9 ms·

Siracusa on Microsoft

103 points by tmoretti 14y ago

comex 14y ago
Note: 2005.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
- Metrop0218 14y ago
  Ah, I suppose this is on the front page then because some people feel like this is what they're doing. I don't really think so but I do see the train of thought.
majormajor 14y ago
Interestingly, I can see arguments from both sides about whether or not the Windows 8/WinRT moves are risking everything or whether they're just further digging in trying to defend Windows/Office. The changes are big and bold, and a lot of the prerelease Windows 8 criticism has been centered around "they're going to drive all their old users into the hands of Apple/Linux." But at the same time, they're still Windows/Office: a big part of their push is a tablet (and a phone) that can actually use real Office apps. It's adapting what they have to the new market that Apple discovered.
cageface 14y ago
Put simply, to win in the long run, Microsoft must be willing to risk losing it all. The one thing I wouldn't accuse MS of right now is playing a conservative game. If anything I think shoving the "Metro" UI on desktop users is a step too soon, too far.
- SoftwareMaven 14y ago
  I think the UI is the less radical part of their current gambit. Risking their OEM channel by selling their own hardware and risking their VAR channel by encouraging people to do their Windows 8 purchases directly are both major cards that MS has thrown down. What I'm not clear on is whether this is an intentional effort to circumvent the Innovator's Dilema or just chasing Apple. If it's the former, there should come other, interesting steps. If it's the latter, it will just be sad to watch.
  - drivebyacct2 14y ago
    I would suggest a look at production numbers for the Surface and projected sales of OEM Windows 8 licenses. I think "risk" is a bit of a dramatic interpretation, but that's just my opinion.
    - r00fus 14y ago
      How will these translate to actual sales? If Microsoft ships a lot of OEM devices and the manufacturer's channels are stuffed but don't sell - it won't help them at all in the long run. I wish that instead of shoving MetroUI in the user's face by not allowing you to launch directly into desktop shell, they would have done something like Apple's Camera lockscreen slider - it teases you and is there at the bottom, but if you want you can ignore it completely.
      - drivebyacct2 14y ago
        Erm, where did this come from: "Microsoft ships a lot of OEM devices and the manufacturer's channels are stuffed but don't sell".
        drivebyacct2 14y ago
        Is everyone missing the point? I don't know how else to say it, the percent of overall sales of Windows laptop/tablets from Microsoft is likely to be very small. I think it's simply wrong to act like the OEMs are cowering.
      - simonh 14y ago
        Microsoft should win by letting users completely ignore their ground-up rethink of the user interaction model for computing that they're betting the company on. The one that is their only chance of catching up to iOS and Android. The one that, if it fails, will spell the end of their dominance in computing forever. Sure, why wouldn't they want everyone to just ignore that? No big deal.
  - mun2mun 14y ago
- glennsl 14y ago
  Metro on the desktop isn't about creating a better user experience for desktop users. It's about getting developers to make metro apps that provide a good user experience on tablets. Microsoft's biggest problem when entering the tablet market is the sad state of their ecosystem. And to try to fix that, they decided to sacrifice the desktop user experience. I think that's a pretty bold move. It's also a really really stupid move.
  - zmmmmm 14y ago
    > It's also a really really stupid move. Why stupid? I think this demarcates where Android went wrong. Google allowed the tablet OS to ship and run all it's phone apps really badly. That set a terrible precedent and left people wallowing around in a sea of unoptimized apps (the oft repeated claim that Android has no tablet optimized apps is as much that people can't find them as that they don't exist). I think they would have been much better off drawing a line in the sand and promoting explicitly tablet optimized apps and relegating unoptimized ones to a clear secondary status. By contrast, MS is saying, if you want prime real estate for your app in Win8 then it's going to be Metro and hence tablet optimized by default. As a result I am sure that every major software provider is going to ship metro versions of their apps, if only to get themselves onto that metro UI that every user is forced to see by default and into the store in a priority position.
