5 ms·

After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot. The only thing that can stop

After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot. The only thing that can stop mainland China taking from taking Taiwan is a US president like Bill Clinton who had the courage to put two United States aircraft carrier strike forces between the mainland and the island to defend democracy which gave us TMSC. I don't see the current snowflake leadership doing that. While I was there, mainland China told the people of Taiwan to shut their mouths and nobody said a word about China after. The reason mainland China hasn't taken Taiwan is because they don't have to. I do not like the government of China, however, they are building infrastructure around the world especially in Africa, Asia, and South America. They are not destroying things like Russia does every single day. Their approach to diplomacy now is building. For the same reason, China isn't commit terrorist attacks on other countries. However, Russia is committing terrorist attacks on other countries so it easy to believe that they are responsible for terrorist attacks.

rconti 8mo ago
To be fair to a US president who doesn't deserve any kind of fairness, the US/China dynamic 30 years ago is very different from today's dynamic -- and this has a lot more to do with China's growth than anything the US has done (or not done).
- dataviz1000 8mo ago
  The only thing that can stop China from taking Taiwan is a US president willing to put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island the mainland. That is the same today as it was 30 years ago. However, today, unlike in the 90s the mainland can take the island in 3 days without firing a shot. > this has a lot more to do with China's growth That is my point. Because of China's growth they don't need to take the island by force or commit terrorist attacks against other countries especially in Europe. Today, countries like the Bahamas, Peru, Afghanistan, and Nigeria are welcoming China and their infrastructure money (not destroying infrastructure like Russia does) with open arms.
JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
> After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot This does not reflect the opinions of any military person I know who has knowledgeably commented on the topic, all of whom have spent quite a bit longer than 6 weeks on Taiwan.
- dataviz1000 8mo ago
  Their defense system is as big a joke as the architecture design in Hualien. Nobody living on the island will openly criticize the mainland for the same reason nobody will point a weapon at anyone from the mainland. They know if the mainland wants the island, they surround the island on day 1, take over the island on day 2, and install their own government on day 3. They know they do not want a record of opposing the mainland in words or violence because of the consquences. I'm not saying this to be mean. I'm being honest and because the current United States administration is a bunch of snowflakes, it puts the democracy in Taiwan in great danger you need to honest about that too. The only country I think that is prepared to defend against China is Vietnam.
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    > if the mainland wants the island, they surround the island on day 1, take over the island on day 2, and install their own government on day 3 Now add typhoon season, the artillery batteries in the mountains, China’s lack of blue-water naval operations (let alone combined arms) and, in terms of allies, the Philippines and Japan. Sorry. But this analogy reeks of Moscow ca. 2022.
    - dataviz1000 8mo ago
