4 ms·

I remember when AI labs coordinated so they didn't push major announcements on the same day to avoid cannibalizing each other. Now we have AI labs pushing major

I remember when AI labs coordinated so they didn't push major announcements on the same day to avoid cannibalizing each other. Now we have AI labs pushing major announcements within 30 minutes.

crorella 9mo ago
The thrill of competition
zozbot234 9mo ago
They're also coordinating around Chinese New Year to compete with new releases of the major open/local models.
- DonHopkins 9mo ago
  Year of the Pelican!
  - hoeoek 9mo ago
    simonw?
  - iujasdkjfasf 9mo ago
    [dead]
IhateAI 9mo ago
[flagged]
observationist 9mo ago
The labs have fully embraced the cutthroat competition, the arms race has fully shed the civilized facade of beneficient mutual cooperation. Dirty tricks and underhanded tactics will happen - I think Demis isn't savvy in this domain, but might end up stomping out the competition on pure performance. Elon, Sam, and Dario know how to fight ugly and do the nasty political boardroom crap. 26 is gonna be a very dramatic year, lots of cinematic potential for the eventual AI biopics.
- manquer 9mo ago
  >civilized facade of mutual cooperation >Dirty tricks and underhanded tactics As long the tactics are legal ( i.e. not corporate espionage, bribes etc), the no holds barred full free market competition is the best thing for the market and the consumers.
  - thethimble 9mo ago
    The consumers are getting huge wins. Model costs continue to collapse while capability improves. Competition is fantastic.
    - mrandish 9mo ago
      > The consumers are getting huge wins. However, the investors currently subsidizing those wins to below cost may be getting huge losses.
      - credit_guy 9mo ago
        Yes, but that's the nature of the game, and they know it.
    - doom2 9mo ago
      > Model costs continue to collapse And yet RAM prices are still sky high. Game consoles are getting more expensive, not cheaper, as a result. When will competition benefit those consumers? Or consumers of desktop RAM?
      - nasreddin 9mo ago
        The free market has simply decided these consumers are not as relevant as the others.
        niek_pas 9mo ago
        Maybe the free market is wrong.
tedsanders 9mo ago
This goes way back. When OpenAI launched GPT-4 in 2023, both Anthropic and Google lined up counter launches (Claude and Magic Wand) right before OpenAI's standard 10am launch time.
manquer 9mo ago
Wouldn't that be illegal ? i.e. cartel to collude like that ?
- avaer 9mo ago
  You were downvoted but I don't understand why. This is the purpose/spirit of antitrust law [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_antitrust_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_antitrust_law
  - manquer 9mo ago
    I have long since given up trying to understand voting patterns in HN :) --- Sadly it was the core of anti-trust law, since 1970s things have changed. The predominant view today (i.e. Chicago School view) in both judiciary and executive are influenced by Justice Bork's ideas that consumer benefit being the deciding factor over company's actions. Consumer benefits becomes opinions of projections by either side of a case about the future, whereas company actions like collusion, pricing fixing or M&A are hard facts with strong evidence. Today it is all vibes on how the courts (or executive) feel . So now we have Government sanctioned cartels like in Aviation Alliances [1] that is basically based on convoluted catch-22-esque reasoning because it favors strategic goals even though it would be a violation of the letter/spirit of the law. [1] https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/aviation-policy/dot-aviation-antitrust-immunity-cases https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/aviation-policy...
cedws 9mo ago
I wish they’d just stop pretending to care about safety, other than a few researchers at the top they care about safety only as long as they aren’t losing ground to the competition. Game theory guarantees the AI labs will do what it takes to ensure survival. Only regulation can enforce the limits, self policing won’t work when money is involved.
- thethimble 9mo ago
  As long as China continues to blitz forward, regulation is a direct path to losing.
  - pixl97 9mo ago
    You mean all paths are direct paths to losing.
  - cedws 9mo ago
    Define "losing." Europe is prematurely regarded as having lost the AI race. And yet a large portion of Europe live higher quality lives compared to their American counterparts, live longer, and don't have to worry about an elected orange unleashing brutality on them.
    - thethimble 9mo ago
      If the world is built on AI infrastructure (models, compute, etc.) that is controlled by the CCP then the west has effectively lost. This may lead to better life outcomes, but if the west doesn't control the whole stack then they have lost their sovereignty. This is already playing out today as Europe is dependent on the US for critical tech infrastructure (cloud, mail, messaging, social media, AI, etc). There's no home grown European alternatives because Europe has failed to create an economic environment to assure its technical sovereignty.
      - deleted 9mo ago
        [deleted]
    - 9mo ago
sathish316 9mo ago
AI commoditized to the point where Nash Equilibrium and 35 minutes between announcements matter :)

I remember when AI labs coordinated so they didn't push major announcements on the same day to avoid cannibalizing each other. Now we have AI labs pushing major announcements within 30 minutes.

crorella 9mo ago

The thrill of competition

zozbot234 9mo ago

They're also coordinating around Chinese New Year to compete with new releases of the major open/local models.

