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The worst age group behind the wheel is by far 16-25. The middle age group is the safest and the gap is actually moderate compared to 70-75.

by tedggh 8mo ago

calpaterson 8mo ago
You're taking about statistical averages but I'm talking about a significant minority of over-70s who are wildly dangerous. Most of them only stop driving when they cause an accident. Sometimes its a serious one. There are already some measures for young people, like the 6 point thing. Maybe there could be more. Doesn't change the facts about dangerous OAP drivers
- bumby 8mo ago
  “I'm talking about a significant minority of [under 25 year olds] who are wildly dangerous.” (Edit mine) Don’t you think that statement is also true?
  - LEDThereBeLight 8mo ago
    16 year olds get better at driving.
    - bumby 8mo ago
      They also get less likely to commit crime, but that’s not how we gauge risk. We don’t generally say “that teenager’s crime risk is going down so they are less risky than that geriatric whose crime risk is fairly constant.” Risk probability is usually the area under a hazard rate curve. Over a long enough interval, that reduction in risk would be important. So what is the appropriate time interval for these risk assessments?
- 7thpower 8mo ago
  > Most over-70s are significantly worse than the average driver and some are so dangerous they shouldn't be on the road at all. > You're taking about statistical averages but I'm talking about a significant minority of over-70s who are wildly dangerous. You sure about that?
  - whimsicalism 8mo ago
    Over 70s do have higher rates of accidents per 100m over average, although it is small until you get to 80+.
    - 7thpower 8mo ago
      I was referring to the contradictory statements.
CapmCrackaWaka 8mo ago
Yes - I’ve seen the pricing algorithms at several large insurers. Massive surcharges for young people 16-25, rates level out 30-55, and then slowly start to go back up, but it’s a slow increase compared to the young ones.
throw0101c 8mo ago
> The worst age group behind the wheel is by far 16-25. The middle age group is the safest and the gap is actually moderate compared to 70-75. Retest everyone's skill every 3-5 years (whenever up for driver card renewal).
SilasX 8mo ago
AIUI, that's a misleading figure, because the elderly self-correct, in awareness of the greater difficulty, by driving a lot less, so the greater danger is masked in the per-unit-time accident rate. So, in theory, policy could appropriately adjust for this dynamic by only requiring the test of over-70s driving more than X miles/year, but that adds hassle to enforcement.

The worst age group behind the wheel is by far 16-25. The middle age group is the safest and the gap is actually moderate compared to 70-75.

by tedggh 8mo ago

The worst age group behind the wheel is by far 16-25. The middle age group is the safest and the gap is actually moderate compared to 70-75.

calpaterson 8mo ago

You're taking about statistical averages but I'm talking about a significant minority of over-70s who are wildly dangerous. Most of them only stop driving when they cause an accident. Sometimes its a serious one. There are already some measures for young people, like the 6 point thing. Maybe there could be more. Doesn't change the facts about dangerous OAP drivers

bumby 8mo ago
“I'm talking about a significant minority of [under 25 year olds] who are wildly dangerous.” (Edit mine) Don’t you think that statement is also true?
- LEDThereBeLight 8mo ago
  16 year olds get better at driving.
  - bumby 8mo ago
    They also get less likely to commit crime, but that’s not how we gauge risk. We don’t generally say “that teenager’s crime risk is going down so they are less risky than that geriatric whose crime risk is fairly constant.” Risk probability is usually the area under a hazard rate curve. Over a long enough interval, that reduction in risk would be important. So what is the appropriate time interval for these risk assessments?
7thpower 8mo ago
> Most over-70s are significantly worse than the average driver and some are so dangerous they shouldn't be on the road at all. > You're taking about statistical averages but I'm talking about a significant minority of over-70s who are wildly dangerous. You sure about that?
- whimsicalism 8mo ago
  Over 70s do have higher rates of accidents per 100m over average, although it is small until you get to 80+.
  - 7thpower 8mo ago
    I was referring to the contradictory statements.

CapmCrackaWaka 8mo ago

Yes - I’ve seen the pricing algorithms at several large insurers. Massive surcharges for young people 16-25, rates level out 30-55, and then slowly start to go back up, but it’s a slow increase compared to the young ones.

throw0101c 8mo ago

> The worst age group behind the wheel is by far 16-25. The middle age group is the safest and the gap is actually moderate compared to 70-75. Retest everyone's skill every 3-5 years (whenever up for driver card renewal).

SilasX 8mo ago

AIUI, that's a misleading figure, because the elderly self-correct, in awareness of the greater difficulty, by driving a lot less, so the greater danger is masked in the per-unit-time accident rate. So, in theory, policy could appropriately adjust for this dynamic by only requiring the test of over-70s driving more than X miles/year, but that adds hassle to enforcement.