5 ms·

We don't just have a generation problem (although we have that too, to a lesser degree). We fundamentally have a storage, transmission and distribution problem.

We don't just have a generation problem (although we have that too, to a lesser degree). We fundamentally have a storage, transmission and distribution problem. The system for moving power around is at least as complex and expensive as the systems for generating it. Probably significantly more. If we don't solve those problems we can build as many solar plants as we want, they're worse than useless unless we can move that power around. We need massive investments in high voltage transmission and hydroelectric pumped storage before we can utilize significantly more storage. These are not technical problems, but political ones.

pfdietz 9mo ago
I think it's more likely that storage will beat transmission. This will also increase robustness rather than continuing to tie the electricity infrastructure into one massive machine that's vulnerable to attack and Carrington events.
- hedora 9mo ago
  This will be especially true if people keep driving cars. An EV with 300 mile range has something like 2-4x more batteries than a typical whole-house battery. It's easy to imagine houses will go into "away mode" when there's no car plugged in: The appliances would use as much power as possible to keep the solar from curtailing (imagine heat pump water heaters that go up to 210F then mix down to 120F on the output, freezers that cool way below typical temperatures, or HVAC systems with heat reservoirs). The houses would coast over night. When the car is plugged in, they'd provision 25% of vehicle range for things like cooking, lighting and heating. If the above is too expensive, then people would just add more house battery, which would cost less than their car. Either way, storage wins.
  - idiotsecant 9mo ago
    OK, but that's only focusing on residential loads, which is approximately 1/3 of power use. Is every industrial user expected to build an entire multimegawatt-class generation station? Not everyone wants to or is capable of being a power producer. Not everyone wants to design their entire life around when they can use power.
    - pfdietz 9mo ago
      We may see that become economically advantageous. If so, we're going to see more of a dispersal of industrial activities away from dense areas. I will once again point to Standard Thermal as something whose technology would enable this switch, especially if they can deliver PV-resistive seasonally stored 600 C heat at a cost similar to that of heat from combustion of Henry Hub natural gas.

pfdietz 9mo ago

I think it's more likely that storage will beat transmission. This will also increase robustness rather than continuing to tie the electricity infrastructure into one massive machine that's vulnerable to attack and Carrington events.

hedora 9mo ago
This will be especially true if people keep driving cars. An EV with 300 mile range has something like 2-4x more batteries than a typical whole-house battery. It's easy to imagine houses will go into "away mode" when there's no car plugged in: The appliances would use as much power as possible to keep the solar from curtailing (imagine heat pump water heaters that go up to 210F then mix down to 120F on the output, freezers that cool way below typical temperatures, or HVAC systems with heat reservoirs). The houses would coast over night. When the car is plugged in, they'd provision 25% of vehicle range for things like cooking, lighting and heating. If the above is too expensive, then people would just add more house battery, which would cost less than their car. Either way, storage wins.
- idiotsecant 9mo ago
  OK, but that's only focusing on residential loads, which is approximately 1/3 of power use. Is every industrial user expected to build an entire multimegawatt-class generation station? Not everyone wants to or is capable of being a power producer. Not everyone wants to design their entire life around when they can use power.
  - pfdietz 9mo ago
    We may see that become economically advantageous. If so, we're going to see more of a dispersal of industrial activities away from dense areas. I will once again point to Standard Thermal as something whose technology would enable this switch, especially if they can deliver PV-resistive seasonally stored 600 C heat at a cost similar to that of heat from combustion of Henry Hub natural gas.