago
Russia is a glimpse into the future of America if nothing changes substantially in American political system. It’s a digital surveillance state, an oligarchy which co-opted technocratic elites into a ruling class and exploits mildly oppressed population without going to extremes. It has the technology and resources to maintain status quo for a very long time and absorb moderate shocks like this war.

wiseowise 8mo ago

On top of that current Russia isn’t actually “suffering”, certainly nowhere near 90s levels. Cheap crap from Russia replaced Western produce and those with money can buy grey goods. Putin is doing a “good” job insulating general population from the war.

twelve40 8mo ago
lol you can call it crap if it makes you feel better, but McDonalds was replaced by the same vendors, making the same stuff sourced mostly locally as before, using the same processes that McDonalds used, they just don't send their revenue to the US anymore. Same for Ikea (majority of stuff sold at Ikea was sourced locally and continues under local brands), same for Starbucks - Shokoladnitsa is subjectively better and keeps all the $$ locally, but whatever. The level of myths and delusions people confidently post here on this topic is truly impressive.
- wiseowise 8mo ago
  Uhuh, and Coca Cola was replaced by… Coca Cola from near Asian republics. iPhones and GPUs imported for obscene prices. AutoVAZ is pretty much rebranded Chinese cars. Chinese mine and destroy Russian nature for cheap coal to reduce their emissions rate. Strategic independence my ass.
  - red-iron-pine 8mo ago
    Russia is now China's Canada

general1465 8mo ago

That was true during WW1 and then Russian empire just cracked in 1917, gave up war and turned on itself.

ivan_gammel 8mo ago
Which confirms the original thesis, given how much people endured after 1917.

duxup 8mo ago

They're certainly a fatalistic people. That's the real scary part about authoritarianism, people quit caring. They know their leaders are crooks and so on, that's just normal to many of them.

pointlessone 8mo ago

Is it so? They had changed form of government twice in less than a century. Not just head of state or ruling party, form of government. You assume that because their baseline is miserable they can tolerate a lot but there’s a big difference between living a miserable life unter a totalitarian regime barely affording basic necessities, and all the same but starving.

trymas 8mo ago
> They had changed form of government twice in less than a century. IMHO ruzzia hasn't changed in ~450-500 years since Ivan the Terrible. No matter how they sell their way of governing to international scene - it's always a tzar rulling with iron fist. There were optimistic glimpses that they will grow out of it, but it always returns back to tzar.
- pointlessone 8mo ago
  It doesn’t change the fact that people took political action on a massive scale. Both times mostly motivated by unsatisfactory personal circumstance.