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This is why I am bullish on Google. I think motorola with Google will eventually figure it out and will take half of those $5B+ mobile profits from Samsung.

by ameyamk 14y ago

lostlogin 14y ago
I suggest reading Asymco before backing that idea with cash. His stats on cell phone makers which are down on their luck is sobering. My short (and hopefully not too inaccurate summary) is that once a cell phone maker stops making money, they never recover. Edit for spelling
- ZeroGravitas 14y ago
  Personally I'm glad I didn't put any money on Asymco's predictions back when he thought Modular(i.e. Android + WinPhone combined) was going to be limited to 30% of the market (last time I checked Android was about 70% on it's own) and that the companies with the right idea where Interdependant (i.e. RIM and Nokia). Ouch. What do you have to believe for an Android dominated future? (from end of 2010): http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe-for-an-android-dominated-future/ http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... quote: "So what’s the bottom line? For an Android dominant future, several conditions must be met; one will need to believe all of these to be true: * The addressable market for modular solutions will have to grow much faster than that of inter-dependent vendors. [The chart shows in-line growth--again due to the overall growth of the market. The green guys above won't just roll over.] * The split of licenses between Android and Windows Phone within the addressable market must favor Android. [Again, this is unlikely as "politics" will interfere. (I won't even touch IP issues.)] * The current modular vendors will not become inter-dependent or the current inter-dependent vendors will become modular. [Now why would they tear themselves apart if they are growing?] * The profitability of Android vendors must be high enough to make modularity sustainable [more about this later.]" So to believe in an Android dominated future, you'd need to believe 4 things, that he's sure won't happen, that all turned out to happen, and to an extreme degree (e.g. Android vs Winphone market share which he predicts at roughly 10/20 percentage points is more like 70/5, Samsung is clearly making Android profitable, Nokia shopped itself to both Android and Winphone and no-one would be surprised if RIM did likewise, etc. etc.). Does this mean he believes in an Android dominated future now? Somehow I doubt it.
  - lostlogin 14y ago
    All good points. Clearly you have been reading him for longer than I. Perhaps his long term predictions are worse than I realised.

This is why I am bullish on Google. I think motorola with Google will eventually figure it out and will take half of those $5B+ mobile profits from Samsung.

by ameyamk 14y ago

This is why I am bullish on Google. I think motorola with Google will eventually figure it out and will take half of those $5B+ mobile profits from Samsung.

lostlogin 14y ago

I suggest reading Asymco before backing that idea with cash. His stats on cell phone makers which are down on their luck is sobering. My short (and hopefully not too inaccurate summary) is that once a cell phone maker stops making money, they never recover. Edit for spelling

ZeroGravitas 14y ago
Personally I'm glad I didn't put any money on Asymco's predictions back when he thought Modular(i.e. Android + WinPhone combined) was going to be limited to 30% of the market (last time I checked Android was about 70% on it's own) and that the companies with the right idea where Interdependant (i.e. RIM and Nokia). Ouch. What do you have to believe for an Android dominated future? (from end of 2010): http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe-for-an-android-dominated-future/ http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe... quote: "So what’s the bottom line? For an Android dominant future, several conditions must be met; one will need to believe all of these to be true: * The addressable market for modular solutions will have to grow much faster than that of inter-dependent vendors. [The chart shows in-line growth--again due to the overall growth of the market. The green guys above won't just roll over.] * The split of licenses between Android and Windows Phone within the addressable market must favor Android. [Again, this is unlikely as "politics" will interfere. (I won't even touch IP issues.)] * The current modular vendors will not become inter-dependent or the current inter-dependent vendors will become modular. [Now why would they tear themselves apart if they are growing?] * The profitability of Android vendors must be high enough to make modularity sustainable [more about this later.]" So to believe in an Android dominated future, you'd need to believe 4 things, that he's sure won't happen, that all turned out to happen, and to an extreme degree (e.g. Android vs Winphone market share which he predicts at roughly 10/20 percentage points is more like 70/5, Samsung is clearly making Android profitable, Nokia shopped itself to both Android and Winphone and no-one would be surprised if RIM did likewise, etc. etc.). Does this mean he believes in an Android dominated future now? Somehow I doubt it.
- lostlogin 14y ago
  All good points. Clearly you have been reading him for longer than I. Perhaps his long term predictions are worse than I realised.