4 ms·

The article links to an article about Sagans' prediction of the decline of america. Strangely fitting nowadays. > I have a foreboding of an America in my child

by scns 8mo ago

The article links to an article about Sagans' prediction of the decline of america. Strangely fitting nowadays. > I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness… https://www.openculture.com/2025/02/carl-sagan-predicts-the-decline-of-america-unable-to-know-whats-true.html https://www.openculture.com/2025/02/carl-sagan-predicts-the-...

clawlrbot 8mo ago
[flagged]
- mentalgear 8mo ago
  So openClaw bots are now even infesting HN with absolutely non-sense phrases ? WTF. Would be interesting what the recent stats on this say @dang / e.g. % new registrations since the claw-debacle, profiles with claw in their username , etc.
kgwxd 8mo ago
Sounds like he just read history, noticed repeating patterns, and believed his own eyes. It sucks that makes him some kind of special person, instead of "people" just being the kind of thing that commonly does stuff like that.
- deron12 8mo ago
  Is it possible to get people to think critically and self-reflect, as a third party? The answer to that question lies in the bottom of a cup of hemlock.
  - illithid0 8mo ago
    I don't know, man. I'm at a point where not even the tangible effects on me that the policies and decisions some members of my family endorse are enough to get them to think twice. I can sit right in front of them and describe the problems I'm now dealing with and point out the exact legislative changes that caused them and it's like their brains turn off until the subject changes. More than happy to pray for me, though.
    - claytongulick 8mo ago
      Do you think there's a possibility that while they may love you and sympathize with your struggles, they recognize that with any policy some people will be negatively affected? The idea is to have political policy that minimizes harm and maximizes benefit, for the most people. Is it possible that this is the way they are viewing it, and that perhaps you are the one who isn't thinking critically because you're being directly negatively affected?
      - nrb 8mo ago
        Definitely reasonable to question oneself in this way. But realistically, if someone is unwilling to engage with you about policies that negatively affect you, but instead offer their prayers, that "perhaps..." is working overtime.
      - illithid0 8mo ago
        Normally I'm pretty good at extending intellectual generosity. But for them, it's at the level of voting for a candidate who supports cuts to Medicaid and then wondering why it's suddenly infinitely harder for me to get through to anyone about assistance (not even for myself, for them) following staffing cuts. "This isn't what I voted for" is a common utterance. They can't help themselves, so I do my best to help, while they undercut my options to help them.
- godelski 8mo ago
  [dead]
mdelias 8mo ago
Brian Williams reads and recites the above (2021) https://youtu.be/utjK0EtkU8U?si=vWYdumffcgxKvkFV https://youtu.be/utjK0EtkU8U?si=vWYdumffcgxKvkFV
- janez2 8mo ago
  your link has a "si=" tracking parameter
palmotea 8mo ago
> The article links to an article about Sagans' prediction of the decline of america. Strangely fitting nowadays. >> I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness… Not really. His prediction actually seems pretty off-base, with only some bits that are coincidentally correct. For instance, he seems to attributing the cause of that decline to superstition, when it was really capitalism infected by the shareholder-theory-of-value and financialization pursued by really smart and rational people focused on pursing their narrow self-interest. I don't know the full context of that passage, but my read comports with my understanding of Sagan's biases.
- xhkkffbf 8mo ago
  I kind of agree. I find that almost everyone I meet has a firm grasp on tech topics affect their lives. From social media to privacy, they seem to understand the fundamental questions even though they aren't programmers or CISOs or whatever.
- krapp 8mo ago
  > when it was really capitalism infected by the shareholder-theory-of-value and fictionalization pursued by really smart and rational people focused on their personal self-interest. That's one factor, sure. Another factor is the widespread rejection of mainstream science and consensus reality in favor of conspiracy theories that feed into populism and authoritarianism. For all of capitalism's faults, you can at least have an educated society with technological and scientific progress under it. You can't have any of that when people who don't believe germs or real or who do believe wildfires are caused by Jewish space lasers are allowed anywhere near positions of power. When belief in imaginary satanic pedophile cults swing elections but actual pedophiles face no consequences. It doesn't seem entirely wrong to me.
fmlpp 8mo ago
What a vision.
godelski 8mo ago
Asimov and Feynman also spoke about similar things (along with many others) In 1980, Asimov famously wrote The Cult of Ignorance[0], criticizing the rise of anti-intellectualism. Where there was a strong political push of "don't trust the experts". He criticizes claims that sound familiar today "America has a right to know" on the basis of this being meaningless without literacy. He clarifies that literacy is far more than being able to actually read words on a page, but to interpret and process them. Asimov isn't being pretentious, his definition is consistent with how we determine reading levels[2] and his critique would be that most people do not have that of a Freshman in High School. Hell, it is even in his fiction! It is even in The Foundation and is literally the premise of Profession[3]. Feynman is a bit more scattered, but I think his discussion about the education system in Brazil (in the 50's) says a lot[4]. He talks a lot about how the students could recite the equations, ace all the tests, and achieve everything that looks to be, at least on paper, perfectly academic; but how the students did not really have the deeper understanding of the equations. It is a discussion about literacy. Were he around today I'm sure he'd use the phrase "metric hacking". Anyone that knows Feynman may also be thinking about his Cargo Cult Science[5](a commencement speech at Cal Tech (1974)). This is where his famous quote The first principle is that you must not fool yourself--and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. comes from. But there is a lot of important context surrounding this and it is worth knowing about. [0] Note: 1980 was an election year, and one with a sweeping victory...[1] https://people.bath.ac.uk/mnsbr/papers/Asimov-Newsweek-January_21_1980_p19.pdf https://people.bath.ac.uk/mnsbr/papers/Asimov-Newsweek-Janua... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidentia... [2] https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/reading/achieve.aspx https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/reading/achieve.aspx [3] Profession has been in discussion lately, directly relating to this topic. If you haven't read it I'll say it is one of my favorite's of his. Not as good as Foundation but up there with Nightfall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profession_(novella) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profession_(novella) [4] https://enlightenedidiot.net/random/feynman-on-brazilian-education-system/ https://enlightenedidiot.net/random/feynman-on-brazilian-edu... [5] https://sites.cs.ucsb.edu/~ravenben/cargocult.html https://sites.cs.ucsb.edu/~ravenben/cargocult.html [Edit] I wanted to add Asimov's The Relativity of Wrong. Sometimes I feel it should be required reading before arguing on the internet. I find myself coming back to read it at least once a year https://hermiene.net/essays-trans/relativity_of_wrong.html https://hermiene.net/essays-trans/relativity_of_wrong.html

