3 ms·

Survivorship bias. How many failed and commenters were right?

• spooneybarger 9mo ago
  predicting that a startup will fail is.. well, you got a ton of probability on your side there. so it isn't a particularly impressive thing to be right about.
  • satvikpendem 9mo ago
    Unimpressive doesn't mean incorrect, sometimes it's good to take the side of the most probable. And yet at the same time I am reminded of this quote: > The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. - George Bernard Shaw
    • notduncansmith 9mo ago
      Sometimes adapting oneself is, in fact, progress.
• staticassertion 9mo ago
  I'm not disagreeing, just soliciting. Does anyone have examples of products that failed in the early stages because their implementation was too trivial?
  • tbrownaw 9mo ago
    How exactly are we supposed to hear about something that failed in the early stages?
    • shnock 9mo ago
      By listening to your friends and circle
    • staticassertion 9mo ago
      There are a number of ways. Obviously Dropbox would be one case of "early and didn't fail" that could have been "early and failed", and we would have heard about it.
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