4 ms·

Bolstering your point, check out the comments in this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/rust/comments/1qy9dcs/who_has_completely_sworn_off_including_llm/ https:/

Bolstering your point, check out the comments in this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/rust/comments/1qy9dcs/who_has_completely_sworn_off_including_llm/ https://www.reddit.com/r/rust/comments/1qy9dcs/who_has_compl... There’s a lot of unwillingness to even attempt to try the tools.

cruffle_duffle 8mo ago
Those people are absolutely going to get left in the dust. In the hands of a skilled dev, these things are massive force multipliers.
- skydhash 8mo ago
  It doesn’t matter how fast you run if it’s not the correct direction.
  - baq 8mo ago
    Good LLM wielders run in widening circles and get to the goal faster than good old school programmers running in a straight line
    - skydhash 8mo ago
      I still haven’t seen those mythical LLM wielders in the wild. While I’m using tools like curl, jq, cmus, calibre, openbsd,… that has been most certainly created by those old school programmers.
    - uludag 8mo ago
      I try to avoid LLMs as much as I can in my role as SWE. I'm not ideologically opposed to switching, I just don't have any pressing need. There are people I work with who are deep in the AI ecosystem and it's obvious what tools they're using It would not be uncharitable in any way to characterize their work as pure slop that doesn't work, buggy, untested adequately, etc. The moment I start to feel behind I'll gladly start adopting agentic AI tools, but as things stand now, I'm not seeing any pressing need. Comments like these make me feel like I'm being gaslit.
      - kombookcha 8mo ago
        We are all constantly being gaslit. People have insane amounts of money and prestige riding on this thing paying off in such a comically huge way that it can absolutely not deliver on it in the foreseeable future. Creating a constant pressing sentiment that actually You Are Being Left Behind Get On Now Now Now is the only way they can keep inflating the balloon. If this stuff was self-evidently as useful as it's being made out to be, there would be no point in constantly trying to pressure, coax and cajole people into it. You don't need to spook people into using things that are useful, they'll do it when it makes sense. The actual use-case of LLMs is dwarfed by the massive investment bubble it has become, and it's all riding on future gains that are so hugely inflated they will leave a crater that makes the dotcom bubble look like a pothole.
    - match_condition 8mo ago
      Ah, right, so it's a "skill issue" when GPT5.3 has no idea what is going on in a private use case.
      - jfreds 8mo ago
        Literally yes
    - korallus 8mo ago
      Then where is all this new and amazing software? If LLM can 10x or 100x someones output we should've seen an explosion of great software by now. One dude with an LLM should be able to write a browser fully capable of browsing the modern web or an OS from scratch in a year, right?
      - kjksf 8mo ago
        That's a silly bar to ask for. Chrome took at least a thousand man years i.e. 100 people working for 10 years. I'm lowballing here: it's likely way, way more. If ai gives 10x speedup, to reproduce Chrome as it is today would require 1 person working for 100 years, 10 people working for 10 years or 100 people working for 1 year. Clearly, unrealistic bar to meet. If you want a concrete example: https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c Creator of Redis started this project 3 weeks ago and use Claude Code to vibe code this. It works, it's fast and the code quality is as high as I've ever seen a C code base. Easily 1% percentile of quality. Look at this one-shotted working implementation of jpeg decoder: https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c/commit/a14b0ff5c3b74c7660285444fc3e4477adcc0de1 https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c/commit/a14b0ff5c3b74c7660... Now, it takes a skilled person to guide Claude Code to generate this but I have zero doubts that this was done at least 5x-10x faster than Antirez writing the same code by hand.
- matsemann 8mo ago
  That's one of the sentiments I don't quite grasp, though. Why can't they just learn the tools when they're stable? So far it's been sooo many changes in workflows, basically relearn the tools every three months. It's maybe a bit more stabilized the last year, but still one could spend an enormous amount of time twiddling with various models or tools, knowledge that someone else probably could learn quicker at a later time. "Being left in the dust" would also mean it's impossible for new people / graduates to ever catch up. I don't think it is. Even though I learned react a few years after it was in vogue (my company bet on the wrong horse), I quickly got up to speed and am just as productive now as someone that started a bit earlier.