by scns 8mo ago

clawlrbot 8mo ago

[flagged]

mentalgear 8mo ago
So openClaw bots are now even infesting HN with absolutely non-sense phrases ? WTF. Would be interesting what the recent stats on this say @dang / e.g. % new registrations since the claw-debacle, profiles with claw in their username , etc.

kgwxd 8mo ago

Sounds like he just read history, noticed repeating patterns, and believed his own eyes. It sucks that makes him some kind of special person, instead of "people" just being the kind of thing that commonly does stuff like that.

deron12 8mo ago
Is it possible to get people to think critically and self-reflect, as a third party? The answer to that question lies in the bottom of a cup of hemlock.
- illithid0 8mo ago
  I don't know, man. I'm at a point where not even the tangible effects on me that the policies and decisions some members of my family endorse are enough to get them to think twice. I can sit right in front of them and describe the problems I'm now dealing with and point out the exact legislative changes that caused them and it's like their brains turn off until the subject changes. More than happy to pray for me, though.
  - claytongulick 8mo ago
    Do you think there's a possibility that while they may love you and sympathize with your struggles, they recognize that with any policy some people will be negatively affected? The idea is to have political policy that minimizes harm and maximizes benefit, for the most people. Is it possible that this is the way they are viewing it, and that perhaps you are the one who isn't thinking critically because you're being directly negatively affected?
    - nrb 8mo ago
      Definitely reasonable to question oneself in this way. But realistically, if someone is unwilling to engage with you about policies that negatively affect you, but instead offer their prayers, that "perhaps..." is working overtime.
    - illithid0 8mo ago
      Normally I'm pretty good at extending intellectual generosity. But for them, it's at the level of voting for a candidate who supports cuts to Medicaid and then wondering why it's suddenly infinitely harder for me to get through to anyone about assistance (not even for myself, for them) following staffing cuts. "This isn't what I voted for" is a common utterance. They can't help themselves, so I do my best to help, while they undercut my options to help them.
godelski 8mo ago
[dead]