    - glennsl 14y ago
      I agree that it will greatly benefit their tablet ecosystem. No doubt. But at the cost of a lesser desktop user experience. They're throwing away the market domination they already have (to some extent at least), which of course is the backbone of their business, to try to get the money to pay the entrance fee in a market dominated by others, as a late comer with slim chances.
drivebyacct2 14y ago
Compete with your competitors and compete with yourself. RIM slacked off, I would argue Microsoft slacked off.
janisjanis 14y ago
I don't see the financial incentive to develop for Windows RT and the Surface. The iPad is too dominant. Android tablets are munching on the periphery. I just don't see the market acceptance of the Surface. It is not "better" than the iPad. It is a different vision and direction. But why would millions of users follow that vision when iOS and Android offer a compelling enough platform already?
- kooshball 14y ago
  Any app you write for Windows RT will also run on Windows 8, which will have millions of users.
  - captaincrowbar 14y ago
    Yeah, but why bother targeting RT when you can just continue to target plain old Windows? You still run on Windows 8 either way, but you gain Windows 7, Vista, and XP users in exchange for losing the RT tablet users. Unless RT tablets sell beyond anyone's wildest dreams, that's still going to be a net win for a good many years to come.
- babesh 14y ago
  In house corporate development is going to one big driver. Microsoft leveraged Windows dominance into profitability serving enterprise: Office, Windows, Exchange, in-house .net development, etc... They want enterprise to migrate to Windows 8 and develop Metro apps instead of adopting iPads. Consumer adoption is just to prop up enterprise adoption. I would bet that Microsoft makes 2/3 or more of its money from enterprise. Microsoft is money/domination driven rather than focused on delivering value and improving things.
benferris 14y ago
A year or two ago I would have sided with the dominance that the iPad exerts in the market and felt that Microsoft was doomed without a tablet available until Fall 2012, but honestly -- I'm about to switch from my iPhone to Android and purchase a Galaxy Note II as soon as I can get my hands on it and frankly I've got a Mac and several Windows PCs and I still prefer the clusterfuck that is Windows 8 over OS X. Interestingly I think Microsoft still has a chance.
randomfool 14y ago
After being at Microsoft for 5+ years, I consider it much more cocky than paranoid. Cocky because there is a pervasive mindset that if Microsoft builds it that customers will automatically flock. Windows Phone was a wake up call, but most of the company still believes this. Also, their continued focus on Windows and Office continues to suck the life out of many smaller products. There is no escaping the gravitational pull of Windows or Office.
- jbigelow76 14y ago
  You hit the nail on the head about Windows and Office. I think Microsoft could bank (and has to an extent) on customers flocking to its services if they could work on delivering specifics instead of, what seems like for the last decade, just reactions. There are a lot of purchasing managers and CIOs that know that if MS puts out a product in the enterprise space it's at least a safe bet. But they lose that as the enterprise blurs into the realm of the personal and MS makes larger bets into the personal space. Microsoft's problem is that while Windows and Office give MS the freedom to explore new markets those same two things let them treat these new markets as nothing more than multi-billion dollar whims that ultimately leave customers gun shy. I'm probably one of the last ten or so people that still has a Zune subscription (because the price and software are really compelling) but I also know that if they shut the entire thing down tomorrow and told all their Zune customers to go pound sand it wouldn't make a single penny's worth of difference on the Earnings Per Share report at the next quarterly earnings conference call. But while you say that Windows Phone was a wake up call it doesn't seem like it from the outside. When Apple announces things they give dates and prices, Microsoft announces things like the Lumia line, which look great, but they lose when they fail to deliver specifics instead just relying on everybody knowing that anything the demo will be available in the next 6-18 months. MS may have finally turned a corner by not releasing a half baked tablet OS in an effort to fight for the number 2 spot in the tablet wars, they waited until their "perspective" on tablet usage was ready. But still, they failed to outline specific dates and prices until relatively recently. People will "flock" to commitments to specifics, not so much so to "oh, shit if we don't find a MS response to threat X it's going to be bad".
