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What about the possibility that the models so far have always been wrong and if they wrong in the wrong direction you would never hear about them?
by SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
What about the possibility that the models so far have always been wrong and if they wrong in the wrong direction you would never hear about them?
- schiffern 9mo agoPrecisely, it's just a selection effect. There's always uncertainty, and scientists are heavily incentivized to "prune" models that show large effect sizes. The result is the observed systematic underestimations, punctuated by (suspiciously monotonic) upward revisions any time the new data comes out.