      The Taiwanese are not going to fight. This will be much more like the Taliban recapturing Kabul. If the artillery batteries are like the infrastructure on the east coast, likely they don't work. Taking the train out there is very dangerous. Not 1 in every 100 people dying because the architecture is shit and the local governments are super corrupt dangerous, but incompetence and people just don't care about maintaining them dangerous. They have ~400 combat aircraft but the mainland won't allow them acquire f35s or patriot missiles and anything that would really be a threat. The Taiwanese are not going to fight. China told them to be quiet and under threat that if they speak out they and their families will later face retribution, everyone went silent. They are surely not going to take arms against China. My dad had a friend, an scientist from China, in the 80s. She was a critic of the government. She had one child in China. They removed one of her young son's testicles and told her to shut up or they would remove the other. The Taiwanese know how it works. I spent 3 weeks in the Philippines and 2 months in Japan. Neither can afford a war. The Philippines is too poor and Japan's debt is hovering around 235%–263% of its GDP. Japan doesn't even have official diplomatic relation with Taiwan let alone a defense treaty. Japan is a mess with or without a war. The only thing that will stop China from attacking Taiwan, is a US president who isn't a whining snowflake. If you are US citizen I would recommend electing a US president with a backbone who isn't a pedophile -- for Taiwan's sake.
tim333 8mo ago
The sea still makes quite a barrier to invasion. The Russians had to abandon Kherson because there was a river in the way and have had to abandon most of the black sea because Ukraine sinks their boats with missiles and drones.
- dataviz1000 8mo ago
  The Chinese navy surrounded the island and nobody did a fucking thing! [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    > The Chinese navy surrounded the island and nobody did a fucking thing! Because nothing happened. If your neighbour is on an acid trip, you leave them alone. They're not actually breaking into your house yet.
    - dataviz1000 8mo ago
      Remember when Russia first went in and started killing children? Putin claimed to be doing military exercises on the border with Ukraine. It is very easy for China to flip the switch and turn having surrounded the island with navy into a full scale assault. The United States should consider electing a different president who isn't an afraid snowflake and will protect democracy like Clinton.
      - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
        > Remember when Russia first went in and started killing children? Yes. China isn’t killing children. > United States should consider electing a different president You’re trying to shoehorn a political view into a bad argument. That degrades both arguments’ quality.
LorenPechtel 8mo ago
China most certainly can destroy Taiwan. What would be very hard is taking it intact. That needs lots of boots on the ground--and how do you get those boots on the ground when any ship that tries to get too close finds itself facing a variety of seeker weapons. China shoot them down when they are fired from a few miles out? Not likely. Even not near land, look at what happened to the Moskova--targeting a sea skimmer is hard. And it's a sea battle--drones can pick their own targets and thus can't be jammed. What happens when the ship is met by a hundred drones with explosives? Doesn't take much of a processor to compare the image of a ship with the ocean.
- dataviz1000 8mo ago
  One month ago the Chinese navy surrounded the island. [0] That is a siege. Nothing comes in and nothing goes out. The eastern side of the island's infrastructure is complete shit because corrupt local governments. They can't defend it. The Chinese can land and take the mountains and have the high ground easily. The west side can be completely obliterated with rockets from the mainland. The citizens wouldn't challenged the mainland in 2024, they won't challenge the mainland today, and they won't challenge the mainland in the future. Likely the reason the mainland hasn't taken the island yet IS because they can take it in 3 days if they wanted. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025
  - LorenPechtel 8mo ago
    Obliterate, certainly. Taiwan has no ability to defend itself from destruction. But China wants Taiwan intact.