  - 14y ago
nostromo 14y ago
I think Microsoft would be better off today if they had been broken up by the government. Windows, Server, Office, Gaming, and Online as individual companies would all have been powerful, fierce competitors in the aughts. A few of them would already be dead, but others could be incredibly strong. Instead they are a huge conglomeration that lacks vision and direction.
- kooshball 14y ago
  > Instead they are a huge conglomeration that lacks vision and direction. Have you read this? http://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar12/shareholder-letter/index.html http://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar12/shareholder-l... This is the vision. Device and services.
  - mtgx 14y ago
    I think this point was that this needed to happen a long time ago, and not just now as a response to Apple and Google.
manojlds 14y ago
> dominates the experience of the entire (+/- 5%) personal computer market. How can there be entire + 5%? Sometimes people try to be too clever.
beloch 14y ago
There are a couple of interpretations that makes this article interesting 7 years after it was written. 1. Is MS now "risking it all" with Windows 8? Windows 8 is certainly ballsy, but no, MS is not risking it all. The worst case scenario for Win8 is another epic marketing fail like Vista and slow adoption, followed by immediate uptake of Win9. Unlike companies such as RIM that have been largely banished from their core markets by Apple, MS's core market hasn't gone anywhere and isn't going anywhere. MS has expanded their hardware division somewhat (e.g. the Xbox), but to nowhere near the same extent as Apple. MS has not been pushed to the brink such that they need to risk it all to survive. MS hasn't shrunk in fact. The company just looks small now that Apple has shot past them to become so big. Win8 is not a desperate bid for survival, but rather, a new foray into areas MS hasn't been successful in to date. 2. Is Apple now in MS's shoes from half a decade or so ago? iPod - 2001, iPhone - 2007, Ipad - 2010. While Apple hasn't exactly disrupted any industries lately, it's not as if they've had a long dry spell. Still, there are some worrying signs. The iPod was immensely profitable for Apple because it took so long for halfway decent competitors to arise. The iPhone was under siege by Android in a much shorter period of time and the iPad in a shorter time-frame still. The iPad mini actually arrived after it's competition, with inferior specs and a higher price to boot. The only thing it has going for it is branding. Was this a fluke or is Apple losing ground? What is beyond question is that Apple is now a giant with everything to lose rather than the nearly bankrupt company of the late 90's that had just two choices: innovate or die. Apple is sitting on such a giant pile of cash that, instead of trying to innovate, they could easily decide to just keep making their stuff smaller (or bigger) and sue the pants off of anyone who makes anything similar. They could do this, but it's very premature to say that they have. Apple is leaking more product info these days, but it's not like a retina 13" macbook pro was such a surprise that it had to be kept secret. Apple may still have disruptive stuff under wraps somewhere in the dark recesses of Cupertino.
- unfamiliar 14y ago
  >The only thing it has going for it is branding. And the entire iOS ecosystem. It is essentially just a small iPad 2. The iPad 2 now seems to have nothing going for it, except for people with eyesight problems.
Gring 14y ago
This needs [2005] in the title. Prescient timing in the article: "If it's not Google that finally subverts the power structure of the industry, then it'll be someone else...eventually." Just at that time of publication (Nov 2005), Apple worked intensively on the first iOS device (iPhone, first shown 14 months later). John was right - but even he didn't dare to dream that his favorite company (Apple) is the one that eventually subverted the power structure.
fauigerzigerk 14y ago