DonHopkins 9mo ago
Year of the Pelican!
- hoeoek 9mo ago
  simonw?
- iujasdkjfasf 9mo ago
  [dead]

IhateAI 9mo ago

[flagged]

observationist 9mo ago

The labs have fully embraced the cutthroat competition, the arms race has fully shed the civilized facade of beneficient mutual cooperation. Dirty tricks and underhanded tactics will happen - I think Demis isn't savvy in this domain, but might end up stomping out the competition on pure performance. Elon, Sam, and Dario know how to fight ugly and do the nasty political boardroom crap. 26 is gonna be a very dramatic year, lots of cinematic potential for the eventual AI biopics.

manquer 9mo ago
>civilized facade of mutual cooperation >Dirty tricks and underhanded tactics As long the tactics are legal ( i.e. not corporate espionage, bribes etc), the no holds barred full free market competition is the best thing for the market and the consumers.
- thethimble 9mo ago
  The consumers are getting huge wins. Model costs continue to collapse while capability improves. Competition is fantastic.
  - mrandish 9mo ago
    > The consumers are getting huge wins. However, the investors currently subsidizing those wins to below cost may be getting huge losses.
    - credit_guy 9mo ago
      Yes, but that's the nature of the game, and they know it.
  - doom2 9mo ago
    > Model costs continue to collapse And yet RAM prices are still sky high. Game consoles are getting more expensive, not cheaper, as a result. When will competition benefit those consumers? Or consumers of desktop RAM?
    - nasreddin 9mo ago
      The free market has simply decided these consumers are not as relevant as the others.
      - niek_pas 9mo ago
        Maybe the free market is wrong.

tedsanders 9mo ago

This goes way back. When OpenAI launched GPT-4 in 2023, both Anthropic and Google lined up counter launches (Claude and Magic Wand) right before OpenAI's standard 10am launch time.

manquer 9mo ago

Wouldn't that be illegal ? i.e. cartel to collude like that ?

avaer 9mo ago
You were downvoted but I don't understand why. This is the purpose/spirit of antitrust law [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_antitrust_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_antitrust_law
- manquer 9mo ago
  I have long since given up trying to understand voting patterns in HN :) --- Sadly it was the core of anti-trust law, since 1970s things have changed. The predominant view today (i.e. Chicago School view) in both judiciary and executive are influenced by Justice Bork's ideas that consumer benefit being the deciding factor over company's actions. Consumer benefits becomes opinions of projections by either side of a case about the future, whereas company actions like collusion, pricing fixing or M&A are hard facts with strong evidence. Today it is all vibes on how the courts (or executive) feel . So now we have Government sanctioned cartels like in Aviation Alliances [1] that is basically based on convoluted catch-22-esque reasoning because it favors strategic goals even though it would be a violation of the letter/spirit of the law. [1] https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/aviation-policy/dot-aviation-antitrust-immunity-cases https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/aviation-policy...

cedws 9mo ago

I wish they’d just stop pretending to care about safety, other than a few researchers at the top they care about safety only as long as they aren’t losing ground to the competition. Game theory guarantees the AI labs will do what it takes to ensure survival. Only regulation can enforce the limits, self policing won’t work when money is involved.

thethimble 9mo ago
As long as China continues to blitz forward, regulation is a direct path to losing.
- pixl97 9mo ago
  You mean all paths are direct paths to losing.
- cedws 9mo ago
  Define "losing." Europe is prematurely regarded as having lost the AI race. And yet a large portion of Europe live higher quality lives compared to their American counterparts, live longer, and don't have to worry about an elected orange unleashing brutality on them.
  - thethimble 9mo ago
    If the world is built on AI infrastructure (models, compute, etc.) that is controlled by the CCP then the west has effectively lost. This may lead to better life outcomes, but if the west doesn't control the whole stack then they have lost their sovereignty. This is already playing out today as Europe is dependent on the US for critical tech infrastructure (cloud, mail, messaging, social media, AI, etc). There's no home grown European alternatives because Europe has failed to create an economic environment to assure its technical sovereignty.
    - deleted 9mo ago
      [deleted]
  - 9mo ago

sathish316 9mo ago

AI commoditized to the point where Nash Equilibrium and 35 minutes between announcements matter :)