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> I [...] fit a hyperbolic model to each one independently ^ That's your problem right there. Assuming a hyperbolic model would definitely result in some exub
by marifjeren 8mo ago
> I [...] fit a hyperbolic model to each one independently
^ That's your problem right there.
Assuming a hyperbolic model would definitely result in some exuberant predictions but that's no reason to think it's correct.
The blog post contains no justification for that model (besides well it's a "function that hits infinity"). I can model the growth of my bank account the same way but that doesn't make it so. Unfortunately.
- twoodfin 8mo agoIndeed. At various points you could have presumably done an identical analysis with journal articles and climate change, string theory, functional programming… terms & reached structurally the same conclusion. The coming Singularity: When human institutions will cease being able to coherently react to monads!
- azeirah 8mo agoIf I understand the author correctly, he chose the hyperbolic model specifically because the story of "the singularity" _requires_ a function that hits infinity. He's looking for a model that works for the story in the media and runs with it. Your criticism seems to be criticizing the story, not the author's attempt to take it "seriously"
- marifjeren 8mo agoCorrect.