7 ms·
Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm ca
by kyboren 8mo ago
Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication.
Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semiconductor_manufacturing_to_europe_esmc_is_making_it_happen/ https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...
- avhception 8mo agoGermany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailing. It's a shame.
- danielbln 8mo agoThe only forward facing government that actually had a drive to change anything useful for the future broke apart with internal squabbles, with a big part of it by the market liberals torpedoing things left and right. And now we're back to a government of stand still, like we did the almost two decades before. We get what we deserve.
- Flatterer3544 8mo agoThis standstill mostly started happening when the capitalism took hold too deep and wide, look at Sweden and its golden age that lasted until all the restrictions on capitalism were silently removed. While capitalism is a good model, it needs to be kept balanced, restricted.. Shareholder primacy is ruining everything, too much influence in politics from too many external sources.
- throwaway_20357 8mo agoNot sure what you're talking about. The last "forward facing" government was about 50y ago, the last one at least driving meaningful reforms almost 25y ago. To me it seems the more Europe got integrated, the more Germany lost the plot.
- jorvi 8mo agoHigh-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. The problem is that unlike Airbus, which (highly inefficiently) can be made in multiple countries, you can't really spread out parts of a fab that way. The most you can do is fab machines + chips + chip packaging. Netherlands already has fab machines and in packaging there isn't a high margin. That leaves chips, and you can be sure that whoever gets the fabs, the other EU countries will throw a shit fit and demand counter investments to compensate. And on top of that there is also regional animosity. So even if it makes logical sense to pop the fab down in the middle of the blue banana, it won't make political sense because France and all of South and East EU will be angry about "the rich getting richer".
- joe_mamba 8mo ago>High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. And how are we gonna do that exactly? EU runs on national interests of those footing the bill, mainly France and Germany as the largest net contributors. When you're relying on national subsidies to build and run a factory and adjacent infrastructure in a country, you're tied to national interests and demands of those countries footing the bill for all that infrastructure. So the likes of France and Germany aren't gonna give billions in subsidies from their taxpayers' money to semiconductor companies so that they can incorporate in Netherlands to dodge taxes and then create jobs in low-cost Poland and Romania instead of at home, even though that's already been happening to an extent in other industries over the last 20+ years. It's the same with arms purchases now. France blocked Ukraine from using its money to buy British made weapons that are already available, since it expects that money to go back into the French economy, not to the economy of a competitor, even if the much needed weapons will arrive much later. Yeah I know, UK isn't EU anymore, but the point still stands, as EU nations are still economically competitors to each other and they're not gonna spend their tax money to fund competing economies even in the EU block.
- bjourne 8mo agoSpecialization takes away a lot of the competitive pressure.
- 15155 8mo ago[flagged]
- virgildotcodes 8mo agoIf every time you’re shown an inkblot you see right wing talking points materialize in front of your eyes, it may be time to take a break from social media.
- simianparrot 8mo agoIf you think net zero’s failures are a right wing talking point it might be you failing the Rorschach test
- sehansen 8mo agoBringing up net zero in a thread about semiconductor manufacturing is a complete non sequitur. Fabs run on electricity which is quite easy produce without emitting any CO2.
- simianparrot 8mo agoOnly if you ignore supply chains, manufacturing, procurement of raw materials, grid balancing, and so much more.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- virgildotcodes 8mo agoYou're, of course, misrepresenting what I was replying to. Here it is again: > 'green everything, at all costs' and importing millions of unskilled people who don't share your values Are you in good faith attempting to argue that those sentiments are not predominantly right wing talking points?
- simianparrot 8mo ago
- roenxi 8mo agoThat seems a bit too simple. I saw one particular graph [0] once that really stuck with me illustrating just how decisively Europe was ejected from the semiconductor market. It takes more than just inaction to achieve results like that. In many ways it could be called an impressive feat that only the Europeans could achieve. 44% of production to 9% - losing a steady 1% of the market every year, largest to smallest player. No other region is even in a position to do that badly even if they tried. [0] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/SemiconductorswithBar.jpg https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/...
