5 ms·

Russia is a candidate, but it's far from the only candidate, and it's not clear how this advances their interests. Why not China, for instance? Or a random terr

Russia is a candidate, but it's far from the only candidate, and it's not clear how this advances their interests. Why not China, for instance? Or a random terrorist group? Speculation is fun but it's important to actually make statements grounded in reality.

cindyllm 8mo ago
[dead]
colejhudson 8mo ago
No, Russia is the prime (if not only) candidate. Why? They've been developing a system of "single-use agents" to overwhelm European governments and keep them on their back foot. This is likely a test run. A lovely article on this was recently published in The New Yorker that you may enjoy: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/to-build-a-fire https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/to-build-a-fir....
- Telemakhos 8mo ago
  I'd suggest that radical left-wing elements indigenous to Italy, such as those behind the Turin protests that left 100 police officers wounded a few days ago, are a perfectly plausible candidate; not every attack comes from without. There was another protest against the Olympics in Milan itself last night by left-wing elements who believe the games are economically and socially unsustainable [0] [0] https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/07/europe/italy-protests-rail-damage-latam-intl https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/07/europe/italy-protests-rail-da...
  - ben_w 8mo ago
    Unfortunately with stuff like this, nation states will use groups like that as proxies. Lots of governments. For example, there's some other news at the moment that the USA is financing pro-MAGA groups across Europe, which I mention more because of Jan 6 happened at all than due to any specific evidence that the US government has knowingly given state support for terrorists.
- sozforex 8mo ago
  Israel is another candidate, given that Israel has beef with Spain for Spanish government not supporting/approving the genocide in Gaza.
  - direwolf20 8mo ago
    I don't believe that without evidence. Europe tacitly supports Israel even while some parts of it claim not to, and Spain is internationally irrelevant.
    - ted_bunny 8mo ago
      Exactly why they are singled out for chilling effect. They cannot retaliate substantially. Evidence is not easy to find on these topics. It's espionage for christ's sake. You need to analyze material incentives and be familiar with the methods used. You cannot expect the media to hand you the answers, because that is not the purpose of the media especially on topics like this.
  - LorenPechtel 8mo ago
    This makes no sense. Israel responds to words with words. They respond to force with force. And they are busy enough dealing with the trouble that Iran keeps stirring up, they're not going to do anything to Spain. (Not to say that it would be out of the question for them to go after terrorists who were in Spain, but it would be very focused. Look at what happened after Munich--multiple European countries were incredibly inept about extraditing the attackers so Israel responded with assassination teams. Not strikes on anything they didn't believe had hurt them.) (And there never was a genocide, but this isn't the thread for it.)
    - sozforex 8mo ago
      You seem to approve extrajudicial killing / assassination. Would be interesting if some countries decide to start assassinating Israeli terrorists in West Bank.
      - 8mo ago
runjake 8mo ago
> Why not China, for instance? A couple reasons: 1. China's not particularly known to conduct this sort of activity this far from their mainland. 2. What would be their motive? China is actively trying to fill that "superpower" void being left in Europe by President Trump's unpredictable behavior. > Or a random terrorist group? Plausible. > Speculation is fun but it's important to actually make statements grounded in reality. I look at it from the standpoint of motive and history. See "GRU Unit 29155"[1]. Russia has both. Russia is on the brink of war with Europe. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GRU_Unit_29155#Activities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GRU_Unit_29155#Activities
- throw10920 8mo ago
  Ok, this is actually substantial - much more so than GP's speculation. I think you've convinced me.
  - runjake 8mo ago
    Thank you, I just started as an intern in CCP counter-intel. 不要相信任何人 :-P
  - david-gpu 8mo ago
    Perhaps reading the sources the GP provided would further cement your understanding.
- enterprisetalk 8mo ago
  > Russia is on the brink of war with Europe. EU / NATO is on the brink of making war with Russia official. There, FTFY.
  - cindyllm 8mo ago
    [dead]
  - soco 8mo ago
    As they should. Because the old politics of looking the other way had the only effect of emboldening the bullies to bully more.
alephnerd 8mo ago
> Why not China, for instance In this specific case, becuase China has historically had significant FDI within Italy's infrastructure sector. China has significant issues with the EU and is aligned with Russia, but it isn't in China's incentive to conduct violent actions outside of the Chinese diaspora within Europe (which is a separate sticking point).
dataviz1000 8mo ago
After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot. The only thing that can stop mainland China taking from taking Taiwan is a US president like Bill Clinton who had the courage to put two United States aircraft carrier strike forces between the mainland and the island to defend democracy which gave us TMSC. I don't see the current snowflake leadership doing that. While I was there, mainland China told the people of Taiwan to shut their mouths and nobody said a word about China after. The reason mainland China hasn't taken Taiwan is because they don't have to. I do not like the government of China, however, they are building infrastructure around the world especially in Africa, Asia, and South America. They are not destroying things like Russia does every single day. Their approach to diplomacy now is building. For the same reason, China isn't commit terrorist attacks on other countries. However, Russia is committing terrorist attacks on other countries so it easy to believe that they are responsible for terrorist attacks.
- rconti 8mo ago
  To be fair to a US president who doesn't deserve any kind of fairness, the US/China dynamic 30 years ago is very different from today's dynamic -- and this has a lot more to do with China's growth than anything the US has done (or not done).
  - dataviz1000 8mo ago
    The only thing that can stop China from taking Taiwan is a US president willing to put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island the mainland. That is the same today as it was 30 years ago. However, today, unlike in the 90s the mainland can take the island in 3 days without firing a shot. > this has a lot more to do with China's growth That is my point. Because of China's growth they don't need to take the island by force or commit terrorist attacks against other countries especially in Europe. Today, countries like the Bahamas, Peru, Afghanistan, and Nigeria are welcoming China and their infrastructure money (not destroying infrastructure like Russia does) with open arms.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
watwut 8mo ago
What about USA.
ted_bunny 8mo ago
Your comment is a call to reason and doesn't make any susbtantive claims, yet it's downvoted into the grey. People are not debating this topic honestly.

