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A long article, about rising prices driven by fossil fuel costs but also a lot of positivity as you read towards the end and a sudden sharp downturn that’s comi

A long article, about rising prices driven by fossil fuel costs but also a lot of positivity as you read towards the end and a sudden sharp downturn that’s coming to Australias power prices. Australia’s wholesale power prices halved in q4 2025 due to massive solar and battery investment that on a per capita basis dwarfs china. Australia is now over 50% renewables. It’s set to accelerate too. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-08/big-swings-in-australias-electricity-market/106305696 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-08/big-swings-in-austral... So at least one continent in this picture is making great progress to achieving this.

nandomrumber 8mo ago
> wholesale power prices halved Who cares? No one pays the wholesale price. What price does the retail customer pay?
- Retric 8mo ago
  Retail prices obscure the underlying economics via taxes and subsidies. Here the wholesale prices are far more relevant economically.
  - nandomrumber 8mo ago
    Indeed. Still, what good is free energy to anyone if the retail price has only one trajectory. If politics is a significant cost factor, no amount of technology is going to fix that. Or, as Jimmy Carr put it: But you go, yeah, you can have net zero, as long as you don't give a fuck about poor people, right? If you don't give a fuck about poor people, of course we can do net zero. - https://youtu.be/H3FwqPkPSHE https://youtu.be/H3FwqPkPSHE
    - adrianN 8mo ago
      Poor people are hit hardest by the effects of climate change.
      - TheSpiceIsLife 8mo ago
        Empathy isn’t universal. I care less about poor people in poor countries in far away lands, and far away times, than I do my fellow citizens in my relatively wealthy country. And my fellow citizens, especially the low income folk, are affected everyday by high energy costs. High energy costs result in higher costs of everything. Whereas the effects of climate change, to the extent that they’re distinguishable from extreme weather events at all, are largely tolerated by even the poorest here in Australia. High energy costs makes extreme weather events less tolerable.
        adrianN 8mo ago
        It is good then that renewable energy is cheap. There are a million things countries can do to help poor people. Burning fossil fuels is very far down the list.
        TheSpiceIsLife 8mo ago
        > that renewable energy is cheap Where is this the case? There is what? Approximately nowhere with high renewables penetration and cheap retail energy prices. Australia has so much coal and gas we could have electricity plans similar to data plans: all you can reasonably consume for $80 a month, and it would still make approximately zero difference to global anthropogenic carbon emissions. We’re plenty happy for everyone else to burn our LNG and coal. Our LNG is cheap the Japanese even resell it a profit.[1] Instead, we have high renewables penetration and electricity prices that have increased at a rate three times higher than general inflation. 1. https://ieefa.org/resources/how-japan-cashes-resales-australian-lng-expense-australian-gas-users https://ieefa.org/resources/how-japan-cashes-resales-austral...
        adrianN 8mo ago
        You’re replying in a thread about energy prices dropping because of renewable energy.
        8mo ago
    - Retric 8mo ago
      And he’s just wrong. > what good is free energy to anyone if the retail price has only one trajectory. The underlying economics means someone is always paying for that, you can pay for more expensive fossil fuels in your taxes or on your electric bill but it’s going to happen either way. Granted we have a legacy of fossil fuel, nuclear, and yes early renewable projects but if you have zero subsidies of any kind going forward we get to a 100% emissions free grid because today that’s the cheapest option, Burning fossil fuels has had an over a century of technical development and global scale it isn’t getting dramatically better to catch up it just loses and renewables just keep getting more appealing over time.
    - hedora 8mo ago
      What was his point? If he'd been more specific, his comment would be true: "If you don't give a fuck about [extracting revenue from poor serfs], of course we can do net zero." If we lived in a more just society, we'd mandate community net metering: This is the idea that (say) a city block can build a solar/wind farm anywhere within a few dozen miles of itself, and then have their bills proportionally reduced by the amount of power that farm produces. It enables interesting economic models, like "the community takes out a 30 year mortgage to build + maintain the farm in exchange for an immediate halving of their electricity bills", or having trade schools offer free/cheap electrician programs that include apprenticeships building such farms. (See also: Habitat for Humanity.)
- adrianN 8mo ago
  The more power you consume the closer to wholesale is your price. I’m sure Aluminium smelters or fertilizer plants care a lot about wholesale prices.
  - TheSpiceIsLife 8mo ago
    No residential retail customer in my country qualifies for any high-usage discount, as far as I’m aware. Only big industrial users do, and even the largest industrial users I’ve worked for, or adjacent to, in my state don’t come close to amount of electricity used by the aluminium smelter.
- irishcoffee 8mo ago
  Green isn't supposed to save people money. It's just a shift from bit oil to big green if you're interested in the money part.
riffraff 8mo ago
The EU had wind + solar overtake fossil fuels last year too. Fossil fuels are now less than 30% of electricity generation. Alas, there's a ton more burning which is not electricity, but progress is undeniable https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2026/#executive-summary https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricit...
- hedora 8mo ago
  The US did too, despite Trump trying to block it.

nandomrumber 8mo ago

> wholesale power prices halved Who cares? No one pays the wholesale price. What price does the retail customer pay?