- simgt 8mo agoWow, I had no idea. Thanks for sharing!
- IsTom 8mo agoI wonder what that would look like on an absolute scale instead of relative %. Might be that just the market grew really big, really fast.
- ifwinterco 8mo agoI think it can just take inaction, because it's a market that moves so fast and requires constant enormous investment to keep up. If you just do nothing within half a decade or so you'll be far behind the cutting edge and at that point the decline gains its own momentum
- roenxi 8mo agoIt is possible. But that seems out of character for the Europeans, they're pretty consistent about going the distance to make absolutely sure that the next new thing doesn't happen in Europe. It seems much more likely they had a suite of environmental, social and trade policies carefully calibrated to move semiconductor manufacturing somewhere else.
- ifwinterco 8mo agoPart of it is simply the Euro being too strong. Taiwan has a (deliberately) undervalued currency that makes exports a lot more competitive, the EU does not. It's a super simple strategy with profound effects but somehow still very underappreciated
- joe_mamba 8mo ago>when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony" That's not at all how it works. You're talking as if you're buying a plug-and-play Xerox copy machine that you can just unbox and start printing copies of your work and make money. Buying the latest EUV machines doesn't get you the latest nodes and economically viable yields. Intel, Samsung also have the latest ASML machines that TSMC has and yet they haven't caught up to TSMC because there's a lot more to semi manufacturing that just the machine itself. If Germany just buys an ASML machine it would be an expensive paperweight without the process know-how that engineers at TSMC have amassed over the decades in order to get the most economically competitive yields.
- i5heu 8mo agoIt is so absurd to think that an investment in even the most uncompetitive fab while one has currently none is uneconomical. Even if this fab is 3 times more expensive then other ones, the result of not having one will tank the entire economy and GDP of a nation if things go bad. We speak here about trillions of damage while a fab costs only a few billions. This is like a complete non brainer.
- joe_mamba 8mo ago>while one has currently none What are you talking about? There's a lot of fabs in Europe, just on much older nodes than Taiwan, US and Japan or even China have. >We speak here about trillions of damage Where did you get the trillions from? >a fab costs only a few billions Billions just to build, but then who's gonna foot the bill for running it, if the fab is not economically competitive to those from Taiwan and Japan, at EU domestic wages, EU environmental regulations and lacking knowhow supply chains that needs to be built up in the EU? The taxpayers again? The German government (meaning the taxpayers) are still subsidizing energy costs to keep manufacturing from collapsing or leaving the country altogether because it's not internationally competitive anymore. So how much more of the private sector should the taxpayers subsidize before we take a look at ourselves in the mirror that everything is FUBAR and that endless taxpayer funded subsidies(aka corporate welfare) are just disguising the endemic rot while not actually fixing the problem?
- assaddayinh 8mo agoCultural failure on a massive scale
- chvid 8mo agoASML and its mostly European suppliers is still the key chokepoint that prevents highend semiconductor fabrication from moving to China.
- joe_mamba 8mo agoExcept China has fabs on smaller nodes than Europe, so why can't Europe?
- ekianjo 8mo agoBecause they don't invest. It's always the same problem. Lack of capital directed in that field.
- joe_mamba 8mo agoWell there you go. The EU talks the big talk on "domestic sovereignty" but never puts their money where their mouth is, or when they do, it's breadcrumbs, just enough to keep it on life support, let alone to be in the top contenders.
- whp_wessel 8mo agoIf Trump was European he would have long ago said “i only allow export of ASML machines if openai/nvidia/tsmc build 5gw urgently here in Europe with advanced nodes”. Fair if you ask me tbh
- joe_mamba 8mo ago>Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity EU leaders and VCs gave up on the electronics industry 20+ years ago and just kept offshoring it to the cheapest suppliers to lower costs and increase shareholder value. You can validate this by looking at which sectors pay the highest EU wages and you'll see that hardware and electronics are not in the top. And working in the electronics industry requires highly skilled knowhow and academic specialization, and you're not gonna attract people there if you don't pay them top wages if they can get more money and an easier job somewhere else like writing CRUD SW or pushing pencils in a bank.