"Abandon Windows and Office? Sure, it sounds like madness." And it is. It's not an Apple bubble that John Siracusa is living in (if that is still his opinion). It's a consumer/fashion/leasure products bubble. Microsoft is an enterprise software company, and the enterprise is all about managing slow transitions and dealing with a heterogenous hodgepodge of technologies permanently. A company like Microsoft that can build on a broad base of ubiquitous products that their custumers just cannot throw out over night has a very good chance of surviving by evolution not revolution. What could be Microsoft's undoing is if they start to look too much like a desperate also ran in the consumer space instead of telling its enterprise customers how they can transition to the cloud, use virtualization, do big data analysis, manage compliance with regulations, allow secure access through mobile devices, etc. I think what makes Microsoft try so desperately to be a consumer play is that they remember the past when they undermined IBM's power through a partly consumer driven grassroots strategy. They don't want that to happen to themselves and that's what their paranoia makes them focus on. But there's an important difference. Apple doesn't want to be in the enterprise space. They are completely uncompromising about that and for good reason. Apple's strength is to control the entire experience and that's just not possible in the enterprise. Microsoft should certainly help businesses to manage Apple gear, but most of all they should take on Oracle and SAP much more aggressively. Both are vulnerable to a competitor that understands the enterprise, makes software that people don't hate and doesn't overcharge as egregiously as these two do.
- realo 14y ago
  Hum... To paraphrase your comment: "RIM (of BlackBerry fame) is an enterprise smartphone company, and the enterprise is all about managing slow transitions ... blah blah..." RIM is dying. Fast.
  - fauigerzigerk 14y ago
    There's a reason why enterprises often transition slowly: Dependencies. Lots of dependencies between platform components, third party applications, in-house code and data, etc. You picked a single function device that isn't intertwined with much else. Not a good counter example. Just a special case.
allenbrunson 14y ago
Can anyone think what Microsoft is doing now with the Surface is "risking it all?" Because to me, it looks like yet another round of Microsoft's answer to absolutely every new development: Hey, I know, we'll put Windows on it. Here's what "risking it all" would look like: Finally declare Windows is EOL. Put it in maintenance mode, no further updates. First step after that would be to work on an entirely new OS specifically for tablets and phones, without a hint of the old Windows UI anywhere. Then think about what they're going to do next for corporate clients, home PCs, and so on. Yes, it would be massively painful in the short term. But Apple got through a similar transition just fine, when they ditched Mac OS 9. And if Microsoft does not do this, it's just a matter of time until some other company does it for them.
- wrath 14y ago
  So easy to say when you're not responsible for billions dollars of licensing fees for Windows, Office and all the supporting products. I think the new metro UI is risking quite a lot and just this change has everyone up in arms. They have more customers then most of us can every wish for and investors to answer to, so let's not start to assume that change is that easy.
zimbatm 14y ago
It strike me at odds that IBM "lost". Sure it's not controlling the desktop market but in terms of revenue they're very well of. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+microsoft+revenue+vs+ibm+revenue http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+micros...
zimbatm 14y ago
It strikes me at odds when he says that IBM "lost". Sure they're not controlling the desktop market but in terms of revenue they're very well of. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+microsoft+revenue+vs+ibm+revenue http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+micros...
- nmcfarl 14y ago
  Per employee, the spread opens way up, and they aren't looking quite as good. http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+per+employee+vs+microsoft+revenue+per+employee+vs+ibm+revenue+per+employee+&x=0&y=0 http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+per+employe...
b1daly 14y ago
The big problem for the successful incumbent in these innovators dilemma scenarios is that most innovations fail. Most of the upstart challengers will fail. To risk for dominant position for the sake of a long shit chance a second life as upstart innovator is not rational. What is rational is to defend your dominant position to the end as the odds that your company can dominate in New territory is tiny.