rconti 8mo ago

To be fair to a US president who doesn't deserve any kind of fairness, the US/China dynamic 30 years ago is very different from today's dynamic -- and this has a lot more to do with China's growth than anything the US has done (or not done).

dataviz1000 8mo ago
The only thing that can stop China from taking Taiwan is a US president willing to put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island the mainland. That is the same today as it was 30 years ago. However, today, unlike in the 90s the mainland can take the island in 3 days without firing a shot. > this has a lot more to do with China's growth That is my point. Because of China's growth they don't need to take the island by force or commit terrorist attacks against other countries especially in Europe. Today, countries like the Bahamas, Peru, Afghanistan, and Nigeria are welcoming China and their infrastructure money (not destroying infrastructure like Russia does) with open arms.

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago

> After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot This does not reflect the opinions of any military person I know who has knowledgeably commented on the topic, all of whom have spent quite a bit longer than 6 weeks on Taiwan.

dataviz1000 8mo ago
Their defense system is as big a joke as the architecture design in Hualien. Nobody living on the island will openly criticize the mainland for the same reason nobody will point a weapon at anyone from the mainland. They know if the mainland wants the island, they surround the island on day 1, take over the island on day 2, and install their own government on day 3. They know they do not want a record of opposing the mainland in words or violence because of the consquences. I'm not saying this to be mean. I'm being honest and because the current United States administration is a bunch of snowflakes, it puts the democracy in Taiwan in great danger you need to honest about that too. The only country I think that is prepared to defend against China is Vietnam.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  > if the mainland wants the island, they surround the island on day 1, take over the island on day 2, and install their own government on day 3 Now add typhoon season, the artillery batteries in the mountains, China’s lack of blue-water naval operations (let alone combined arms) and, in terms of allies, the Philippines and Japan. Sorry. But this analogy reeks of Moscow ca. 2022.
  - dataviz1000 8mo ago
    The Taiwanese are not going to fight. This will be much more like the Taliban recapturing Kabul. If the artillery batteries are like the infrastructure on the east coast, likely they don't work. Taking the train out there is very dangerous. Not 1 in every 100 people dying because the architecture is shit and the local governments are super corrupt dangerous, but incompetence and people just don't care about maintaining them dangerous. They have ~400 combat aircraft but the mainland won't allow them acquire f35s or patriot missiles and anything that would really be a threat. The Taiwanese are not going to fight. China told them to be quiet and under threat that if they speak out they and their families will later face retribution, everyone went silent. They are surely not going to take arms against China. My dad had a friend, an scientist from China, in the 80s. She was a critic of the government. She had one child in China. They removed one of her young son's testicles and told her to shut up or they would remove the other. The Taiwanese know how it works. I spent 3 weeks in the Philippines and 2 months in Japan. Neither can afford a war. The Philippines is too poor and Japan's debt is hovering around 235%–263% of its GDP. Japan doesn't even have official diplomatic relation with Taiwan let alone a defense treaty. Japan is a mess with or without a war. The only thing that will stop China from attacking Taiwan, is a US president who isn't a whining snowflake. If you are US citizen I would recommend electing a US president with a backbone who isn't a pedophile -- for Taiwan's sake.

tim333 8mo ago

The sea still makes quite a barrier to invasion. The Russians had to abandon Kherson because there was a river in the way and have had to abandon most of the black sea because Ukraine sinks their boats with missiles and drones.

dataviz1000 8mo ago
The Chinese navy surrounded the island and nobody did a fucking thing! [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  > The Chinese navy surrounded the island and nobody did a fucking thing! Because nothing happened. If your neighbour is on an acid trip, you leave them alone. They're not actually breaking into your house yet.
  - dataviz1000 8mo ago
    Remember when Russia first went in and started killing children? Putin claimed to be doing military exercises on the border with Ukraine. It is very easy for China to flip the switch and turn having surrounded the island with navy into a full scale assault. The United States should consider electing a different president who isn't an afraid snowflake and will protect democracy like Clinton.
    - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
      > Remember when Russia first went in and started killing children? Yes. China isn’t killing children. > United States should consider electing a different president You’re trying to shoehorn a political view into a bad argument. That degrades both arguments’ quality.

LorenPechtel 8mo ago

China most certainly can destroy Taiwan. What would be very hard is taking it intact. That needs lots of boots on the ground--and how do you get those boots on the ground when any ship that tries to get too close finds itself facing a variety of seeker weapons. China shoot them down when they are fired from a few miles out? Not likely. Even not near land, look at what happened to the Moskova--targeting a sea skimmer is hard. And it's a sea battle--drones can pick their own targets and thus can't be jammed. What happens when the ship is met by a hundred drones with explosives? Doesn't take much of a processor to compare the image of a ship with the ocean.

dataviz1000 8mo ago
One month ago the Chinese navy surrounded the island. [0] That is a siege. Nothing comes in and nothing goes out. The eastern side of the island's infrastructure is complete shit because corrupt local governments. They can't defend it. The Chinese can land and take the mountains and have the high ground easily. The west side can be completely obliterated with rockets from the mainland. The citizens wouldn't challenged the mainland in 2024, they won't challenge the mainland today, and they won't challenge the mainland in the future. Likely the reason the mainland hasn't taken the island yet IS because they can take it in 3 days if they wanted. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission_2025
- LorenPechtel 8mo ago
  Obliterate, certainly. Taiwan has no ability to defend itself from destruction. But China wants Taiwan intact.