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Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse
- adlotsof 9mo agoThere was this movie, 'dont look up'
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- t0bia_s 9mo agoThere is also narrative to scare society. Because frightened people are easier to manipulate with.
- DangitBobby 9mo agoSo how do we tell the difference between something actually scary and something designed to manipulate us?
- t0bia_s 9mo agoDoes articles like these scare you? If so, why?
- DangitBobby 9mo agoI don't remember the article in question so I can't say, but I can tell you that you didn't answer my question.
- tenuousemphasis 9mo agoStupid people are easiest to manipulate m
- t0bia_s 9mo agoAnd you are...?
- d_silin 9mo ago"Another study in 2024 showed that a collapse of the AMOC before the year 2100 was unlikely."
- idiotsecant 9mo agoIf you read the article and that's the overall conclusion you came away with I'm not sure we read the same article. They're just pointing out that timing is uncertain, but the majority of diverse models show AMOC failure within a few generations and nearly all of them do if we extrapolate continued CO2 release growth.
- d_silin 9mo agoI hate endless catastrophism in the headlines. Article contents doesn't reflect the alarmist statement in the header.
- coldtea 9mo ago"The house will burn down" "Don't be alarmist, it's just the curtains that are on fire. Besides, there's a good chance it might rain".
- d_silin 9mo agoLiterally in the article: “Our paper says that the Atlantic overturning has not declined yet. That doesn’t say anything about its future, but it doesn’t appear the anticipated changes have occurred yet.” The study is a stark contrast to a 2018 study that said the AMOC had declined over the last 70 years." ... “Our results imply that, rather than a substantial decline, the AMOC is more likely to experience a limited decline over the 21st century—still some weakening, but less drastic than previous projections suggest.” Am I the only person here who actually read it?
- coldtea 9mo agoNo, but you might be the only person here who missed "The team found that the AMOC will only weaken by about 18 to 43 percent by the end of the 21st century." The idiotic article then downplays this horrific numbers because "Yeah, 43 percent is a lot, but it’s nowhere near what other climate models project". As if even a 20%-25% is not very bad already. And that's just one cherry-picked study, whereas the majority of the studies predict worse outcomes. But sure, let's pick the sole nicer looking as the comforting winner - the "just" 18%-43% reduction "nice" one.
- shrubby 9mo agoThis scary, yet almost nothing on the news. We're living in a fake world and pretending everything is fine. Adam Curtis made a movie HyperNormalisation and we're living it also today. Adam Curtis: “HyperNormalisation” is a word that was coined by a brilliant Russian historian who was writing about what it was like to live in the last years of the Soviet Union. What he said, which I thought was absolutely fascinating, was that in the 80s everyone from the top to the bottom of Soviet society knew that it wasn’t working, knew that it was corrupt, knew that the bosses were looting the system, know that the politicians had no alternative vision. And they knew that the bosses knew that they knew that. Everyone knew it was fake, but because no one had any alternative vision for a different kind of society, they just accepted this sense of total fakeness as normal. And this historian, Alexei Yurchak, coined the phrase “HyperNormalisation” to describe that feeling.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- coldtea 9mo agoThe top politicians, academics, businessmen, can party with underage children and even torture them, or dicuss blatant undemocratic actions that impact billions, and it's business as usual. You think they'd care for something as remote as the AMOC collapse?
- helloplanets 9mo agoIsn't this exactly the point the original post is making?
- roenxi 9mo agoIt isn't actually all that scary; humans cope pretty well over a wide variety of temperatures. If the change caught everyone by surprise it'd be a huge problem but it seems to be fairly well understood and there is lots of time to adjust. Worst case scenario seems to be that people will stop migrating to Europe.
- deleted 9mo ago
- renewiltord 9mo agoIs this real? https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/research-frontiers/how-a-swiss-us-study-challenges-what-we-know-about-the-gulf-stream/88789245 https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/research-frontiers/how-a-swiss-... Says it’s not. Seems like this kind of disaster engagement bait that’s super popular now
- idiotsecant 9mo ago>The AMOC will decline substantially, that’s virtually certain and the consequences will be extremely grave. All serious experts (including the nature study you linked a popsci article about) agree this is a problem that will have a devastating impact on humanity in the future. We're just quibbling about how devastating and how soon.
- skybrian 9mo agoIt's important, but if it happens, the main effects are expected to be after 2100. That seems pretty relevant for any plans you might make.
- layman51 9mo agoBut doesn’t that article say that it hasn’t weakened from “between 1963 and 2017” with the important caveat being that after 2017, maybe there’s been more acceleration? Some other commenter on this thread also posted a similar statement about how its collapse is unlikely before 2100, but that’s not very far away which should be very concerning.
