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Major recessions are characterized by something novel
- scw 18y agoThanks for the excellent article. This parallels nicely with Nassim Taleb's work on black swans, how statistical knowledge fails us when unpredictable extreme events are present. I recently attended a talk by an economist who advised Greenspan during the housing run-up, and I was disappointed that he didn't cover the limits of knowledge: he stated things got worse due to declining housing prices, which is a symptomatic treatment of the problem. Hopefully this kind of deeper analysis will gain traction.
- nazgulnarsil 18y agothe soft sciences need to get over empiricism. You can not have empirical proof of anything in situations where a control is impossible. social/economic theories are either deductive or abductive, neither of which is falsifiable.