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My contingency plan is that if AI leaves me unable to get a job, we are all fucked and society as a whole will have to fix the situation and if it doesn’t, ther

My contingency plan is that if AI leaves me unable to get a job, we are all fucked and society as a whole will have to fix the situation and if it doesn’t, there is nothing I could have done about it anyway.

everettde 9mo ago
this has been me ever since my philosophy undergrad.
tired-turtle 9mo ago
This is a sensible plan, given your username.
- nikkwong 9mo ago
  Yeah seriously. Don't people understand the fact that society is not good at mopping up messes like this—there has been a K shaped economy for several decades now and most Americans have something like $400 in their bank accounts. The bottom had already fallen out for them, and help still hasn't arrived. I think it's more likely that what really happens is that white collar workers, especially the ones on the margin, join this pool—and there is a lot of suffering for a long time. Personally, rather devolving into nihilism, I'd rather try to hedge against suffering that fate. Now is the time to invest and save money. (or yesterday)
  - sarchertech 9mo ago
    If white collar workers as a whole suffer severe economic setback over a short term timespan, your savings and investments won’t help you. Unless you’re investing in guns, ammo, food, and a bunker. We’re talking worse unemployment than depression era Germany. And structurally more significant unemployment because the people losing their jobs were formally very high earners.
    - nikkwong 9mo ago
      That’s the cataclysmic outcome, though. Although I deemed that that’s certainly possible and I would put a double digit percentage probability on it, another very likely outcome is a very severe recession, or a recession, wear a lot of, but not all, white collar work is wiped out. Maybe there’s a significant restructuring in the economy I think in a scenario like that, which also seems to be in the realm of possibility, I think having resources still matters. Speech to text, sorry for the poor grammar.
      - sarchertech 9mo ago
        It’s definitely possible that there’s an impact that is bad but not cataclysmic. I figure in thst case though my regular savings is enough to switch to something else. I could retire now if I was willing to move somewhere cheap and live on $60k a year. There’s a lot of things that could cause that level of recession though without the need for AI. I do also think the mid level bad outcome isn’t super likely because of AI is good enough to replace a lot of white collar jobs, I think it could replace almost all of them.
chadcmulligan 9mo ago
As a fellow chad I concur. Though I am improving my poker skills - games of chance will still be around
- selylindi 9mo ago
  You likely already know, but the "Pluribus" poker bot was beating humans back in 2019. Games of chance will be around if people are around, but you'll have to be careful to ensure you're playing against people, unassisted people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)
  - chadcmulligan 9mo ago
    Yeah, thanks, I only play live games. I'm in australia so online poker is illegal here. I was thinking of getting a vpn and having a play online, then I saw this recently https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/1qi69fr/a_poker_bot_farm_where_multiple_bots_sit_at_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/1qi69...
    - Gigachad 9mo ago
      So much of these degenerate online gambling / "investment" platforms are illegal here for good reason. If you are just a normal person playing fairly, you are being scammed. Same for things like Polymarket, the only winners are the people with insider knowledge.
      - chadcmulligan 9mo ago
        Even horse racing, it's a solved problem, and if you start winning they'll just cancel your a/c (happened to a friend of mine)

everettde 9mo ago

this has been me ever since my philosophy undergrad.

tired-turtle 9mo ago

This is a sensible plan, given your username.

nikkwong 9mo ago
Yeah seriously. Don't people understand the fact that society is not good at mopping up messes like this—there has been a K shaped economy for several decades now and most Americans have something like $400 in their bank accounts. The bottom had already fallen out for them, and help still hasn't arrived. I think it's more likely that what really happens is that white collar workers, especially the ones on the margin, join this pool—and there is a lot of suffering for a long time. Personally, rather devolving into nihilism, I'd rather try to hedge against suffering that fate. Now is the time to invest and save money. (or yesterday)
- sarchertech 9mo ago
  If white collar workers as a whole suffer severe economic setback over a short term timespan, your savings and investments won’t help you. Unless you’re investing in guns, ammo, food, and a bunker. We’re talking worse unemployment than depression era Germany. And structurally more significant unemployment because the people losing their jobs were formally very high earners.
  - nikkwong 9mo ago
    That’s the cataclysmic outcome, though. Although I deemed that that’s certainly possible and I would put a double digit percentage probability on it, another very likely outcome is a very severe recession, or a recession, wear a lot of, but not all, white collar work is wiped out. Maybe there’s a significant restructuring in the economy I think in a scenario like that, which also seems to be in the realm of possibility, I think having resources still matters. Speech to text, sorry for the poor grammar.
    - sarchertech 9mo ago
      It’s definitely possible that there’s an impact that is bad but not cataclysmic. I figure in thst case though my regular savings is enough to switch to something else. I could retire now if I was willing to move somewhere cheap and live on $60k a year. There’s a lot of things that could cause that level of recession though without the need for AI. I do also think the mid level bad outcome isn’t super likely because of AI is good enough to replace a lot of white collar jobs, I think it could replace almost all of them.

chadcmulligan 9mo ago

As a fellow chad I concur. Though I am improving my poker skills - games of chance will still be around

selylindi 9mo ago
You likely already know, but the "Pluribus" poker bot was beating humans back in 2019. Games of chance will be around if people are around, but you'll have to be careful to ensure you're playing against people, unassisted people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)
- chadcmulligan 9mo ago
  Yeah, thanks, I only play live games. I'm in australia so online poker is illegal here. I was thinking of getting a vpn and having a play online, then I saw this recently https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/1qi69fr/a_poker_bot_farm_where_multiple_bots_sit_at_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/1qi69...
  - Gigachad 9mo ago
    So much of these degenerate online gambling / "investment" platforms are illegal here for good reason. If you are just a normal person playing fairly, you are being scammed. Same for things like Polymarket, the only winners are the people with insider knowledge.
    - chadcmulligan 9mo ago
      Even horse racing, it's a solved problem, and if you start winning they'll just cancel your a/c (happened to a friend of mine)