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It'll be fine. The supply chain for these components is inelastic, but that means once manufacturing capacity increases, it'll stay there. We'll see lower price

by post-it 8mo ago

It'll be fine. The supply chain for these components is inelastic, but that means once manufacturing capacity increases, it'll stay there. We'll see lower prices, especially if there is an AI crash and a mass hardware selloff like some people are predicting.

StopDisinfo910 8mo ago
True if production capacity increases but it's an oligopoly and manufacturers are being very cautious because they don't want to cut into their margins. That's the problem with concentration. The market becomes ineffective for customers.
- Maxion 8mo ago
  It's not about cutting in to their margins, if they end up scaling up production it will take several years and cost an untold amount of billions. When the AI bubble pops, if there's not replacement deman there's a very real chance of them going bankrupt.
cubefox 8mo ago
> According to Mosley, Seagate is not expanding its production capacities for now. Growth is to come only from higher-capacity hard drives, not from additional unit numbers.
mrtksn 8mo ago
If it takes 2 years to increase, after 2 years everything will be thin clients already. Completely locked in, fully under control and everybody used to it. Very dystopian TBH.
- post-it 8mo ago
  You're going to throw out all your computers in two years?
  - mrtksn 8mo ago
    No but you can switch and get comfortable with fully cloud based solutions when you your computer ages and the prices for the now one are through the roof.
zvqcMMV6Zcr 8mo ago
Server grade hardware (rack blades) is already poor fit for consumer needs and AI dedicated hardware straight up requires external liquid cooling systems. It will be expensive to adopt them.
- m4rtink 8mo ago
  Strip it for usable parts (DRAM/VRAM/NANAD chips, maybe also some of the controllers), then recover any valuable metals (copper heat sinks, gold on contact pins), simple as that. :)
wongarsu 8mo ago
The number of HDDs sold has been in decline for over a decade. I doubt there is massive appetite for expanding production capacity On the other hand the total storage capacity shipped each year has risen, as a combination of HDDs getting larger and larger, and demand shifting from smaller consumer HDDs to larger data center, enterprise and NAS HDDs. I'm not sure how flexible those production lines are, but maybe the reaction will be shifting even more capacity to higher-capacity drives with cutting-edge technology

by post-it 8mo ago

StopDisinfo910 8mo ago

True if production capacity increases but it's an oligopoly and manufacturers are being very cautious because they don't want to cut into their margins. That's the problem with concentration. The market becomes ineffective for customers.

Maxion 8mo ago
It's not about cutting in to their margins, if they end up scaling up production it will take several years and cost an untold amount of billions. When the AI bubble pops, if there's not replacement deman there's a very real chance of them going bankrupt.

cubefox 8mo ago

> According to Mosley, Seagate is not expanding its production capacities for now. Growth is to come only from higher-capacity hard drives, not from additional unit numbers.

mrtksn 8mo ago

If it takes 2 years to increase, after 2 years everything will be thin clients already. Completely locked in, fully under control and everybody used to it. Very dystopian TBH.

post-it 8mo ago
You're going to throw out all your computers in two years?
- mrtksn 8mo ago
  No but you can switch and get comfortable with fully cloud based solutions when you your computer ages and the prices for the now one are through the roof.

zvqcMMV6Zcr 8mo ago

Server grade hardware (rack blades) is already poor fit for consumer needs and AI dedicated hardware straight up requires external liquid cooling systems. It will be expensive to adopt them.

m4rtink 8mo ago
Strip it for usable parts (DRAM/VRAM/NANAD chips, maybe also some of the controllers), then recover any valuable metals (copper heat sinks, gold on contact pins), simple as that. :)

wongarsu 8mo ago

The number of HDDs sold has been in decline for over a decade. I doubt there is massive appetite for expanding production capacity On the other hand the total storage capacity shipped each year has risen, as a combination of HDDs getting larger and larger, and demand shifting from smaller consumer HDDs to larger data center, enterprise and NAS HDDs. I'm not sure how flexible those production lines are, but maybe the reaction will be shifting even more capacity to higher-capacity drives with cutting-edge technology