- f_allwein 9mo agoHere’s the science: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/possible-north-atlantic-overturning-circulation-shutdown-after-2100-in-high-emission-future https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/possible-nort... „Under high-emission scenarios, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key system of ocean currents that also includes the Gulf Stream, could shut down after the year 2100.“
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- HardCodedBias 9mo agoI saw this movie! It was awesome. When that wave washed over New York, awesome! The freezing helicopter, woot! I also liked the South Park parody.
- Ygg2 9mo agoAMOC makes Europe hotter than expected, and US east coast colder. Europe is already hotter than expected. AMOC collapse in a heating world wouldn't mean much. It seems to me that whatever cooling from it will be offset by global warming. AMOC could be a generally bad thing for biodiversity or crops, but it's not going to stop global warming.
- coldtea 9mo agoThat's some industrial level cope. "Climate disaster affecting a mechanism Europe depended for millenia to keep warm? No biggie, we are already have another climate disaster making Europe hotter, they'll just cancel each other out" Not just second and third order effects, many can't even understand first level effects.
- Ygg2 9mo agoWhere is the cope? I said things will suck. US gets hotter, Europe gets colder and there are cascading effects from those. Changed weather patterns and biodiversity loss as temperatures rapidly shift. That said, a new ice age it will not be. If your local temperatures get closer to polar, and polar gets closer to tropic, I don't see the logic of it will cause an ice age. You can't have AMOC positive feedback loop from albedo if enough ice doesn't form. And you didn't provide any mechanisms outside of ad hominems. Not to mention past AMOC data is missing one key parameter - Humanity. On account of us not being there. What happens when humans are cold? They warm themselves usually with CO2 emitting heat sources. Last time AMOC was around only CO2 source was the volcano. They don't care about heat. We know how to warm up the planet. It's cooling down without massive casualties that's hard.
- SanjayMehta 9mo ago[flagged]
- globalnode 9mo agoim sure the responsibility for fixing everything will fall on all of us. maybe if we get another bin with a new coloured lid we can get busy sorting all our plastics into soft, hard, transparent, semi-opaque, labelled, bought before tuesday, stored in the fridge, etc... some busywork for the masses ought to fix things up. heavy fines and moral outrage if you dont comply! carbon credits will ofc play a big role in industries' response, and gatekeepers of public policy will make a lot of money.
- SadErn 9mo ago[dead]
- palmotea 9mo ago> Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse The title is egregiously exaggerated. It implies humanity will go extinct if this happens, when it obviously won't. The actual article doesn't even come anywhere close to making that claim.
- 8bitsrule 9mo agoSomehow humanity survived 10,000 years of the last ice age. Without central heating. Of course, furs will be harder to come by.
- simianparrot 9mo agoYeah but they didn’t have social media algorithms turning their brains into slush
- gyrovagueGeist 9mo agoThey also didn't have nuclear weapons to use in global conflicts over resources.
- unglaublich 9mo agoThey were already excellent at survival, and they migrated, and many of them died young. Sure, _humanity_ will survive, but a large part of the population won't.
- palmotea 9mo ago> They were already excellent at survival, and they migrated, and many of them died young. Sure, _humanity_ will survive, but a large part of the population won't. Hence the egregious exaggeration of the title. Even large fractions of the population dying != "Bye Bye Humanity."
- bawolff 9mo agoBeing cold doesn't seem that big a problem. I think the bigger concern is what sudden climate shifts might do to agriculture. If some farmland becomes much less viable on a wide basis, that might be much harder to adjust to on the short term. I can't help but think of all the historical societies that collapsed due to even mild pressure on the food supply.
- bawolff 9mo ago> Back in 2021, a study in Nature Geosciences showed that the AMOC was the weakest it’s been in more than 1,000 years. Out of curiosity, what happened 1000 years ago to make it so weak? 1000 years ago is still human time scales - there were people living in europe and north america at the time. We have written records from the europeans at least. Its not like this was 100,000 years ago.
- adgjlsfhk1 9mo agothe further back you go, the less evidence we have. we don't know it was this week 1000 years ago, it's just that the error bars got big enough that we can't yet rule it out.
- bawolff 9mo agoI guess this is the study https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z unfortunately i can only see the abstract so its hard to say.
- nerdsniper 9mo agoHere you go: https://sci-hub.ru/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z https://sci-hub.ru/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z
- jorisboris 9mo ago1000 years ago there was the medieval warm period which at least for Northern Europe provided warmer temperatures than today (eg grapes in the Netherlands) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
- aqme28 9mo agoYes, the title is exaggerated. But I think a lot of you are underestimating the societal impact of roughly half a billion climate refugees. That kind of destabilization could easily lead to societal collapse, world war, etc... The Syrian refugee crisis meant something like a million people fleeing into Europe and it caused massive political upheavals.