  - duggan 8mo ago
    Not the person you asked, but my interpretation of “left in the dust” here (not a phrasing I particularly agree with) would be the same way iOS development took off in the 2010s. There was a land rush to create apps. Basic stuff like the flash light, todo lists, etc, were created and found a huge audience. Development studios were established, people became very successful out of it. I think the same thing will happen here. There is a first mover advantage. The future is not yet evenly distributed. You can still start as an iOS developer today, but the opportunity is different.
    - lapcat 8mo ago
      I’m not sure your analogy is applicable here. The introduction of the App Store did not increase developer productivity per se. If anything, it decreased developer productivity, because unless you were already already a Mac developer, you had to learn a programming language you've never used, Objective-C, (now it's largely Swift, but that's still mainly used only on Apple platforms) and a brand new Apple-specific API, so a lot of your previous programming expertise became obsolete on a new platform. What the App Store did that was valuable to developers was open up a new market and bring a bunch of new potential customers, iPhone users, indeed relatively wealthy customers willing to spend money on software. What new market is brought by LLMs? They can produce as much source code as you like, but how exactly do you monetize that massive amount of source code? If anything, the value of source code and software products will drop as more is able to be produced rapidly. The only new market I see is actually the developer tool market for LLM fans, essentially a circular market of LLM developers marketing to other LLM developers. As far as the developer job market is concerned, it's painfully clear that companies are in a mass layoff mood. Whether that's due to LLMs, or whether LLMs are just the cover story, the result is the same. Developer compensation is not on the rise, unless you happen to be recruited by one of the LLM vendors themselves. My impression is that from the developer perspective, LLMs are a scheme to transfer massive amounts of wealth from developers to the LLM vendors. And you can bet the prices for access to LLMs will go up, up, up over time as developers become hooked and demand increases. To me, the whole "OpenClaw" hype looks like a crowd of gamblers at a casino, putting coins in slot machines. One thing is for certain: the house always wins.
- palata 8mo ago
  > In the hands of a skilled dev, these things are massive force multipliers. What do you get from it? Say you produce more, do you get a higher salary? What I have seen so far is the opposite: if you don't produce more, you risk getting fired. I am not denying that LLMs make me more productive. Just saying that they don't make me more wealthy. On the other hand, they use a ton of energy at a time where we as a society should probably know better. The way I see it, we are killing the Earth because we produce too much. LLMs help us produce more, why should we be happy?
  - Schlagbohrer 8mo ago
    (Imagine me posting the graph of worker productivity in the US climbing quickly over time while pay remains flat or falls)
- coldtea 8mo ago
  I only wish I was there when that cocky "skilled dev" is laid off.
- mono442 8mo ago
  Using these tools comes down to basically just writing what you want in a natural language. I don't think it will be a problem to catch up if they need to.
  - jfreds 8mo ago
    Context management, plan mode versus agent mode, skills vs system prompt, all make a huge difference and all take some time to build intuition around. Not all that hard to learn, but waiting for things to settle down assumes things are going to settle down. Are they? When?
    - jryan49 8mo ago
      Someone will package up all that intuition and skills and I imagine people won't have to do any of these things in future.
    - habinero 8mo ago
      You wait for everyone to go broke chasing whatever, and then take their work for your own. It's not that hard to copy and paste.
    - asa400 8mo ago
      That these facets of use exist at all are indicative of immature product design. These are leaked implementation details that the labs are forcing us to know because these are weak, early products and they’re still exploring the design space. The median user doesn’t want to and shouldn’t have to care about details like this. Future products in this space won’t have them and future users won’t be left in the dust by not learning them today. Python programmers aren’t left behind by not knowing malloc and free.
    - deleted 8mo ago
      [deleted]

