2 ms·

You're overthinking it. Trump doesn't play 5D chess or whatever, he doesn't think in terms of grand global strategy. He's got dementia and can't string five wo

You're overthinking it. Trump doesn't play 5D chess or whatever, he doesn't think in terms of grand global strategy. He's got dementia and can't string five words together without going off on a tangent. The only model you need of Trump's decision making process is this: He's doing what would have been a good idea when he was a young man. His formative years have etched a set of policies into his brain, and there's no way he'll unlearn decades and decades of out-dated geopolitics in his sunset years. Oil was critical in the 70s and 80s![1] The US was a net importer, unlike now. That's why he thinks controlling the oil is so important. That's all. No other reason. That's why industry heads are all looking at each with raised eyebrows and silently mouthing "What the f%#$? Why would we invest in that!?" Similarly with tariffs: They might have made sense decades ago, before the USA become so deeply entwined in global production chains, before all manufactured goods got complicated. Ditto with coal. It was the cheapest and best source of energy... in the 80s. [1] There were oil crises in 1973 and 1979, and imports peaked in 1980 when Trump was in his 40s.

ggm 8mo ago
Somebody on staff dreamed this up, he's just saying yes. I agree to the above being how it sold to him, but he didn't think this up, I would expect somebody else decided this was their 4D chess move, and he got the headlines.
- jiggawatts 8mo ago
  That too! It's pretty obvious that he's being taken advantage of by everyone he meets. If this was happening to some kindly grandpa in an old folks home, you'd call it elder abuse. It was most obvious with the $10 trillion Ukraine minerals deal, which was nonsense cooked up by a senator to "sell" Trump on the merits of allying with Ukraine long-term. Russia tried this approach too. Their offer is $12 trillion dollars -- of course it's more than what Ukraine supposedly had on the table -- a laughable amount considering their entire GDP is only $2 trillion! Even if they gave the USA something crazy like 10% of their gross domestic production (most of which is not exportable!) this would take 60 years of ruinous payments. You can only throw a number like this at someone if you're absolutely certain that they're totally innumerate and won't laugh in your face. Think about the second-order implications of this: multiple people in the Whitehouse or Congress are confident in their knowledge that Trump can't tell the difference between a billion and a trillion, and/or has no idea about the size of another country's economy.[1] Just to clarify: This is not "my opinion" about his numeracy, or lack thereof! This is the opinion of multiple senior staff who have his ear. [1] Think back to my point about Trump's world view being "dated" to the 1970s and 80s: Back then, Russia's GDP was on par with the United States -- they were roughly equal superpowers! That's where he gets his intuition from, his ballpark numbers, relative strength, etc... THAT is why he treats Putin as an equal instead of a tinpot dictator that just happens to have nukes.
SanjayMehta 8mo ago
That's an interesting insight into his background. Now that you've mentioned it, there was at least one oil CEO who called Venezuela "uninvestable." https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/economy/venezuela-is-uninvestable-why-us-oil-giants-are-shunning-trumps-100-bn-gamble-article-153424652 https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/economy/venezu...

ggm 8mo ago

Somebody on staff dreamed this up, he's just saying yes. I agree to the above being how it sold to him, but he didn't think this up, I would expect somebody else decided this was their 4D chess move, and he got the headlines.

jiggawatts 8mo ago
That too! It's pretty obvious that he's being taken advantage of by everyone he meets. If this was happening to some kindly grandpa in an old folks home, you'd call it elder abuse. It was most obvious with the $10 trillion Ukraine minerals deal, which was nonsense cooked up by a senator to "sell" Trump on the merits of allying with Ukraine long-term. Russia tried this approach too. Their offer is $12 trillion dollars -- of course it's more than what Ukraine supposedly had on the table -- a laughable amount considering their entire GDP is only $2 trillion! Even if they gave the USA something crazy like 10% of their gross domestic production (most of which is not exportable!) this would take 60 years of ruinous payments. You can only throw a number like this at someone if you're absolutely certain that they're totally innumerate and won't laugh in your face. Think about the second-order implications of this: multiple people in the Whitehouse or Congress are confident in their knowledge that Trump can't tell the difference between a billion and a trillion, and/or has no idea about the size of another country's economy.[1] Just to clarify: This is not "my opinion" about his numeracy, or lack thereof! This is the opinion of multiple senior staff who have his ear. [1] Think back to my point about Trump's world view being "dated" to the 1970s and 80s: Back then, Russia's GDP was on par with the United States -- they were roughly equal superpowers! That's where he gets his intuition from, his ballpark numbers, relative strength, etc... THAT is why he treats Putin as an equal instead of a tinpot dictator that just happens to have nukes.

SanjayMehta 8mo ago

That's an interesting insight into his background. Now that you've mentioned it, there was at least one oil CEO who called Venezuela "uninvestable." https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/economy/venezuela-is-uninvestable-why-us-oil-giants-are-shunning-trumps-100-bn-gamble-article-153424652 https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/economy/venezu...