- overfeed 9mo ago> But I think a lot of you are underestimating the societal impact of roughly half a billion climate refugees. If North America and Europe enters an ice age, the preferred term would be "climate-expatriates"
- andreapaiola 9mo agoThere is no clear or remotely clear timeline. There is no clear or remotely clear solution. So, there is no actionable. We don't know enough.
- DangitBobby 9mo agoThat's not true. We suspect this will eventually happen if climate emissions aren't eventually stopped or reversed. So the action is the stop or reverse climate emissions.
- tenuousemphasis 9mo agoThere is one and only one solution: stop burning fossil fuels which dump CO₂ into the air.
- t0bia_s 9mo agoYou breathing CO2 out. Should we stop breathing? We dump CO2 in air to heat our living places to survive winter. Should we freeze to death? I prefer to plant trees. And stop cutting them down in cities because of "leaves clogging the drains”.
- rcxdude 9mo agoThe CO2 for the power you use (directly and indirectly) is much, much more than what you breathe out. And heat pumps can supply heating without CO2 emissions. Planting trees is good but it's only a net carbon sink on an infeasibly large scale and only if you also cut down and bury the trees periodically.
- t0bia_s 9mo agoYou do not know anything about my power use. Heat pump needs electric energy to work. Which is not cheap and also use CO2 to produce.
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- zkmon 9mo agoAs long as things gradual enough, similar to Roman empire collapse, you wouldn't even recognize the collapse. Any change is seen as good or bad, only by the people who saw both ends of it and categorize the change as such. If a change happens through multiple generations, each generations sees only a part of the change. Specially the younger population can only see the change through the past decade or two. That explains why the youth are always merrier than the older folks who have a bigger burden of mempries.
- valvix 9mo agoCucked by cloudflare with VPN on Doesn't load without VPN Peak modern internet
- metalman 9mo agoThe sattelite feed links below update every day or more often, and show varios views and visual data of what is happening in the North Atlantic. I have watched for years, and the last few years are markedly different.The SST (sea surface temerature) charts are especialy interesting as these provide a real time visual representation of the amount of heat in the system (earth surface), and watching things like major weather events like hurricanes or polar vortexes exhanging heat with the ocean is also interesting. Depending on conditions things like the gulf stream itself can up in the visible light images from the GOES sattelite and things like sea ice can be corelated in multiple sattelite feeds that show the direct conection between seaice, and ocean currents in real time, superimposed on past conditions. My conclusions are, that there is more heat and less ice, and much more mixing of water bodys, where it looks like heat builds and builds untill some threshold is reached and then hot and cold currents interact suddenly and then reach a new equalibrium. By suddenly I mean in a ridiculously fast movement of bodys of water the size of continents....takes a few days. Most of these feeds have been running in the same format for decades and I suppose I now have more than 1000 hr's observing, every morning with my coffee, my phone working as a 50 billion dollar front seat on the planets reactions to our activities. Very cool, and strange to watch as things start to look serious. https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/goes/ https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/goes/ https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/ https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/ https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh
- throwaway290 9mo agoThe text below the youtube video is not a transcript of the video, it's more like a short summary. The video is much longer than that. I didn't appreciate how he slid into a sponsored block without saying that he slid into a sponsored block. Not only that, he never says it's a sponsor, not within this 2 minute sponsor block, not before or after. The only way to know it is by looking at chapter titles or by guessing by the changed style of the video with graphics and "link below" stuff (so if you're just listening you'd never know). Even if it's relevant to what you're saying (you can pick your sponsors so that's a given) it should be explicitly marked. Even if you think they do a good thing (presumably you would think so, you picked them as a sponsor) it should be marked. Even if it was a non profit (it's not a non-profit).
- roter 9mo ago> ... potential collapse of the Atlantic Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC. The Gulf Stream is not also known as the AMOC. The nature of the Gulf Stream (intense surface current flowing off the eastern coast of North America) is largely driven by wind torque (westerlies in the mid-latitudes, easterlies in the tropics and polar regions) with the intensification due to Coriolis and coastal friction. What we're talking about collapsing is the overturning part largely driven by the differences in salt & temperature between the surface and the abyss. This overturning intensifies the heat transport from tropics to poles and pulls the Gulf Stream farther north: All Ireland is washed by the Gulf Stream -- Ulysses, James Joyce
- HackerThemAll 9mo agoMy amateurish view of this tells me that the amount of heat that's going to concentrate in Mexican Gulf (yes, Mexican) should Gulf Stream slow down/stop, will have enough power to push the hot waters through to the north anyway. The heat cannot just accumulate in the Gulf indefinitely. The Gulf Stream may hiccup, but it'll eventually restart/resume.