103 points by tmoretti 14y ago

comex 14y ago

Note: 2005.

deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
Metrop0218 14y ago
Ah, I suppose this is on the front page then because some people feel like this is what they're doing. I don't really think so but I do see the train of thought.

majormajor 14y ago

Interestingly, I can see arguments from both sides about whether or not the Windows 8/WinRT moves are risking everything or whether they're just further digging in trying to defend Windows/Office. The changes are big and bold, and a lot of the prerelease Windows 8 criticism has been centered around "they're going to drive all their old users into the hands of Apple/Linux." But at the same time, they're still Windows/Office: a big part of their push is a tablet (and a phone) that can actually use real Office apps. It's adapting what they have to the new market that Apple discovered.

cageface 14y ago

Put simply, to win in the long run, Microsoft must be willing to risk losing it all. The one thing I wouldn't accuse MS of right now is playing a conservative game. If anything I think shoving the "Metro" UI on desktop users is a step too soon, too far.

SoftwareMaven 14y ago
I think the UI is the less radical part of their current gambit. Risking their OEM channel by selling their own hardware and risking their VAR channel by encouraging people to do their Windows 8 purchases directly are both major cards that MS has thrown down. What I'm not clear on is whether this is an intentional effort to circumvent the Innovator's Dilema or just chasing Apple. If it's the former, there should come other, interesting steps. If it's the latter, it will just be sad to watch.
- drivebyacct2 14y ago
  I would suggest a look at production numbers for the Surface and projected sales of OEM Windows 8 licenses. I think "risk" is a bit of a dramatic interpretation, but that's just my opinion.
  - r00fus 14y ago
    How will these translate to actual sales? If Microsoft ships a lot of OEM devices and the manufacturer's channels are stuffed but don't sell - it won't help them at all in the long run. I wish that instead of shoving MetroUI in the user's face by not allowing you to launch directly into desktop shell, they would have done something like Apple's Camera lockscreen slider - it teases you and is there at the bottom, but if you want you can ignore it completely.
    - drivebyacct2 14y ago
      Erm, where did this come from: "Microsoft ships a lot of OEM devices and the manufacturer's channels are stuffed but don't sell".
      - drivebyacct2 14y ago
        Is everyone missing the point? I don't know how else to say it, the percent of overall sales of Windows laptop/tablets from Microsoft is likely to be very small. I think it's simply wrong to act like the OEMs are cowering.
    - simonh 14y ago
      Microsoft should win by letting users completely ignore their ground-up rethink of the user interaction model for computing that they're betting the company on. The one that is their only chance of catching up to iOS and Android. The one that, if it fails, will spell the end of their dominance in computing forever. Sure, why wouldn't they want everyone to just ignore that? No big deal.
- mun2mun 14y ago
glennsl 14y ago
Metro on the desktop isn't about creating a better user experience for desktop users. It's about getting developers to make metro apps that provide a good user experience on tablets. Microsoft's biggest problem when entering the tablet market is the sad state of their ecosystem. And to try to fix that, they decided to sacrifice the desktop user experience. I think that's a pretty bold move. It's also a really really stupid move.
- zmmmmm 14y ago
  > It's also a really really stupid move. Why stupid? I think this demarcates where Android went wrong. Google allowed the tablet OS to ship and run all it's phone apps really badly. That set a terrible precedent and left people wallowing around in a sea of unoptimized apps (the oft repeated claim that Android has no tablet optimized apps is as much that people can't find them as that they don't exist). I think they would have been much better off drawing a line in the sand and promoting explicitly tablet optimized apps and relegating unoptimized ones to a clear secondary status. By contrast, MS is saying, if you want prime real estate for your app in Win8 then it's going to be Metro and hence tablet optimized by default. As a result I am sure that every major software provider is going to ship metro versions of their apps, if only to get themselves onto that metro UI that every user is forced to see by default and into the store in a priority position.
  - glennsl 14y ago
    I agree that it will greatly benefit their tablet ecosystem. No doubt. But at the cost of a lesser desktop user experience. They're throwing away the market domination they already have (to some extent at least), which of course is the backbone of their business, to try to get the money to pay the entrance fee in a market dominated by others, as a late comer with slim chances.

drivebyacct2 14y ago

Compete with your competitors and compete with yourself. RIM slacked off, I would argue Microsoft slacked off.

janisjanis 14y ago

I don't see the financial incentive to develop for Windows RT and the Surface. The iPad is too dominant. Android tablets are munching on the periphery. I just don't see the market acceptance of the Surface. It is not "better" than the iPad. It is a different vision and direction. But why would millions of users follow that vision when iOS and Android offer a compelling enough platform already?

kooshball 14y ago
Any app you write for Windows RT will also run on Windows 8, which will have millions of users.
- captaincrowbar 14y ago
  Yeah, but why bother targeting RT when you can just continue to target plain old Windows? You still run on Windows 8 either way, but you gain Windows 7, Vista, and XP users in exchange for losing the RT tablet users. Unless RT tablets sell beyond anyone's wildest dreams, that's still going to be a net win for a good many years to come.
babesh 14y ago
In house corporate development is going to one big driver. Microsoft leveraged Windows dominance into profitability serving enterprise: Office, Windows, Exchange, in-house .net development, etc... They want enterprise to migrate to Windows 8 and develop Metro apps instead of adopting iPads. Consumer adoption is just to prop up enterprise adoption. I would bet that Microsoft makes 2/3 or more of its money from enterprise. Microsoft is money/domination driven rather than focused on delivering value and improving things.

benferris 14y ago

A year or two ago I would have sided with the dominance that the iPad exerts in the market and felt that Microsoft was doomed without a tablet available until Fall 2012, but honestly -- I'm about to switch from my iPhone to Android and purchase a Galaxy Note II as soon as I can get my hands on it and frankly I've got a Mac and several Windows PCs and I still prefer the clusterfuck that is Windows 8 over OS X. Interestingly I think Microsoft still has a chance.

randomfool 14y ago

After being at Microsoft for 5+ years, I consider it much more cocky than paranoid. Cocky because there is a pervasive mindset that if Microsoft builds it that customers will automatically flock. Windows Phone was a wake up call, but most of the company still believes this. Also, their continued focus on Windows and Office continues to suck the life out of many smaller products. There is no escaping the gravitational pull of Windows or Office.

