3 ms·

How many ICE agents is there? How many elections places are in USA? They would be spread so thinly that it would not even matter.

secretballot 9mo ago
A very high proportion of seats in any given election are, for "natural" or gerrymandering reasons, regarded as "safe seats" for their incumbent or (if the incumbent isn't running) party. These can all be ignored, unless you're just wanting to mess with a few polling places in safe Democratic districts to further a narrative of election chaos. For actually directly changing outcomes, they're irrelevant. A seat that is likely to flip is probably going to be a relatively close race. There are a bunch of public and private sources you can use, and databases both parties have already compiled, to find out which polling places are likely to be overwhelmingly visited by one party's voters over the other. A majority of one in the House, and a tie in the Senate, is all the White House needs to mostly prevent Congress from messing with them much (though larger margins are better). Combine all these facts and they have more than enough ICE agents to have a huge effect on the outcomes. They only need to show up in a handful of specific places to completely change the course of the next couple years.
jeffbee 9mo ago
I keep hearing this, but it doesn't make sense. This is electionist cope. The elections are decided in a handful of states with narrow margins. The ICE guys will be hanging around in urban neighborhoods with lots of minorities. Such as parts of Milwaukee and Detroit.
- mcphage 9mo ago
  > The ICE guys will be hanging around in urban neighborhoods with lots of minorities. Such as parts of Milwaukee and Detroit. Which they have been. How did that go in the special election a few days ago?
  - jeffbee 9mo ago
    There was a recent first-past-the-post statewide special election somewhere?
    - FreakLegion 9mo ago
      Taylor Rehmet just won a Texas senate seat by 14%. It was a 31% swing from the results in that district in the 2024 elections.
      - jeffbee 9mo ago
        As I said to the other guy, the way that Trump wants to disrupt elections is not applicable to district elections.
        FreakLegion 9mo ago
        You said: > This is electionist cope. The elections are decided in a handful of states with narrow margins. And the other guy's point was that the backlash against Trump is significant enough that this time around elections may not be decided that way. As evidence: A Texas district that was Republican for 25 years, that voted Republican by a 17% margin in November 2024, just elected a Democrat by 14% (after he'd already won by 12% in November 2025). This is separate from the obvious fact that House seats are decided in district elections and are all up for grabs this year.
    - mcphage 9mo ago
      State house elections, 2 of them in Minnesota: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/01/27/specials-elections-for-minnesota-house-district-47a-and-64a-favor-dfl-could-restore-tie https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/01/27/specials-elections-...
      - jeffbee 9mo ago
        Those aren't the kinds of elections that can be interfered with in the way I suggested. Those are district elections.
SilverElfin 9mo ago
They’re recruiting aggressively right now, and ICE received over 200K applications per some statement they put out. So they’ll probably be at 40K+ agents by mid-year. Note that while there are thousands of election places, there are only a small number of states that are deciders for the elections, since others are solidly blue or red. And in those states, there are only a handful of blue cities for Trump/GOP to disrupt. And even within those cities, it’s easy to figure out which areas are likely voting one way or the other. ICE already has far more agents than every local police force in every one of those locations. They would overwhelm everyone if they do this.

secretballot 9mo ago

A very high proportion of seats in any given election are, for "natural" or gerrymandering reasons, regarded as "safe seats" for their incumbent or (if the incumbent isn't running) party. These can all be ignored, unless you're just wanting to mess with a few polling places in safe Democratic districts to further a narrative of election chaos. For actually directly changing outcomes, they're irrelevant. A seat that is likely to flip is probably going to be a relatively close race. There are a bunch of public and private sources you can use, and databases both parties have already compiled, to find out which polling places are likely to be overwhelmingly visited by one party's voters over the other. A majority of one in the House, and a tie in the Senate, is all the White House needs to mostly prevent Congress from messing with them much (though larger margins are better). Combine all these facts and they have more than enough ICE agents to have a huge effect on the outcomes. They only need to show up in a handful of specific places to completely change the course of the next couple years.

jeffbee 9mo ago

I keep hearing this, but it doesn't make sense. This is electionist cope. The elections are decided in a handful of states with narrow margins. The ICE guys will be hanging around in urban neighborhoods with lots of minorities. Such as parts of Milwaukee and Detroit.

mcphage 9mo ago
> The ICE guys will be hanging around in urban neighborhoods with lots of minorities. Such as parts of Milwaukee and Detroit. Which they have been. How did that go in the special election a few days ago?
- jeffbee 9mo ago
  There was a recent first-past-the-post statewide special election somewhere?
  - FreakLegion 9mo ago
    Taylor Rehmet just won a Texas senate seat by 14%. It was a 31% swing from the results in that district in the 2024 elections.
    - jeffbee 9mo ago
      As I said to the other guy, the way that Trump wants to disrupt elections is not applicable to district elections.
      - FreakLegion 9mo ago
        You said: > This is electionist cope. The elections are decided in a handful of states with narrow margins. And the other guy's point was that the backlash against Trump is significant enough that this time around elections may not be decided that way. As evidence: A Texas district that was Republican for 25 years, that voted Republican by a 17% margin in November 2024, just elected a Democrat by 14% (after he'd already won by 12% in November 2025). This is separate from the obvious fact that House seats are decided in district elections and are all up for grabs this year.
  - mcphage 9mo ago
    State house elections, 2 of them in Minnesota: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/01/27/specials-elections-for-minnesota-house-district-47a-and-64a-favor-dfl-could-restore-tie https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/01/27/specials-elections-...
    - jeffbee 9mo ago
      Those aren't the kinds of elections that can be interfered with in the way I suggested. Those are district elections.

SilverElfin 9mo ago

They’re recruiting aggressively right now, and ICE received over 200K applications per some statement they put out. So they’ll probably be at 40K+ agents by mid-year. Note that while there are thousands of election places, there are only a small number of states that are deciders for the elections, since others are solidly blue or red. And in those states, there are only a handful of blue cities for Trump/GOP to disrupt. And even within those cities, it’s easy to figure out which areas are likely voting one way or the other. ICE already has far more agents than every local police force in every one of those locations. They would overwhelm everyone if they do this.