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Do software engineers here feel threatened by this? I certainly am. I'm surprised that this topic is almost entirely missing in these threads.

ReptileMan 8mo ago
Jevons paradox hints that the situation is not as bleak as it sounds.
- svachalek 8mo ago
  I've been in this profession for 32 years now and this is my experience. Every time coding gets easier or cheaper, the response is first to lay off developers but quickly the demand for more software spikes and they need everyone back and more than ever. When we achieve true AGI we're truly cooked, but it won't just be software developers by definition of AGI, it will be everyone else too. But the last people in the building before they turn the lights out for good will be the software developers.
- anthonypasq 8mo ago
  i think i fundamentally agree that the demand for code is essentially infinite. Code has just been notoriously expensive and therefore it could only de deployed towards the most economically efficient activities. this is now changing.
worldsavior 8mo ago
No. AI does not work well enough, you still need a person to look on it and CODE. It probably never will, until AGI which probably also in my opinion will never come.
- dude250711 8mo ago
  It's a super-special AI tier that can replace developers and other grunts, yet somehow cannot replace managers and C-suite. It can only replace whoever is not writing a fat cheque to it.
OsrsNeedsf2P 8mo ago
I would feel threatened if I didn't invest in learning how to best use AI
vatsachak 8mo ago
AI is mostly garbage at creating useful abstractions. I'd feel threatened if I was a competitive programmer or IMO kid
- manmal 8mo ago
  Tell me you haven’t used codex-xhigh without telling me you haven’t used it. It’s bad at overall architecture and big picture. But not at useful abstractions.
llmslave 8mo ago
theres alot of denial, and people that havent taken a serious look at the ai models
AstroBen 8mo ago
No. It turns into a complete mess without someone that knows what they're doing to steer it. It's an upgrade to autocomplete
- energy123 8mo ago
  Unless you're retiring in less than 5 years this is extremely short sighted.
  - lurking_swe 8mo ago
    It’s also silly to try predicting the future 5 years from now, IMO. Historically progress is very unpredictable. It often plateaus when you least expect it. It’s good to be cautious and not in denial, but i usually ignore people who talk so authoritatively about the future. It’s just a waste of time. Everyone thinks they are right. My recommendation is have a very generous emergency fund and do your best to be effective at work. That’s the only thing you can control and the only thing that matters.
    - xvector 8mo ago
      Or just move into technical leadership or management/executive permissions. In any case, everyone should be riding the AI wave! Anyone doing so should have enough to retire five years from now.
  - AstroBen 8mo ago
    What would things look like to make someone with currently ~10 years of experience unemployable? It's possible the job might change drastically, but I'm struggling to think of any scenario that doesn't also put most white collar professions out of work alongside me, and I don't think that's worth worrying about
    - therealdrag0 8mo ago
      Unemployable is a charged word. A lot of outdated professions still have professionals. There are still professional horse drawn carriages. If the AI performance gains are 50% improvement, and companies decide they rather cut costs and pocket the difference, could be due to many factors, that leaves millions out of a job. And those performance gains are coming for many white collar jobs. I guess your premise is mass unemployment is not worth worrying about, so okay then. Marginal changes in productivity can make huge impacts to industries employment rates.
erfburfl 8mo ago
[dead]
epolanski 8mo ago
Software developers should. Software engineers shouldn't. My experience is that most developers have little to no understanding about engineering at all: meaning weighting pros and cons, understanding the requirements thoroughly, having a business oriented mindset. Instead they think engineering is about coding practices and technologies to write better code. That's because they focus on the code, the craft, not money.
- netdevphoenix 8mo ago
  You should wonder whether any of those devs will train themselves to become engineers and whether the supply of engineers will be lower than the demand for them. Because if any of them become true, you will likely struggle to keep your employee stats relatively the same (ie you will struggle in very specific ways) unless you are the kind of person who doesn't need to interview to land a gig at a top 10 tech company.

ReptileMan 8mo ago

Jevons paradox hints that the situation is not as bleak as it sounds.

svachalek 8mo ago
I've been in this profession for 32 years now and this is my experience. Every time coding gets easier or cheaper, the response is first to lay off developers but quickly the demand for more software spikes and they need everyone back and more than ever. When we achieve true AGI we're truly cooked, but it won't just be software developers by definition of AGI, it will be everyone else too. But the last people in the building before they turn the lights out for good will be the software developers.
anthonypasq 8mo ago
i think i fundamentally agree that the demand for code is essentially infinite. Code has just been notoriously expensive and therefore it could only de deployed towards the most economically efficient activities. this is now changing.

worldsavior 8mo ago

No. AI does not work well enough, you still need a person to look on it and CODE. It probably never will, until AGI which probably also in my opinion will never come.

dude250711 8mo ago
It's a super-special AI tier that can replace developers and other grunts, yet somehow cannot replace managers and C-suite. It can only replace whoever is not writing a fat cheque to it.

OsrsNeedsf2P 8mo ago

I would feel threatened if I didn't invest in learning how to best use AI

vatsachak 8mo ago

AI is mostly garbage at creating useful abstractions. I'd feel threatened if I was a competitive programmer or IMO kid

manmal 8mo ago
Tell me you haven’t used codex-xhigh without telling me you haven’t used it. It’s bad at overall architecture and big picture. But not at useful abstractions.

llmslave 8mo ago

theres alot of denial, and people that havent taken a serious look at the ai models

AstroBen 8mo ago

No. It turns into a complete mess without someone that knows what they're doing to steer it. It's an upgrade to autocomplete

energy123 8mo ago
Unless you're retiring in less than 5 years this is extremely short sighted.
- lurking_swe 8mo ago
  It’s also silly to try predicting the future 5 years from now, IMO. Historically progress is very unpredictable. It often plateaus when you least expect it. It’s good to be cautious and not in denial, but i usually ignore people who talk so authoritatively about the future. It’s just a waste of time. Everyone thinks they are right. My recommendation is have a very generous emergency fund and do your best to be effective at work. That’s the only thing you can control and the only thing that matters.
  - xvector 8mo ago
    Or just move into technical leadership or management/executive permissions. In any case, everyone should be riding the AI wave! Anyone doing so should have enough to retire five years from now.
- AstroBen 8mo ago
  What would things look like to make someone with currently ~10 years of experience unemployable? It's possible the job might change drastically, but I'm struggling to think of any scenario that doesn't also put most white collar professions out of work alongside me, and I don't think that's worth worrying about
  - therealdrag0 8mo ago
    Unemployable is a charged word. A lot of outdated professions still have professionals. There are still professional horse drawn carriages. If the AI performance gains are 50% improvement, and companies decide they rather cut costs and pocket the difference, could be due to many factors, that leaves millions out of a job. And those performance gains are coming for many white collar jobs. I guess your premise is mass unemployment is not worth worrying about, so okay then. Marginal changes in productivity can make huge impacts to industries employment rates.

erfburfl 8mo ago

[dead]

epolanski 8mo ago

Software developers should. Software engineers shouldn't. My experience is that most developers have little to no understanding about engineering at all: meaning weighting pros and cons, understanding the requirements thoroughly, having a business oriented mindset. Instead they think engineering is about coding practices and technologies to write better code. That's because they focus on the code, the craft, not money.

netdevphoenix 8mo ago
You should wonder whether any of those devs will train themselves to become engineers and whether the supply of engineers will be lower than the demand for them. Because if any of them become true, you will likely struggle to keep your employee stats relatively the same (ie you will struggle in very specific ways) unless you are the kind of person who doesn't need to interview to land a gig at a top 10 tech company.