3 ms·
Exponential growth may look like a very slow increase at first, but it's still exponential growth.
by quinncom 8mo ago
Exponential growth may look like a very slow increase at first, but it's still exponential growth.
- janalsncm 8mo agoSigmoids may look like exponential growth at first, until they saturate. Early growth alone cannot distinguish between them.
- naasking 8mo agoIntelligence must be sigmoid of course, but it may not saturate until well past human intelligence.
- janalsncm 8mo agoIntelligence might be more like an optimization problem, fitting inputs to optimal outputs. Sometimes reality is simply too chaotic to model precisely so there is a limit to how good that optimization can be. It would be like distance to the top of a mountain. Even if someone is 10x closer, they could still only be within arms reach.
- gf000 8mo agoIf it's exponential growth. It may just as well be some slow growth and continue to be so.
- Garlef 8mo agoOn the other hand: Perception of change might not be linear but logarithmic. (= it might take an order of magnitude of improvements to be perceived as a substantial upgrade) So the perceived rate of change might be linear. It's definitely true for some things such as wealth: - $2000 is a lot of you have $1000. - It's a substantial improvement of you have $10000. - It's not a lot you have $1m - It does not matter if you have $1b