cindyllm 8mo ago

[dead]

colejhudson 8mo ago

No, Russia is the prime (if not only) candidate. Why? They've been developing a system of "single-use agents" to overwhelm European governments and keep them on their back foot. This is likely a test run. A lovely article on this was recently published in The New Yorker that you may enjoy: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/to-build-a-fire https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/to-build-a-fir....

Telemakhos 8mo ago
I'd suggest that radical left-wing elements indigenous to Italy, such as those behind the Turin protests that left 100 police officers wounded a few days ago, are a perfectly plausible candidate; not every attack comes from without. There was another protest against the Olympics in Milan itself last night by left-wing elements who believe the games are economically and socially unsustainable [0] [0] https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/07/europe/italy-protests-rail-damage-latam-intl https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/07/europe/italy-protests-rail-da...
- ben_w 8mo ago
  Unfortunately with stuff like this, nation states will use groups like that as proxies. Lots of governments. For example, there's some other news at the moment that the USA is financing pro-MAGA groups across Europe, which I mention more because of Jan 6 happened at all than due to any specific evidence that the US government has knowingly given state support for terrorists.
sozforex 8mo ago
Israel is another candidate, given that Israel has beef with Spain for Spanish government not supporting/approving the genocide in Gaza.
- direwolf20 8mo ago
  I don't believe that without evidence. Europe tacitly supports Israel even while some parts of it claim not to, and Spain is internationally irrelevant.
  - ted_bunny 8mo ago
    Exactly why they are singled out for chilling effect. They cannot retaliate substantially. Evidence is not easy to find on these topics. It's espionage for christ's sake. You need to analyze material incentives and be familiar with the methods used. You cannot expect the media to hand you the answers, because that is not the purpose of the media especially on topics like this.
- LorenPechtel 8mo ago
  This makes no sense. Israel responds to words with words. They respond to force with force. And they are busy enough dealing with the trouble that Iran keeps stirring up, they're not going to do anything to Spain. (Not to say that it would be out of the question for them to go after terrorists who were in Spain, but it would be very focused. Look at what happened after Munich--multiple European countries were incredibly inept about extraditing the attackers so Israel responded with assassination teams. Not strikes on anything they didn't believe had hurt them.) (And there never was a genocide, but this isn't the thread for it.)
  - sozforex 8mo ago
    You seem to approve extrajudicial killing / assassination. Would be interesting if some countries decide to start assassinating Israeli terrorists in West Bank.
    - 8mo ago

