I may not be the best one to answer - I estimated 50% chance by last August. (I'm happy to be wrong.) A civil war you can flee once the shooting starts. (Pr

I may not be the best one to answer - I estimated 50% chance by last August. (I'm happy to be wrong.) A civil war you can flee once the shooting starts. (Probably. Maybe not if you are male and of military age. And the region you're in may close the border for whatever reason.) A coup is perhaps more likely to close the border, or at least to close it to "people like you" (if the side that doesn't like your kind is in charge). For that, I'd keep a close eye on this election, and up until the new Congress takes office, and maybe just after that. But if anything is going to happen, it will probably be before the new Congress is seated, because it's harder to create a veil of plausible grounds after that.