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The issue is its not a piece of predictable information - we don't know how many of those 250M shares will actually hit the market, as it is unknown what % of e
by kitcar 14y ago
The issue is its not a piece of predictable information - we don't know how many of those 250M shares will actually hit the market, as it is unknown what % of employees will sell versus hold. The market knows the event will occur, but does not know the size, and therefore significance, of the event as a result.
- emmett 14y agoBut the market is pricing in "some number of those shares will hit the market" already. Since it's equally likely that the market has anticipated too-high as too-low, there's no reason to believe it will cause the stock to sink. It's equally likely it will rise.
- aston 14y agoI'd be very willing to bet against it rising. That would be nearly unprecedented.
- daveey 14y agoGood news! You can. Just short-sell the stock.
- emmett 14y agoAt what odds? This is an easy bet to make: just short-sell the stock or buy a put against it. Markets are anti-inductive. http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/