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That's because the loudest voices don't really get how the technology or the science works. They just know how to shout persuasively. I think AI is about to do

That's because the loudest voices don't really get how the technology or the science works. They just know how to shout persuasively. I think AI is about to do the same thing to pair programming that full self-driving has done for driving. It will be a long time before it's perfect but it's already useful. I also think someone is going to make a Blockbuster quality movie with AI within a couple years and there will be much fretting of the brows rather than seeing the opportunity to improve the tooling here. But I'll make a more precise prediction for 2026. Through continual learning and other tricks that emerge throughout the year, LLMs will become more personalized with longer memories, continuing to make them even more of a killer consumer product than they already are. I just see too many people conversing with them right now to believe otherwise.

joquarky 9mo ago
> That's because the loudest voices don't really get how the technology or the science works. They just know how to shout persuasively. These people have taken over the industry in the past 10 years. They don't care anything about the tech or product quality. They talk smooth, loud, and fast so the leaders overlook their incompetence while creating a burden for the rest of the team. I had a spectacular burnout a few years ago because of these brogrammers and now I have to compete with them in what feels like a red queen's race where social skills are becoming far more important than technical skills to land a job. I'm tired.
- fragmede 9mo ago
  Social skills to get my computer to do what I want still blows my mind. Or having to talk back to it. Claude said it couldn't do something, and the way around that was too tell it "yes you can". What a weird future we live in.
  - skydhash 9mo ago
    What social skills? You can write in broken English and still have good results. It’s a statistical language , not a living being. No need for empathy, pleading, accusing, or manipulating. It transforms languages, any mapping from text to action was implemented by someone. And it would be way easier to have such mapping directly available.
    - direwolf20 9mo ago
      It transforms languages into the most likely human response. Humans are more likely to respond to rudeness with rejection.
  - mananaysiempre 9mo ago
    Claude said it couldn't do something, and the way around that was too tell it "yes you can". >kill dragon With what? Your bare hands? >yes Congratulations! You have just vanquished a dragon with your bare hands! (Unbelievable, isn't it?)
    - kridsdale3 9mo ago
      \> kill dragon -bash: kill: dragon: arguments must be process or job IDs \> sudo kill dragon -bash: Congratulations! You have just vanquished a dragon with your bare hands!
      - polynomial 9mo ago
        So, passwordless sudo, got it.
- direwolf20 9mo ago
  These people have taken over every industry and society at large.
- neumann 9mo ago
  I hear you. It's so prevalent now it is tiring. And LLMs has given them the last delusion that they are now also 'technical'.
adastra22 9mo ago
> I think AI is about to do the same thing to pair programming that full self-driving has done for driving. Approximately nothing?
- LogicFailsMe 9mo ago
  So if you're close to retirement, that curmudgeon schtick might work out for you. But otherwise, be prepared to learn some new things or you're going to go through a few things.
  - adastra22 9mo ago
    The point is that right now self driving cars hasn’t been very transformative. It might be, in future tense. But right now if your world has been turned upside down by self driving, you’re very much living in a bubble.
    - LogicFailsMe 9mo ago
      Or you own a later model car with blind spot detection, automatic Lane keeping, self parking and a bunch of other AI/ML safety features that invisibly lower the cognitive load of driving. The real bubble is the United States as the global luddite with nukes. The rest of the world is continuing apace on every front while we desperately try to return to the previous century.
      - wiml 9mo ago
        That's not "full self driving" by any stretch of the imagination. Where are these goalposts again?
        LogicFailsMe 8mo ago
        My supposed goal posts are whether AI is useful or not, not the brain farts of libertooniian nut jobs who had covid one too many times and destroyed their own high level mental function. I mean when the chief current libertoonian talking points are we should flood the internet with AI generated child porn to reduce pedophilia, that Greta Thunberg is the Antichrist, or that the most important decision your daughter faces right now is whether she should study to be an engineer or become a sex worker, they have exited the room of serious conversation and entered the insane asylum across the board. I wish we could ignore them but they have the Zeitgeist. Stupid Zeitgeist
borroka 9mo ago
I do not doubt that AI and AI-powered and -native applications will become part of the fabric of our personal and professional lives. What I don't understand is why, outside of "because I can", people need to automate parts of life I did not know the existence of. - Why, outside of edge cases, do people have to automate the payment of bills beyond the automatic cc processing? - How many times a month do they have to set up their barber appointment? It seems to me that the applications of Clawd and similar tools either automate trivial stuff or work on actions and circumstances that should not be there. As an example, the other day I had a doctor visit, and between filling forms online, filling other forms online, confirming three times I would have been there and that I filled the online forms, driving to the doctor's office, and waiting, I probably spent 2 hours of my time (the visit was 2 months after I asked for it, by the way). The visit lasted 5-7 minutes: the doctor did not have a look at the forms I filled out beforehand, and barely listened to what I was telling him during the visit. I worry that, since "AI" will do it, there will be more forms to be filled that nobody will read, more forms to be filled to confirm that AI or me or a guardian filled the forms, and longer wait times because AI will bombard our neurons with some entertainment. But what I want is a visit with a doctor who listens to me, they are not in a rush, and have my problem solved. If AI helps, it's great, but I don't want busy work done by AI, I don't want, because it is not needed, busy work at all.
- kridsdale3 9mo ago
  Sounds like Brazil.
  - borroka 9mo ago
    Sunny coastal California
- LogicFailsMe 9mo ago
  I would love an AI to curate my feed to transition from enragement equals engagement to pure enchantment feeding me things it decides I would enjoy. And I think that's completely within the abilities of current models. It's just that it's less profitable than driving me into an endless doom scroll loop of despair. And that's just off the top of my head. AI is neither good or evil, but we've made some pretty poor choices deploying it.

