4 ms·
Is it really a bubble? The AI boom is often compared to dot com bubble but was that a bubble? Sure if you bought immediately before the crash and sold after you
by bko 8mo ago
Is it really a bubble? The AI boom is often compared to dot com bubble but was that a bubble? Sure if you bought immediately before the crash and sold after you lost a lot of money. But if you were just consistently investing in web based companies from lates 1990s to 2010, how did you do? Probably pretty well. Web did change the world and create an immense amount of wealth in the world and markets. You're just focused on a short time frame.
Even the real estate bubble in 2008. If you bought a home in 2005 and sold in 2009, sure you lost a lot, but if you just invested in real estate from mid 2000s and kept it for 10 years, you prob did pretty well. Even the great depression had a sharp readjustment, but look at pretty much any 10‑year windows, including great depression, you'll see ~10% nominal and ~5–7% real annualized equity returns.
I think AI will be similar. It's a paradigm shift. Some of todays companies will go under and stocks will crash but over 10+ years, I think it will be a great investment and the industry will flourish, much like the tech or real estate bubble.
- ranguna 8mo agoThat last sentence is actually a good take imo.