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My philosophy is to try and model the trajectories of these systems and build rigging around where the curve is flat (e.g. models have been producing big balls
by CuriouslyC 8mo ago
My philosophy is to try and model the trajectories of these systems and build rigging around where the curve is flat (e.g. models have been producing big balls of mud since the beginning and this hasn't improved meaningfully). Models also have a strong mean bias that I don't expect to go away any time soon.
Trying to outsmart the models at core behaviors over time is asking to re-learn the bitter lesson though.
- noosphr 8mo agoThe issue is that finding where the curve is flat reuiqres either intuition or a lot of money. The contrapositive of the bitter lesson is that any hand crafted system will over any market meanginfil time scale outperform a system using data and compute.