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Which suppliers? Do they supply anything that ASML realistically can't get anywhere? There is no good alternative for ASML if EU tries to shut down US access.

gjsman-1000 8mo ago
A significant part of their machines are US made, though they don’t break it down (an earlier comment had an erroneous number). However, some huge parts are US made. For example, the EUV light source, the most important part of the system, that’s San Diego. This is also how the US has legal authority to control where ASML can export their machines, and has used it previously. https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-statement-on-updated-us-export-restrictions https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-statem...
- piva00 8mo ago
  The US has authority due to EUV LLC patents, not necessarily because of parts, parts can be sourced elsewhere if needed (both Europe and to some extent China can produce most or all of advanced machinery required).
  - gjsman-1000 8mo ago
    This is an assertion... but it's only a hope, a statement of faith, an assumption, not an objective analysis whether the parts can be made in any reasonable time frame. The most complex part of an EUV photolithography machine is the EUV light source, manufactured in the US; good luck reproducing that overnight. China's been trying for years. Similarly, it also excludes any scenario where the US government, if there is some sort of blockade action, decides to take a visit to San Diego and see how the sausage is made. Should that occur, the US government could potentially be back in business before ASML.
    - piva00 8mo ago
      It's produced in the USA by... ASML San Diego, the knowledge is inside the main ASML Holdings, it doesn't need to only exist in San Diego if the need arises. It's been good politics (and of course very likely good business) to keep it in the USA, if pressure and high risk comes there will be a lot of incentive to not need the USA parts and have it manufactured somewhere else.
- nickorlow 8mo ago
  I believe the EUV Light Source you're referring to is made by ASML in San Diego. So ASML has the IP/knowledge to stand this production up elsewhere.

gjsman-1000 8mo ago

A significant part of their machines are US made, though they don’t break it down (an earlier comment had an erroneous number). However, some huge parts are US made. For example, the EUV light source, the most important part of the system, that’s San Diego. This is also how the US has legal authority to control where ASML can export their machines, and has used it previously. https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-statement-on-updated-us-export-restrictions https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-statem...

piva00 8mo ago
The US has authority due to EUV LLC patents, not necessarily because of parts, parts can be sourced elsewhere if needed (both Europe and to some extent China can produce most or all of advanced machinery required).
- gjsman-1000 8mo ago
  This is an assertion... but it's only a hope, a statement of faith, an assumption, not an objective analysis whether the parts can be made in any reasonable time frame. The most complex part of an EUV photolithography machine is the EUV light source, manufactured in the US; good luck reproducing that overnight. China's been trying for years. Similarly, it also excludes any scenario where the US government, if there is some sort of blockade action, decides to take a visit to San Diego and see how the sausage is made. Should that occur, the US government could potentially be back in business before ASML.
  - piva00 8mo ago
    It's produced in the USA by... ASML San Diego, the knowledge is inside the main ASML Holdings, it doesn't need to only exist in San Diego if the need arises. It's been good politics (and of course very likely good business) to keep it in the USA, if pressure and high risk comes there will be a lot of incentive to not need the USA parts and have it manufactured somewhere else.
nickorlow 8mo ago
I believe the EUV Light Source you're referring to is made by ASML in San Diego. So ASML has the IP/knowledge to stand this production up elsewhere.