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> If China gets bogged down in Taiwan... Look at the geography. Taiwan is a long, narrow island. All the important parts are in a narrow plain on the west side
by Animats 9mo ago
> If China gets bogged down in Taiwan...
Look at the geography.
Taiwan is a long, narrow island. All the important parts are in a narrow plain on the west side, facing China. There's only about 20km of depth from the sea.
The war in Ukraine is like fighting over Iowa, one farm at a time.
Taiwan is not like that.
- JumpCrisscross 9mo ago> There's only about 20km of depth from the sea Don’t underestimate the stopping power of water. Taiwan will be China’s first combined-arms assault with a critical amphibious component. > war in Ukraine is like fighting over Iowa, one farm at a time. Taiwan is not like that Wide-open plains are traditionally easier for large armies to conquer than mountains.
- 827a 9mo agoBro: China literally has not fought a war in over 50 years. Taiwan is rich; lots of urban combat; lots of jungle & mountains; a resistant population; motivated & rich allies; China doesn’t remotely have the naval capability to fully blockade the island; Xi’s favorite pastime is disappearing experienced generals. A full-on China/Taiwan war will never happen, and if it did, it would kill 30 years of industrial and geopolitical progress.
- boojums 9mo agoIf China has not fought a war in 50 years, how do they have experienced generals? There is no evidence Xi is an incompetent madman.