- gjadi 8mo agoNot everyone is motivated by the highest wage they can get. Good enough can be good enough and then aim for fun/interesting/challenging/fulfilling work instead of a fatter check.
- joe_mamba 8mo ago>Not everyone is motivated by the highest wage they can get. THis idealism always goes away once you have to buy a home, and realize you're working more hours and getting less money than your mates in other industries that are easier to get into, so you start to switch really quick. People aren't selfless when it comes to being exploited by private sector entities, they'll always go towards the ones with the best wage/hour ratios. People aren';t stupid. Why would they voluntarily choose to work harder and be less well off? It's not like this is working for the public good like medicine, firefighters, EMT, education, etc.
- gjadi 8mo agoThere is always more money elsewhere. But once you have a home, enough to raise your family and save for later, when is enough enough? And is the work fun? Fulfilling? Money is a mean to an end. Sure you can aim to earn enough to get FIRE asap. In my case, I aim for FIRE in the next 40y while maxing my fun in the meantime :)
- mrtksn 8mo agoWhat you are suggesting is vertical integration. If Europe goes crazy, can do that. From start to finish this chip thingy can become "magic crystals from Europe" as they already have control over the tooling. How many billions it will take to build the fabs with these tools and hire the talent from all over the planet and put all that in special economical zones? I don't know but I bet its less than those who don't have and end up buying the tools. Europe is already a great place to build your life and despite the narrative about "EU killing businesses with over regulations", Europe is an exporter, that is EU makes physical things in large quantities(that's why USA is able to blackmail EU with tariffs). EU produces and exports so much, more than it consumes. Its closer to China than USA in this regard, you can check out the recent stats here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/6-15012026-bp https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w... The infrastructure is in place and there are both many nuclear reactors that were decommissioned early or not yet commissioned but canceled/put on hold as well as regions with plenty of sunshine or hydro power opportunities and also has all the expertise to re-work those quickly. It's really a political decision to push for something like that or not. Geopolitics may eventually make it happen, who knows? At this time it makes more economical sense to make the tools and send them close to the larger supply chain of electronic products production.
- philipallstar 8mo ago> Europe is already a great place to build your life Agreed. Its countries' long-standing equivalents of America First policies mean that they spend far more on their own citizens, import far fewer people, and leave most of the charitable, defence, and research spending to the US taxpayer. Good for them.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- mrtksn 8mo agoI kind of agree that "America First" policies tend to be Europeanization type policies and as a result quite un-American and that's also why USA will end up like Europe if it keeps course. Europe is great in many ways but lacks the dynamism exactly because of its highly controlled immigration policies instead of free market ones. Bureaucrats actually are terrible at picking who should come. A major example are the Turkish immigrants to Germany, where they imported huge numbers of Turkish immigrants for their booming car industry in the 60s and instead of just treating them like normal people they did this "guest worker" thing and as a result those Turks failed to integrate and remained in the low socioeconomic status with exception for some high profile cases like the inventors of the mRNA vaccine or the Crysis founders. In other places like UK or USA, Turkish immigrants tend to have much higher socioeconomic status. If EU end up doing its chip and energy industry push, better be following the pre-Trump era immigration policies because that's how USA got is all the workforce that make USA leap ahead in many industries. Some French or Swedish immigration officer would not be picking people better than industrialists or startup founders. Immigration and its integration are not Europe's strong traits.
- insane_dreamer 8mo agoEU never had significant chip fabrication (instead having a lock on the tooling) whereas Japan and the US essentially pioneered high-end chip manufacturing before losing ground to Taiwan and Korea.