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But the market is pricing in "some number of those shares will hit the market" already. Since it's equally likely that the market has anticipated too-high as to
by emmett 14y ago
But the market is pricing in "some number of those shares will hit the market" already. Since it's equally likely that the market has anticipated too-high as too-low, there's no reason to believe it will cause the stock to sink. It's equally likely it will rise.
- aston 14y agoI'd be very willing to bet against it rising. That would be nearly unprecedented.
- daveey 14y agoGood news! You can. Just short-sell the stock.
- emmett 14y agoAt what odds? This is an easy bet to make: just short-sell the stock or buy a put against it. Markets are anti-inductive. http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/