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But will PCs stay cheap? If more and more people find it simpler and easier to satisfy their computing needs with devices like smartphones and tablets, there c

by fpgeek 14y ago

But will PCs stay cheap? If more and more people find it simpler and easier to satisfy their computing needs with devices like smartphones and tablets, there could easily come a point where economies of scale start working against PCs, accelerating a decline into a niche "producer" device. Personally, I think hybrid devices are likely to prevent that because they'll be a better fit for the many users who primarily consume but still occasionally produce, but that's a separate argument.

jseliger 14y ago
Could be. But right now it's possible to get a very decent setup for basic tasks for $200 - $300, monitor and all, and it's possible to buy used but functional PCs for $50 - $200 from Craigslist and eBay. I'm not about to trade in my iMac for a $300 Dell, but if I was more financially constrained, I wouldn't have an iMac. I don't have and wouldn't have an iPad. I'd probably have a $300 Dell.
zanny 14y ago
As long as Google exists, commodity hardware has a place on a massive scale that can somewhat eclipse any decline in consumer sales by how datacenters are using this stuff in massive deployments for server farms. Also consider the ingredients of the modern PC. The chipsets and motherboards are Intel / AMD, and Intel won't slow down since it basically owns business workstations. AMD is kind of stuck. The motherboard makers already have entire product lines of extremely niche products (see the x79 chipset) and sata disks / DDR memory are used in mobile devices, just at different form factors. They still need wireless / usb controllers, maybe the cases get more expensive? Point is, the two markets are very tightly coupled, and there is a diverse enough pc component market that consumer demand dropping doesn't phase it too much. Worst case scenario is less R&D goes into high end parts since there is less demand for them, which is already happening (look at Ivy Bridge, barely upped performance but cut power consumption a ton).
- epsylon 14y ago
  I think you are exaggerating Google's impact on commodity hardware — or even the impact of the whole data-center-on-commodity-hardware trend. Estimates put Google's server count around the million mark [1]. Worldwide PC sales are estimated about 320 millions, per year, and more than 1.5 billions PC are estimated to be in use currently [2]. [1] http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-got-the-most-web-servers/ http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-... [2] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444657804578048981461803220.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044465780457804... and http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm
6ren 14y ago
You are right that the components used in phones/tablets could (will) become cheaper due to scale. But the effect will be the same as when laptops drove 3.5" drives - desktops started using those components. It's the same as when workstations were displaced by PCs (and Sun died): PCs are now used as workstations (also, used as minicomputers, servers, mainframes). The usage won't disappear, because keyboards and desks remain useful. Soon, "desktops" will be displayed by devices that look like phones, but are used like desktops. Some will double as phones; some will be dedicated (like Apple TV); some will be desktops, like those USB computers. It's already begun. As a comparison, by one benchmark, the iPhone 5 is 3x as powerful of the first eeePC 701 - which I use as a desktop, with HD screen, full keyboard and mouse.

by fpgeek 14y ago

jseliger 14y ago

Could be. But right now it's possible to get a very decent setup for basic tasks for $200 - $300, monitor and all, and it's possible to buy used but functional PCs for $50 - $200 from Craigslist and eBay. I'm not about to trade in my iMac for a $300 Dell, but if I was more financially constrained, I wouldn't have an iMac. I don't have and wouldn't have an iPad. I'd probably have a $300 Dell.

zanny 14y ago

As long as Google exists, commodity hardware has a place on a massive scale that can somewhat eclipse any decline in consumer sales by how datacenters are using this stuff in massive deployments for server farms. Also consider the ingredients of the modern PC. The chipsets and motherboards are Intel / AMD, and Intel won't slow down since it basically owns business workstations. AMD is kind of stuck. The motherboard makers already have entire product lines of extremely niche products (see the x79 chipset) and sata disks / DDR memory are used in mobile devices, just at different form factors. They still need wireless / usb controllers, maybe the cases get more expensive? Point is, the two markets are very tightly coupled, and there is a diverse enough pc component market that consumer demand dropping doesn't phase it too much. Worst case scenario is less R&D goes into high end parts since there is less demand for them, which is already happening (look at Ivy Bridge, barely upped performance but cut power consumption a ton).

epsylon 14y ago
I think you are exaggerating Google's impact on commodity hardware — or even the impact of the whole data-center-on-commodity-hardware trend. Estimates put Google's server count around the million mark [1]. Worldwide PC sales are estimated about 320 millions, per year, and more than 1.5 billions PC are estimated to be in use currently [2]. [1] http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-got-the-most-web-servers/ http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/05/14/whos-... [2] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444657804578048981461803220.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044465780457804... and http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm

6ren 14y ago

You are right that the components used in phones/tablets could (will) become cheaper due to scale. But the effect will be the same as when laptops drove 3.5" drives - desktops started using those components. It's the same as when workstations were displaced by PCs (and Sun died): PCs are now used as workstations (also, used as minicomputers, servers, mainframes). The usage won't disappear, because keyboards and desks remain useful. Soon, "desktops" will be displayed by devices that look like phones, but are used like desktops. Some will double as phones; some will be dedicated (like Apple TV); some will be desktops, like those USB computers. It's already begun. As a comparison, by one benchmark, the iPhone 5 is 3x as powerful of the first eeePC 701 - which I use as a desktop, with HD screen, full keyboard and mouse.