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Yeah its absurd. As a Tesla driver, I have to say the autopilot model really does feel like what someone who's never driven a car before thinks it's like. Usin
by verelo 8mo ago
Yeah its absurd. As a Tesla driver, I have to say the autopilot model really does feel like what someone who's never driven a car before thinks it's like.
Using vision only is so ignorant of what driving is all about: sound, vibration, vision, heat, cold...these are all clues on road condition. If the car isn't feeling all these things as part of the model, you're handicapping it. In a brilliant way Lidar is the missing piece of information a car needs without relying on multiple sensors, it's probably superior to what a human can do, where as vision only is clearly inferior.
- ASalazarMX 8mo agoMaybe vision-only can work with much better cameras, with a wider spectrum (so they can see thru fog, for example), and self-cleaning/zero upkeep (so you don't have to pull over to wipe a speck of mud from them). Nevertheless, LIDAR still seems like the best choice overall.
- smallmancontrov 8mo agoThe inputs to FSD are: 7 cameras x 36fps x 5Mpx x 30s 48kHz audio Nav maps and route for next few miles 100Hz kinematics (speed, IMU, odometry, etc) Source: https://youtu.be/LFh9GAzHg1c?t=571 https://youtu.be/LFh9GAzHg1c?t=571
- ambicapter 8mo agoSo if they’re already “fusioning” all these things, why would LIDAR be any different?
- smallmancontrov 8mo agoTesla went nothing-but-nets (making fusion easy) and Chinese LIDAR became cheap around 2023, but monocular depth estimation was spectacularly good by 2021. By the time unit cost and integration effort came down, LIDAR had very little to offer a vision stack that no longer struggled to perceive the 3D world around it. Also, integration effort went down but it never disappeared. Meanwhile, opportunity cost skyrocketed when vision started working. Which layers would you carve resources away from to make room? How far back would you be willing to send the training + validation schedule to accommodate the change? If you saw your vision-only stack take off and blow past human performance on the march of 9s, would you land the plane just because red paint became available and you wanted to paint it red? I wouldn't completely discount ego either, but IMO there's more ego in the "LIDAR is necessary" case than the "LIDAR isn't necessary" at this point. FWIW, I used to be an outspoken LIDAR-head before 2021 when monocular depth estimation became a solved problem. It was funny watching everyone around me convert in the opposite direction at around the same time, probably driven by politics. I get it, I hate Elon's politics too, I just try very hard to keep his shitty behavior from influencing my opinions on machine learning.
- kanbara 8mo agodepth estimation is but one part of the problem— atmospheric and other conditions which blind optical visible spectrum sensors, lack of ambient (sunlight) and more. lidar simply outperforms (performs at all?) in these conditions. and provides hardware back distance maps, not software calculated estimation
- gibolt 8mo agoLidar fails worse than cameras in nearly all those conditions. There are plenty of videos of Tesla's vision-only approach seeing obstacles far before a human possibly could in all those conditions on real customer cars. Many are on the old hardware with far worse cameras
- Mawr 8mo agoInteresting, got any links? Sounds completely unbelievable, eyes are far superior to the shitty cameras Tesla has on their cars.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- jellojello 8mo agoYea.. not holding my breath on links to superman tesla cameras performing better than eyes
- dham 8mo agoThere's a misconception that what people see and what the camera sees is similar. Not true at all. One day when it's raining or foggy, have some record the driving, through the windshield. You'll be very surprised. Even what the camera displays on the screen isn't what it's actually "seeing".
- kranke155 8mo agoAlways thought the case was for sensor redundancy and data variety - the stuff that throws off monocular depth estimation might not throw off a lidar or radar.
- verelo 8mo agoBetter than I expected. So this was 3 days ago, is this for all previously models or is there a cut off date here?
- ChicagoDave 8mo agoFog, heavy rain, heavy snow, people running between cars or from an obstructed view… None of these technologies can ever be 100%, so we’re basically accepting a level of needless death. Musk has even shrugged off FSD related deaths as, “progress”.
- smallmancontrov 8mo agoHumans: 70 deaths in 7 billion miles FSD: 2 deaths in 7 billion miles Looks like FSD saves lives by a margin so fat it can probably survive most statistical games.
- hn_acc1 8mo agoIs that the official Tesla stat? I've heard of way more Tesla fatalities than that..
- ChicagoDave 8mo agoThis is absolutely a Musk defender. FSD and Tesla related deaths are much higher. https://www.tesladeaths.com/index-amp.html https://www.tesladeaths.com/index-amp.html
- smallmancontrov 8mo agoAutopilot is the shitty lane assist. FSD is the SOTA neural net. Your link agrees with me: > 2 fatalities involving the use of FSD
- ChicagoDave 8mo agoTesla sales are dead across the world. Cybertruck is a failure. Chinese EVs are demonstrably better. No one wants these crappy cars anymore.
- Fricken 8mo agoI don't know what he's on about. Here's a better list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tesla_Autopilot_crashes#:~:text=There%20have%20been%20multiple%20fatal,instance%2C%20the%20motorcyclist%20was%20killed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tesla_Autopilot_crashe...
- iknowstuff 8mo agoAutopilot hasn’t been updated in years and is nothing like FSD. FSD does use all of those cues.
- verelo 8mo agoI misspoke, i'm using Hardware 3 FSD.
- torginus 8mo agoI quickly googled Lidar limitations, and this article came up: https://www.yellowscan.com/knowledge/how-weather-really-affects-lidar-performance/ https://www.yellowscan.com/knowledge/how-weather-really-affe... Seeing how its by a lidar vendor, I don't think they're biased against it. It seems Lidar is not a panacea - it struggles with heavy rain, snow, much more than cameras do and is affected by cold weather or any contamination on the sensor. So lidar will only get you so far. I'm far more interested in mmwave radar, which while much worse in spatial resolution, isn't affected by light conditions, weather, can directly measure stuff on the thing its illuminating, like material properties, the speed its moving, the thickness. Fun fact: mmWave based presence sensors can measure your hearbeat, as the micro-movements show up as a frequency component. So I'd guess it would have a very good chance to detect a human. I'm pretty sure even with much more rudimentary processing, it'll be able to tell if its looking at a living being. By the way: what happened to the idea that self-driving cars will be able to talk to each other and combine each other's sensor data, so if there are multiple ones looking at the same spot, you'd get a much improved chance of not making a mistake.
- dham 8mo agoLidar is a moot point. You can't drive with just Lidar, no matter what. That's what people don't understand. The most common one I hear: "What if the camera gets mud on it", ok then you have to get out and clean it, or it needs an auto cleaning system.