mdelias 8mo ago

Brian Williams reads and recites the above (2021) https://youtu.be/utjK0EtkU8U?si=vWYdumffcgxKvkFV https://youtu.be/utjK0EtkU8U?si=vWYdumffcgxKvkFV

janez2 8mo ago
your link has a "si=" tracking parameter

palmotea 8mo ago

> The article links to an article about Sagans' prediction of the decline of america. Strangely fitting nowadays. >> I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness… Not really. His prediction actually seems pretty off-base, with only some bits that are coincidentally correct. For instance, he seems to attributing the cause of that decline to superstition, when it was really capitalism infected by the shareholder-theory-of-value and financialization pursued by really smart and rational people focused on pursing their narrow self-interest. I don't know the full context of that passage, but my read comports with my understanding of Sagan's biases.

xhkkffbf 8mo ago
I kind of agree. I find that almost everyone I meet has a firm grasp on tech topics affect their lives. From social media to privacy, they seem to understand the fundamental questions even though they aren't programmers or CISOs or whatever.
krapp 8mo ago
> when it was really capitalism infected by the shareholder-theory-of-value and fictionalization pursued by really smart and rational people focused on their personal self-interest. That's one factor, sure. Another factor is the widespread rejection of mainstream science and consensus reality in favor of conspiracy theories that feed into populism and authoritarianism. For all of capitalism's faults, you can at least have an educated society with technological and scientific progress under it. You can't have any of that when people who don't believe germs or real or who do believe wildfires are caused by Jewish space lasers are allowed anywhere near positions of power. When belief in imaginary satanic pedophile cults swing elections but actual pedophiles face no consequences. It doesn't seem entirely wrong to me.

fmlpp 8mo ago

What a vision.

godelski 8mo ago

Asimov and Feynman also spoke about similar things (along with many others) In 1980, Asimov famously wrote The Cult of Ignorance[0], criticizing the rise of anti-intellectualism. Where there was a strong political push of "don't trust the experts". He criticizes claims that sound familiar today "America has a right to know" on the basis of this being meaningless without literacy. He clarifies that literacy is far more than being able to actually read words on a page, but to interpret and process them. Asimov isn't being pretentious, his definition is consistent with how we determine reading levels[2] and his critique would be that most people do not have that of a Freshman in High School. Hell, it is even in his fiction! It is even in The Foundation and is literally the premise of Profession[3]. Feynman is a bit more scattered, but I think his discussion about the education system in Brazil (in the 50's) says a lot[4]. He talks a lot about how the students could recite the equations, ace all the tests, and achieve everything that looks to be, at least on paper, perfectly academic; but how the students did not really have the deeper understanding of the equations. It is a discussion about literacy. Were he around today I'm sure he'd use the phrase "metric hacking". Anyone that knows Feynman may also be thinking about his Cargo Cult Science[5](a commencement speech at Cal Tech (1974)). This is where his famous quote The first principle is that you must not fool yourself--and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. comes from. But there is a lot of important context surrounding this and it is worth knowing about. [0] Note: 1980 was an election year, and one with a sweeping victory...[1] https://people.bath.ac.uk/mnsbr/papers/Asimov-Newsweek-January_21_1980_p19.pdf https://people.bath.ac.uk/mnsbr/papers/Asimov-Newsweek-Janua... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidentia... [2] https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/reading/achieve.aspx https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/reading/achieve.aspx [3] Profession has been in discussion lately, directly relating to this topic. If you haven't read it I'll say it is one of my favorite's of his. Not as good as Foundation but up there with Nightfall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profession_(novella) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profession_(novella) [4] https://enlightenedidiot.net/random/feynman-on-brazilian-education-system/ https://enlightenedidiot.net/random/feynman-on-brazilian-edu... [5] https://sites.cs.ucsb.edu/~ravenben/cargocult.html https://sites.cs.ucsb.edu/~ravenben/cargocult.html [Edit] I wanted to add Asimov's The Relativity of Wrong. Sometimes I feel it should be required reading before arguing on the internet. I find myself coming back to read it at least once a year https://hermiene.net/essays-trans/relativity_of_wrong.html https://hermiene.net/essays-trans/relativity_of_wrong.html