joquarky 9mo ago

> That's because the loudest voices don't really get how the technology or the science works. They just know how to shout persuasively. These people have taken over the industry in the past 10 years. They don't care anything about the tech or product quality. They talk smooth, loud, and fast so the leaders overlook their incompetence while creating a burden for the rest of the team. I had a spectacular burnout a few years ago because of these brogrammers and now I have to compete with them in what feels like a red queen's race where social skills are becoming far more important than technical skills to land a job. I'm tired.

fragmede 9mo ago
Social skills to get my computer to do what I want still blows my mind. Or having to talk back to it. Claude said it couldn't do something, and the way around that was too tell it "yes you can". What a weird future we live in.
- skydhash 9mo ago
  What social skills? You can write in broken English and still have good results. It’s a statistical language , not a living being. No need for empathy, pleading, accusing, or manipulating. It transforms languages, any mapping from text to action was implemented by someone. And it would be way easier to have such mapping directly available.
  - direwolf20 9mo ago
    It transforms languages into the most likely human response. Humans are more likely to respond to rudeness with rejection.
- mananaysiempre 9mo ago
  Claude said it couldn't do something, and the way around that was too tell it "yes you can". >kill dragon With what? Your bare hands? >yes Congratulations! You have just vanquished a dragon with your bare hands! (Unbelievable, isn't it?)
  - kridsdale3 9mo ago
    \> kill dragon -bash: kill: dragon: arguments must be process or job IDs \> sudo kill dragon -bash: Congratulations! You have just vanquished a dragon with your bare hands!
    - polynomial 9mo ago
      So, passwordless sudo, got it.
direwolf20 9mo ago
These people have taken over every industry and society at large.
neumann 9mo ago
I hear you. It's so prevalent now it is tiring. And LLMs has given them the last delusion that they are now also 'technical'.

adastra22 9mo ago

> I think AI is about to do the same thing to pair programming that full self-driving has done for driving. Approximately nothing?

LogicFailsMe 9mo ago
So if you're close to retirement, that curmudgeon schtick might work out for you. But otherwise, be prepared to learn some new things or you're going to go through a few things.
- adastra22 9mo ago
  The point is that right now self driving cars hasn’t been very transformative. It might be, in future tense. But right now if your world has been turned upside down by self driving, you’re very much living in a bubble.
  - LogicFailsMe 9mo ago
    Or you own a later model car with blind spot detection, automatic Lane keeping, self parking and a bunch of other AI/ML safety features that invisibly lower the cognitive load of driving. The real bubble is the United States as the global luddite with nukes. The rest of the world is continuing apace on every front while we desperately try to return to the previous century.
    - wiml 9mo ago
      That's not "full self driving" by any stretch of the imagination. Where are these goalposts again?
      - LogicFailsMe 8mo ago
        My supposed goal posts are whether AI is useful or not, not the brain farts of libertooniian nut jobs who had covid one too many times and destroyed their own high level mental function. I mean when the chief current libertoonian talking points are we should flood the internet with AI generated child porn to reduce pedophilia, that Greta Thunberg is the Antichrist, or that the most important decision your daughter faces right now is whether she should study to be an engineer or become a sex worker, they have exited the room of serious conversation and entered the insane asylum across the board. I wish we could ignore them but they have the Zeitgeist. Stupid Zeitgeist

borroka 9mo ago

I do not doubt that AI and AI-powered and -native applications will become part of the fabric of our personal and professional lives. What I don't understand is why, outside of "because I can", people need to automate parts of life I did not know the existence of. - Why, outside of edge cases, do people have to automate the payment of bills beyond the automatic cc processing? - How many times a month do they have to set up their barber appointment? It seems to me that the applications of Clawd and similar tools either automate trivial stuff or work on actions and circumstances that should not be there. As an example, the other day I had a doctor visit, and between filling forms online, filling other forms online, confirming three times I would have been there and that I filled the online forms, driving to the doctor's office, and waiting, I probably spent 2 hours of my time (the visit was 2 months after I asked for it, by the way). The visit lasted 5-7 minutes: the doctor did not have a look at the forms I filled out beforehand, and barely listened to what I was telling him during the visit. I worry that, since "AI" will do it, there will be more forms to be filled that nobody will read, more forms to be filled to confirm that AI or me or a guardian filled the forms, and longer wait times because AI will bombard our neurons with some entertainment. But what I want is a visit with a doctor who listens to me, they are not in a rush, and have my problem solved. If AI helps, it's great, but I don't want busy work done by AI, I don't want, because it is not needed, busy work at all.

kridsdale3 9mo ago
Sounds like Brazil.
- borroka 9mo ago
  Sunny coastal California
LogicFailsMe 9mo ago
I would love an AI to curate my feed to transition from enragement equals engagement to pure enchantment feeding me things it decides I would enjoy. And I think that's completely within the abilities of current models. It's just that it's less profitable than driving me into an endless doom scroll loop of despair. And that's just off the top of my head. AI is neither good or evil, but we've made some pretty poor choices deploying it.