Retric 8mo ago
Retail prices obscure the underlying economics via taxes and subsidies. Here the wholesale prices are far more relevant economically.
- nandomrumber 8mo ago
  Indeed. Still, what good is free energy to anyone if the retail price has only one trajectory. If politics is a significant cost factor, no amount of technology is going to fix that. Or, as Jimmy Carr put it: But you go, yeah, you can have net zero, as long as you don't give a fuck about poor people, right? If you don't give a fuck about poor people, of course we can do net zero. - https://youtu.be/H3FwqPkPSHE https://youtu.be/H3FwqPkPSHE
  - adrianN 8mo ago
    Poor people are hit hardest by the effects of climate change.
    - TheSpiceIsLife 8mo ago
      Empathy isn’t universal. I care less about poor people in poor countries in far away lands, and far away times, than I do my fellow citizens in my relatively wealthy country. And my fellow citizens, especially the low income folk, are affected everyday by high energy costs. High energy costs result in higher costs of everything. Whereas the effects of climate change, to the extent that they’re distinguishable from extreme weather events at all, are largely tolerated by even the poorest here in Australia. High energy costs makes extreme weather events less tolerable.
      - adrianN 8mo ago
        It is good then that renewable energy is cheap. There are a million things countries can do to help poor people. Burning fossil fuels is very far down the list.
        TheSpiceIsLife 8mo ago
        > that renewable energy is cheap Where is this the case? There is what? Approximately nowhere with high renewables penetration and cheap retail energy prices. Australia has so much coal and gas we could have electricity plans similar to data plans: all you can reasonably consume for $80 a month, and it would still make approximately zero difference to global anthropogenic carbon emissions. We’re plenty happy for everyone else to burn our LNG and coal. Our LNG is cheap the Japanese even resell it a profit.[1] Instead, we have high renewables penetration and electricity prices that have increased at a rate three times higher than general inflation. 1. https://ieefa.org/resources/how-japan-cashes-resales-australian-lng-expense-australian-gas-users https://ieefa.org/resources/how-japan-cashes-resales-austral...
        adrianN 8mo ago
        You’re replying in a thread about energy prices dropping because of renewable energy.
        8mo ago
  - Retric 8mo ago
    And he’s just wrong. > what good is free energy to anyone if the retail price has only one trajectory. The underlying economics means someone is always paying for that, you can pay for more expensive fossil fuels in your taxes or on your electric bill but it’s going to happen either way. Granted we have a legacy of fossil fuel, nuclear, and yes early renewable projects but if you have zero subsidies of any kind going forward we get to a 100% emissions free grid because today that’s the cheapest option, Burning fossil fuels has had an over a century of technical development and global scale it isn’t getting dramatically better to catch up it just loses and renewables just keep getting more appealing over time.
  - hedora 8mo ago
    What was his point? If he'd been more specific, his comment would be true: "If you don't give a fuck about [extracting revenue from poor serfs], of course we can do net zero." If we lived in a more just society, we'd mandate community net metering: This is the idea that (say) a city block can build a solar/wind farm anywhere within a few dozen miles of itself, and then have their bills proportionally reduced by the amount of power that farm produces. It enables interesting economic models, like "the community takes out a 30 year mortgage to build + maintain the farm in exchange for an immediate halving of their electricity bills", or having trade schools offer free/cheap electrician programs that include apprenticeships building such farms. (See also: Habitat for Humanity.)
adrianN 8mo ago
The more power you consume the closer to wholesale is your price. I’m sure Aluminium smelters or fertilizer plants care a lot about wholesale prices.
- TheSpiceIsLife 8mo ago
  No residential retail customer in my country qualifies for any high-usage discount, as far as I’m aware. Only big industrial users do, and even the largest industrial users I’ve worked for, or adjacent to, in my state don’t come close to amount of electricity used by the aluminium smelter.
irishcoffee 8mo ago
Green isn't supposed to save people money. It's just a shift from bit oil to big green if you're interested in the money part.

riffraff 8mo ago

The EU had wind + solar overtake fossil fuels last year too. Fossil fuels are now less than 30% of electricity generation. Alas, there's a ton more burning which is not electricity, but progress is undeniable https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2026/#executive-summary https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricit...

hedora 8mo ago
The US did too, despite Trump trying to block it.