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> Human drivers will be banned, the roads will be exclusively used by autonomous vehicles I basically agree with your premise that public transit as it exists

> Human drivers will be banned, the roads will be exclusively used by autonomous vehicles I basically agree with your premise that public transit as it exists today will be rendered obsolete, but I think this point here is where your prediction hits a wall. I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime, or the lifetime of anyone alive today. Waymo is amazing, but still just at the beginning of the long tail.

Jblx2 8mo ago
Is that: - I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 100% of roads in the lifetime of anyone alive today. or - I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 10% of roads... ...or is there some other percentage to qualify this? I guess I wouldn't expect there to be a decree that makes it happen all at once for a country. Especially a large country like the U.S.. More like, some really dense city will decide to make a tiny core autonomous vehicles only, and then some other cities also do years later. And then maybe it expands to something larger than just the core after 5 or 10 years. And so on...
- rootusrootus 8mo ago
  That is a fair point, since it is fairly safe to make "this absolute claim will never happen." And the person I replied to did say 'exclusively', which implies 100% elimination of human drivers. But still, I appreciate your nuance. And in the spirit of that nuance, I will revise my statement slightly. I think it is entirely possible we will eliminate drivers on 10% of roads. We have rules that are analogous to that already with limited access highways. Though I would rate this still as unlikely, since such roads only make up just over 1% of all the roads in the US as it is. Not sure what the % is for other countries, probably less. > some really dense city will decide to make a tiny core autonomous vehicles only Agree 100%, this kind of thing I do expect to see happen. We already have exclusions for cars altogether in favor of pedestrians, so the precedent is set.
xnx 8mo ago
> I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime It basically happened for horses.
- anigbrowl 8mo ago
  Horses don't vote.
  - xnx 8mo ago
    Neither do cars?
    - anigbrowl 8mo ago
      Drivers, however, absolutely do. And I do not see enough drivers voting away their own ability to drive any time soon.
      - semiquaver 8mo ago
        A few years ago I would have (and did) considered the notion that manually programming was about to turn into a quaint relic and computers would be writing 90%+ of code preposterous. Once an alternative becomes obviously superior things can change very fast.
      - xnx 8mo ago
        Right, I was pointing out that at some point there was probably a horse-rider constituency as there is a driver constituency today.
- rootusrootus 8mo ago
  Did it? I did a cursory search and it seems like many places still permit horse-drawn carriages, just not on limited access highways. Sometimes with fairly onerous licensing and operational requirements (speed limits, poo management, etc), but still allowed.
deleted 8mo ago
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Jblx2 8mo ago

Is that: - I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 100% of roads in the lifetime of anyone alive today. or - I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 10% of roads... ...or is there some other percentage to qualify this? I guess I wouldn't expect there to be a decree that makes it happen all at once for a country. Especially a large country like the U.S.. More like, some really dense city will decide to make a tiny core autonomous vehicles only, and then some other cities also do years later. And then maybe it expands to something larger than just the core after 5 or 10 years. And so on...

rootusrootus 8mo ago
That is a fair point, since it is fairly safe to make "this absolute claim will never happen." And the person I replied to did say 'exclusively', which implies 100% elimination of human drivers. But still, I appreciate your nuance. And in the spirit of that nuance, I will revise my statement slightly. I think it is entirely possible we will eliminate drivers on 10% of roads. We have rules that are analogous to that already with limited access highways. Though I would rate this still as unlikely, since such roads only make up just over 1% of all the roads in the US as it is. Not sure what the % is for other countries, probably less. > some really dense city will decide to make a tiny core autonomous vehicles only Agree 100%, this kind of thing I do expect to see happen. We already have exclusions for cars altogether in favor of pedestrians, so the precedent is set.

xnx 8mo ago

> I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime It basically happened for horses.

anigbrowl 8mo ago
Horses don't vote.
- xnx 8mo ago
  Neither do cars?
  - anigbrowl 8mo ago
    Drivers, however, absolutely do. And I do not see enough drivers voting away their own ability to drive any time soon.
    - semiquaver 8mo ago
      A few years ago I would have (and did) considered the notion that manually programming was about to turn into a quaint relic and computers would be writing 90%+ of code preposterous. Once an alternative becomes obviously superior things can change very fast.
    - xnx 8mo ago
      Right, I was pointing out that at some point there was probably a horse-rider constituency as there is a driver constituency today.
rootusrootus 8mo ago
Did it? I did a cursory search and it seems like many places still permit horse-drawn carriages, just not on limited access highways. Sometimes with fairly onerous licensing and operational requirements (speed limits, poo management, etc), but still allowed.

deleted 8mo ago

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