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"Another study in 2024 showed that a collapse of the AMOC before the year 2100 was unlikely."

by d_silin 8mo ago

idiotsecant 8mo ago
If you read the article and that's the overall conclusion you came away with I'm not sure we read the same article. They're just pointing out that timing is uncertain, but the majority of diverse models show AMOC failure within a few generations and nearly all of them do if we extrapolate continued CO2 release growth.
- d_silin 8mo ago
  I hate endless catastrophism in the headlines. Article contents doesn't reflect the alarmist statement in the header.
  - coldtea 8mo ago
    "The house will burn down" "Don't be alarmist, it's just the curtains that are on fire. Besides, there's a good chance it might rain".
    - d_silin 8mo ago
      Literally in the article: “Our paper says that the Atlantic overturning has not declined yet. That doesn’t say anything about its future, but it doesn’t appear the anticipated changes have occurred yet.” The study is a stark contrast to a 2018 study that said the AMOC had declined over the last 70 years." ... “Our results imply that, rather than a substantial decline, the AMOC is more likely to experience a limited decline over the 21st century—still some weakening, but less drastic than previous projections suggest.” Am I the only person here who actually read it?
      - coldtea 8mo ago
        No, but you might be the only person here who missed "The team found that the AMOC will only weaken by about 18 to 43 percent by the end of the 21st century." The idiotic article then downplays this horrific numbers because "Yeah, 43 percent is a lot, but it’s nowhere near what other climate models project". As if even a 20%-25% is not very bad already. And that's just one cherry-picked study, whereas the majority of the studies predict worse outcomes. But sure, let's pick the sole nicer looking as the comforting winner - the "just" 18%-43% reduction "nice" one.

"Another study in 2024 showed that a collapse of the AMOC before the year 2100 was unlikely."

by d_silin 8mo ago

"Another study in 2024 showed that a collapse of the AMOC before the year 2100 was unlikely."

If you read the article and that's the overall conclusion you came away with I'm not sure we read the same article. They're just pointing out that timing is uncertain, but the majority of diverse models show AMOC failure within a few generations and nearly all of them do if we extrapolate continued CO2 release growth.

d_silin 8mo ago
I hate endless catastrophism in the headlines. Article contents doesn't reflect the alarmist statement in the header.
- coldtea 8mo ago
  "The house will burn down" "Don't be alarmist, it's just the curtains that are on fire. Besides, there's a good chance it might rain".
  - d_silin 8mo ago
    Literally in the article: “Our paper says that the Atlantic overturning has not declined yet. That doesn’t say anything about its future, but it doesn’t appear the anticipated changes have occurred yet.” The study is a stark contrast to a 2018 study that said the AMOC had declined over the last 70 years." ... “Our results imply that, rather than a substantial decline, the AMOC is more likely to experience a limited decline over the 21st century—still some weakening, but less drastic than previous projections suggest.” Am I the only person here who actually read it?
    - coldtea 8mo ago
      No, but you might be the only person here who missed "The team found that the AMOC will only weaken by about 18 to 43 percent by the end of the 21st century." The idiotic article then downplays this horrific numbers because "Yeah, 43 percent is a lot, but it’s nowhere near what other climate models project". As if even a 20%-25% is not very bad already. And that's just one cherry-picked study, whereas the majority of the studies predict worse outcomes. But sure, let's pick the sole nicer looking as the comforting winner - the "just" 18%-43% reduction "nice" one.