Oh ok. :) But as a thought experiment, let's warp back in time 150 years. Some random guy you're talking to at the local pub claims that within 50 years, man wi

Oh ok. :) But as a thought experiment, let's warp back in time 150 years. Some random guy you're talking to at the local pub claims that within 50 years, man will build a heavier-than-air flying machine. Would you intuitively predict that this is going to happen? Or would your intuition suggest that we'd have to wait until we can build a mechanical replica of a bird? What if someone said that within 150 years you'd have a little machine you could hold in your hand that could bring up all of the world's information, and let you talk to anyone on the planet in real time? Human intuitions are great for hunting, gathering berries, navigating social situations, and other situations present in the ancestral environment, but evolution hasn't tuned us to be able to predict the future with our intuition. Just how bad are the cognitive biases employed by humans? Pretty bad: http://www.singinst.org/Biases.pdf http://www.singinst.org/Biases.pdf Anyway, not trying to pick a fight here -- I appreciate your reply above. Hope you enjoy that video.