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> one party was busy making “bets” on Kalshi This would arguably be much more severe -- and quite likely already happening -- than the whole "congress trading
by morpheuskafka 8mo ago
> one party was busy making “bets” on Kalshi
This would arguably be much more severe -- and quite likely already happening -- than the whole "congress trading stocks" thing because most of those (besides the sports ones) tie very directly to government actions in a way that the economy or a large company in generally doesn't as predictably.
- mikeyouse 8mo agoIt's definitely already happening and should lead to a congressional inquiry if we had a functioning congress: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do
- nemomarx 8mo agoIsn't the whole idea of prediction markets to let insiders bet on things so that you'll get insider info leaked?
- datsci_est_2015 8mo agoMaybe this is fine until it incentivizes easily-achieved but adverse actions that would greatly harm the public. For a silly example, I would imagine the streaker from this year’s Super Bowl is either (a) a complete idiot, or (b) put a significant amount of money on a “prediction market” of there being a streaker at the Super Bowl - more than enough to cover his ticket, legal, and medical costs.
- isleyaardvark 8mo agoThat has already happened before: https://frontofficesports.com/offshore-sportsbook-voids-bets-linked-to-super-bowl-streaker/ https://frontofficesports.com/offshore-sportsbook-voids-bets...
- usefulcat 8mo agoYes and no. AIUI there's generally a lot less liquidity available in prediction markets, which limits the profitability. Even if you have perfect clairvoyance, you still need someone to take the other side of the bet.