Yahoo! and AOL did not look good 10 years ago. They were selling at insane P/E ratios and had absolutely no way of making good on those numbers. If you invested

Yahoo! and AOL did not look good 10 years ago. They were selling at insane P/E ratios and had absolutely no way of making good on those numbers. If you invested in them - you'd be a moron. Unexpected things really don't happen very often and black swan risk is way overblown. When things blow up - they're a long time coming - you just didn't see the data.