jbigelow76 14y ago
You hit the nail on the head about Windows and Office. I think Microsoft could bank (and has to an extent) on customers flocking to its services if they could work on delivering specifics instead of, what seems like for the last decade, just reactions. There are a lot of purchasing managers and CIOs that know that if MS puts out a product in the enterprise space it's at least a safe bet. But they lose that as the enterprise blurs into the realm of the personal and MS makes larger bets into the personal space. Microsoft's problem is that while Windows and Office give MS the freedom to explore new markets those same two things let them treat these new markets as nothing more than multi-billion dollar whims that ultimately leave customers gun shy. I'm probably one of the last ten or so people that still has a Zune subscription (because the price and software are really compelling) but I also know that if they shut the entire thing down tomorrow and told all their Zune customers to go pound sand it wouldn't make a single penny's worth of difference on the Earnings Per Share report at the next quarterly earnings conference call. But while you say that Windows Phone was a wake up call it doesn't seem like it from the outside. When Apple announces things they give dates and prices, Microsoft announces things like the Lumia line, which look great, but they lose when they fail to deliver specifics instead just relying on everybody knowing that anything the demo will be available in the next 6-18 months. MS may have finally turned a corner by not releasing a half baked tablet OS in an effort to fight for the number 2 spot in the tablet wars, they waited until their "perspective" on tablet usage was ready. But still, they failed to outline specific dates and prices until relatively recently. People will "flock" to commitments to specifics, not so much so to "oh, shit if we don't find a MS response to threat X it's going to be bad".
- 14y ago

nostromo 14y ago

I think Microsoft would be better off today if they had been broken up by the government. Windows, Server, Office, Gaming, and Online as individual companies would all have been powerful, fierce competitors in the aughts. A few of them would already be dead, but others could be incredibly strong. Instead they are a huge conglomeration that lacks vision and direction.

kooshball 14y ago
> Instead they are a huge conglomeration that lacks vision and direction. Have you read this? http://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar12/shareholder-letter/index.html http://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar12/shareholder-l... This is the vision. Device and services.
- mtgx 14y ago
  I think this point was that this needed to happen a long time ago, and not just now as a response to Apple and Google.

manojlds 14y ago

> dominates the experience of the entire (+/- 5%) personal computer market. How can there be entire + 5%? Sometimes people try to be too clever.

beloch 14y ago

There are a couple of interpretations that makes this article interesting 7 years after it was written. 1. Is MS now "risking it all" with Windows 8? Windows 8 is certainly ballsy, but no, MS is not risking it all. The worst case scenario for Win8 is another epic marketing fail like Vista and slow adoption, followed by immediate uptake of Win9. Unlike companies such as RIM that have been largely banished from their core markets by Apple, MS's core market hasn't gone anywhere and isn't going anywhere. MS has expanded their hardware division somewhat (e.g. the Xbox), but to nowhere near the same extent as Apple. MS has not been pushed to the brink such that they need to risk it all to survive. MS hasn't shrunk in fact. The company just looks small now that Apple has shot past them to become so big. Win8 is not a desperate bid for survival, but rather, a new foray into areas MS hasn't been successful in to date. 2. Is Apple now in MS's shoes from half a decade or so ago? iPod - 2001, iPhone - 2007, Ipad - 2010. While Apple hasn't exactly disrupted any industries lately, it's not as if they've had a long dry spell. Still, there are some worrying signs. The iPod was immensely profitable for Apple because it took so long for halfway decent competitors to arise. The iPhone was under siege by Android in a much shorter period of time and the iPad in a shorter time-frame still. The iPad mini actually arrived after it's competition, with inferior specs and a higher price to boot. The only thing it has going for it is branding. Was this a fluke or is Apple losing ground? What is beyond question is that Apple is now a giant with everything to lose rather than the nearly bankrupt company of the late 90's that had just two choices: innovate or die. Apple is sitting on such a giant pile of cash that, instead of trying to innovate, they could easily decide to just keep making their stuff smaller (or bigger) and sue the pants off of anyone who makes anything similar. They could do this, but it's very premature to say that they have. Apple is leaking more product info these days, but it's not like a retina 13" macbook pro was such a surprise that it had to be kept secret. Apple may still have disruptive stuff under wraps somewhere in the dark recesses of Cupertino.

unfamiliar 14y ago
>The only thing it has going for it is branding. And the entire iOS ecosystem. It is essentially just a small iPad 2. The iPad 2 now seems to have nothing going for it, except for people with eyesight problems.