runjake 8mo ago

> Why not China, for instance? A couple reasons: 1. China's not particularly known to conduct this sort of activity this far from their mainland. 2. What would be their motive? China is actively trying to fill that "superpower" void being left in Europe by President Trump's unpredictable behavior. > Or a random terrorist group? Plausible. > Speculation is fun but it's important to actually make statements grounded in reality. I look at it from the standpoint of motive and history. See "GRU Unit 29155"[1]. Russia has both. Russia is on the brink of war with Europe. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GRU_Unit_29155#Activities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GRU_Unit_29155#Activities

throw10920 8mo ago
Ok, this is actually substantial - much more so than GP's speculation. I think you've convinced me.
- runjake 8mo ago
  Thank you, I just started as an intern in CCP counter-intel. 不要相信任何人 :-P
- david-gpu 8mo ago
  Perhaps reading the sources the GP provided would further cement your understanding.
enterprisetalk 8mo ago
> Russia is on the brink of war with Europe. EU / NATO is on the brink of making war with Russia official. There, FTFY.
- cindyllm 8mo ago
  [dead]
- soco 8mo ago
  As they should. Because the old politics of looking the other way had the only effect of emboldening the bullies to bully more.

alephnerd 8mo ago

> Why not China, for instance In this specific case, becuase China has historically had significant FDI within Italy's infrastructure sector. China has significant issues with the EU and is aligned with Russia, but it isn't in China's incentive to conduct violent actions outside of the Chinese diaspora within Europe (which is a separate sticking point).

dataviz1000 8mo ago

After 6 weeks in Taiwan, one thing became very evident, mainland China can take the island in 3 days without firing a single shot. The only thing that can stop mainland China taking from taking Taiwan is a US president like Bill Clinton who had the courage to put two United States aircraft carrier strike forces between the mainland and the island to defend democracy which gave us TMSC. I don't see the current snowflake leadership doing that. While I was there, mainland China told the people of Taiwan to shut their mouths and nobody said a word about China after. The reason mainland China hasn't taken Taiwan is because they don't have to. I do not like the government of China, however, they are building infrastructure around the world especially in Africa, Asia, and South America. They are not destroying things like Russia does every single day. Their approach to diplomacy now is building. For the same reason, China isn't commit terrorist attacks on other countries. However, Russia is committing terrorist attacks on other countries so it easy to believe that they are responsible for terrorist attacks.

rconti 8mo ago
To be fair to a US president who doesn't deserve any kind of fairness, the US/China dynamic 30 years ago is very different from today's dynamic -- and this has a lot more to do with China's growth than anything the US has done (or not done).
- dataviz1000 8mo ago
  The only thing that can stop China from taking Taiwan is a US president willing to put two aircraft carrier strike groups between the island the mainland. That is the same today as it was 30 years ago. However, today, unlike in the 90s the mainland can take the island in 3 days without firing a shot. > this has a lot more to do with China's growth That is my point. Because of China's growth they don't need to take the island by force or commit terrorist attacks against other countries especially in Europe. Today, countries like the Bahamas, Peru, Afghanistan, and Nigeria are welcoming China and their infrastructure money (not destroying infrastructure like Russia does) with open arms.
JumpCrisscross 8mo ago

watwut 8mo ago

What about USA.

ted_bunny 8mo ago

Your comment is a call to reason and doesn't make any susbtantive claims, yet it's downvoted into the grey. People are not debating this topic honestly.