cruffle_duffle 8mo ago

Those people are absolutely going to get left in the dust. In the hands of a skilled dev, these things are massive force multipliers.

skydhash 8mo ago
It doesn’t matter how fast you run if it’s not the correct direction.
- baq 8mo ago
  Good LLM wielders run in widening circles and get to the goal faster than good old school programmers running in a straight line
  - skydhash 8mo ago
    I still haven’t seen those mythical LLM wielders in the wild. While I’m using tools like curl, jq, cmus, calibre, openbsd,… that has been most certainly created by those old school programmers.
  - uludag 8mo ago
    I try to avoid LLMs as much as I can in my role as SWE. I'm not ideologically opposed to switching, I just don't have any pressing need. There are people I work with who are deep in the AI ecosystem and it's obvious what tools they're using It would not be uncharitable in any way to characterize their work as pure slop that doesn't work, buggy, untested adequately, etc. The moment I start to feel behind I'll gladly start adopting agentic AI tools, but as things stand now, I'm not seeing any pressing need. Comments like these make me feel like I'm being gaslit.
    - kombookcha 8mo ago
      We are all constantly being gaslit. People have insane amounts of money and prestige riding on this thing paying off in such a comically huge way that it can absolutely not deliver on it in the foreseeable future. Creating a constant pressing sentiment that actually You Are Being Left Behind Get On Now Now Now is the only way they can keep inflating the balloon. If this stuff was self-evidently as useful as it's being made out to be, there would be no point in constantly trying to pressure, coax and cajole people into it. You don't need to spook people into using things that are useful, they'll do it when it makes sense. The actual use-case of LLMs is dwarfed by the massive investment bubble it has become, and it's all riding on future gains that are so hugely inflated they will leave a crater that makes the dotcom bubble look like a pothole.
  - match_condition 8mo ago
    Ah, right, so it's a "skill issue" when GPT5.3 has no idea what is going on in a private use case.
    - jfreds 8mo ago
      Literally yes
  - korallus 8mo ago
    Then where is all this new and amazing software? If LLM can 10x or 100x someones output we should've seen an explosion of great software by now. One dude with an LLM should be able to write a browser fully capable of browsing the modern web or an OS from scratch in a year, right?
    - kjksf 8mo ago
      That's a silly bar to ask for. Chrome took at least a thousand man years i.e. 100 people working for 10 years. I'm lowballing here: it's likely way, way more. If ai gives 10x speedup, to reproduce Chrome as it is today would require 1 person working for 100 years, 10 people working for 10 years or 100 people working for 1 year. Clearly, unrealistic bar to meet. If you want a concrete example: https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c Creator of Redis started this project 3 weeks ago and use Claude Code to vibe code this. It works, it's fast and the code quality is as high as I've ever seen a C code base. Easily 1% percentile of quality. Look at this one-shotted working implementation of jpeg decoder: https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c/commit/a14b0ff5c3b74c7660285444fc3e4477adcc0de1 https://github.com/antirez/flux2.c/commit/a14b0ff5c3b74c7660... Now, it takes a skilled person to guide Claude Code to generate this but I have zero doubts that this was done at least 5x-10x faster than Antirez writing the same code by hand.
matsemann 8mo ago
That's one of the sentiments I don't quite grasp, though. Why can't they just learn the tools when they're stable? So far it's been sooo many changes in workflows, basically relearn the tools every three months. It's maybe a bit more stabilized the last year, but still one could spend an enormous amount of time twiddling with various models or tools, knowledge that someone else probably could learn quicker at a later time. "Being left in the dust" would also mean it's impossible for new people / graduates to ever catch up. I don't think it is. Even though I learned react a few years after it was in vogue (my company bet on the wrong horse), I quickly got up to speed and am just as productive now as someone that started a bit earlier.
- duggan 8mo ago
  Not the person you asked, but my interpretation of “left in the dust” here (not a phrasing I particularly agree with) would be the same way iOS development took off in the 2010s. There was a land rush to create apps. Basic stuff like the flash light, todo lists, etc, were created and found a huge audience. Development studios were established, people became very successful out of it. I think the same thing will happen here. There is a first mover advantage. The future is not yet evenly distributed. You can still start as an iOS developer today, but the opportunity is different.
  - lapcat 8mo ago
    I’m not sure your analogy is applicable here. The introduction of the App Store did not increase developer productivity per se. If anything, it decreased developer productivity, because unless you were already already a Mac developer, you had to learn a programming language you've never used, Objective-C, (now it's largely Swift, but that's still mainly used only on Apple platforms) and a brand new Apple-specific API, so a lot of your previous programming expertise became obsolete on a new platform. What the App Store did that was valuable to developers was open up a new market and bring a bunch of new potential customers, iPhone users, indeed relatively wealthy customers willing to spend money on software. What new market is brought by LLMs? They can produce as much source code as you like, but how exactly do you monetize that massive amount of source code? If anything, the value of source code and software products will drop as more is able to be produced rapidly. The only new market I see is actually the developer tool market for LLM fans, essentially a circular market of LLM developers marketing to other LLM developers. As far as the developer job market is concerned, it's painfully clear that companies are in a mass layoff mood. Whether that's due to LLMs, or whether LLMs are just the cover story, the result is the same. Developer compensation is not on the rise, unless you happen to be recruited by one of the LLM vendors themselves. My impression is that from the developer perspective, LLMs are a scheme to transfer massive amounts of wealth from developers to the LLM vendors. And you can bet the prices for access to LLMs will go up, up, up over time as developers become hooked and demand increases. To me, the whole "OpenClaw" hype looks like a crowd of gamblers at a casino, putting coins in slot machines. One thing is for certain: the house always wins.
palata 8mo ago
> In the hands of a skilled dev, these things are massive force multipliers. What do you get from it? Say you produce more, do you get a higher salary? What I have seen so far is the opposite: if you don't produce more, you risk getting fired. I am not denying that LLMs make me more productive. Just saying that they don't make me more wealthy. On the other hand, they use a ton of energy at a time where we as a society should probably know better. The way I see it, we are killing the Earth because we produce too much. LLMs help us produce more, why should we be happy?
- Schlagbohrer 8mo ago
  (Imagine me posting the graph of worker productivity in the US climbing quickly over time while pay remains flat or falls)
coldtea 8mo ago
I only wish I was there when that cocky "skilled dev" is laid off.
mono442 8mo ago
Using these tools comes down to basically just writing what you want in a natural language. I don't think it will be a problem to catch up if they need to.
- jfreds 8mo ago
  Context management, plan mode versus agent mode, skills vs system prompt, all make a huge difference and all take some time to build intuition around. Not all that hard to learn, but waiting for things to settle down assumes things are going to settle down. Are they? When?
  - jryan49 8mo ago
    Someone will package up all that intuition and skills and I imagine people won't have to do any of these things in future.
  - habinero 8mo ago
    You wait for everyone to go broke chasing whatever, and then take their work for your own. It's not that hard to copy and paste.
  - asa400 8mo ago
    That these facets of use exist at all are indicative of immature product design. These are leaked implementation details that the labs are forcing us to know because these are weak, early products and they’re still exploring the design space. The median user doesn’t want to and shouldn’t have to care about details like this. Future products in this space won’t have them and future users won’t be left in the dust by not learning them today. Python programmers aren’t left behind by not knowing malloc and free.
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]