Gring 14y ago

This needs [2005] in the title. Prescient timing in the article: "If it's not Google that finally subverts the power structure of the industry, then it'll be someone else...eventually." Just at that time of publication (Nov 2005), Apple worked intensively on the first iOS device (iPhone, first shown 14 months later). John was right - but even he didn't dare to dream that his favorite company (Apple) is the one that eventually subverted the power structure.

fauigerzigerk 14y ago

"Abandon Windows and Office? Sure, it sounds like madness." And it is. It's not an Apple bubble that John Siracusa is living in (if that is still his opinion). It's a consumer/fashion/leasure products bubble. Microsoft is an enterprise software company, and the enterprise is all about managing slow transitions and dealing with a heterogenous hodgepodge of technologies permanently. A company like Microsoft that can build on a broad base of ubiquitous products that their custumers just cannot throw out over night has a very good chance of surviving by evolution not revolution. What could be Microsoft's undoing is if they start to look too much like a desperate also ran in the consumer space instead of telling its enterprise customers how they can transition to the cloud, use virtualization, do big data analysis, manage compliance with regulations, allow secure access through mobile devices, etc. I think what makes Microsoft try so desperately to be a consumer play is that they remember the past when they undermined IBM's power through a partly consumer driven grassroots strategy. They don't want that to happen to themselves and that's what their paranoia makes them focus on. But there's an important difference. Apple doesn't want to be in the enterprise space. They are completely uncompromising about that and for good reason. Apple's strength is to control the entire experience and that's just not possible in the enterprise. Microsoft should certainly help businesses to manage Apple gear, but most of all they should take on Oracle and SAP much more aggressively. Both are vulnerable to a competitor that understands the enterprise, makes software that people don't hate and doesn't overcharge as egregiously as these two do.

realo 14y ago
Hum... To paraphrase your comment: "RIM (of BlackBerry fame) is an enterprise smartphone company, and the enterprise is all about managing slow transitions ... blah blah..." RIM is dying. Fast.
- fauigerzigerk 14y ago
  There's a reason why enterprises often transition slowly: Dependencies. Lots of dependencies between platform components, third party applications, in-house code and data, etc. You picked a single function device that isn't intertwined with much else. Not a good counter example. Just a special case.

allenbrunson 14y ago

Can anyone think what Microsoft is doing now with the Surface is "risking it all?" Because to me, it looks like yet another round of Microsoft's answer to absolutely every new development: Hey, I know, we'll put Windows on it. Here's what "risking it all" would look like: Finally declare Windows is EOL. Put it in maintenance mode, no further updates. First step after that would be to work on an entirely new OS specifically for tablets and phones, without a hint of the old Windows UI anywhere. Then think about what they're going to do next for corporate clients, home PCs, and so on. Yes, it would be massively painful in the short term. But Apple got through a similar transition just fine, when they ditched Mac OS 9. And if Microsoft does not do this, it's just a matter of time until some other company does it for them.

wrath 14y ago
So easy to say when you're not responsible for billions dollars of licensing fees for Windows, Office and all the supporting products. I think the new metro UI is risking quite a lot and just this change has everyone up in arms. They have more customers then most of us can every wish for and investors to answer to, so let's not start to assume that change is that easy.

zimbatm 14y ago

It strike me at odds that IBM "lost". Sure it's not controlling the desktop market but in terms of revenue they're very well of. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+microsoft+revenue+vs+ibm+revenue http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+micros...

zimbatm 14y ago

It strikes me at odds when he says that IBM "lost". Sure they're not controlling the desktop market but in terms of revenue they're very well of. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+microsoft+revenue+vs+ibm+revenue http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+vs+micros...

nmcfarl 14y ago
Per employee, the spread opens way up, and they aren't looking quite as good. http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+per+employee+vs+microsoft+revenue+per+employee+vs+ibm+revenue+per+employee+&x=0&y=0 http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=apple+revenue+per+employe...

b1daly 14y ago

The big problem for the successful incumbent in these innovators dilemma scenarios is that most innovations fail. Most of the upstart challengers will fail. To risk for dominant position for the sake of a long shit chance a second life as upstart innovator is not rational. What is rational is to defend your dominant position to the end as the odds that your company can dominate in New territory is tiny.