3 ms·

I'd wager this routinely happens several times a year. In both directions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Iranian_shoot-down_of_American_drone https://en.

I'd wager this routinely happens several times a year. In both directions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Iranian_shoot-down_of_American_drone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Iranian_shoot-down_of_Ame... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93U.S._RQ-170_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93U.S._RQ-170_incid...

Bender 9mo ago
I'd wager this routinely happens several times a year. I totally get where you are coming from. I think this time is different. Trump is pushing testing their resolve in ways we never have before. Other admins have made idle threats but this time we have already bombed them. I think Iran knows our navy is not ready to take on their massive underground cities of anti-ship missiles and there is literally nowhere nearby to reload our missiles that contain a stockpile of missiles for a prolonged engagement from sea. The ships are required to sustain air combat. I think people near Trump are telling we have more capabilities than we actually do. That leaves only boots on the ground or nuclear. We have to retain a percentage of soldiers for all the other countries we are pissing off. Either way I hope they reach a deal or that we back off.
- ceejayoz 9mo ago
  I think the fact that the US and Israel have both recently demonstrated that modern stealth aircraft can enter deep into Iran's airspace effectively unopposed makes that a very risky endeavour for the Iranians. The fate of Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon is probably cautionary as well. I don't doubt that Trump's being hyped up for another big strike, though.
  - Bender 9mo ago
    I think the fact that the US and Israel have both recently demonstrated that modern stealth aircraft can enter deep into Iran's airspace effectively unopposed makes that a very risky endeavour for the Iranians. For the Iranian citizens I totally agree. They would be absolutely screwed seven ways to Sunday. Many of the Mullah's and military however are deep underground, far deeper and in bigger under ground cities than our bombers can reach. Their government structure is challenging in that somewhere just over 25k Mullah's can step up and take control. I know I am over-simplifying it. The other problem is that Russia and a handful of other countries would likely assist them. I don't know what side Turkey would flip to. We also gave up on the Houthis, though I'm sure others saw that differently. Either way I think they could just wait us out until we ran out of resources. I am trying to find a way to put a positive spin on this but I just can't.
- parsimo2010 9mo ago
  Many people don't remember, but in early 2020 just prior to COVID shutting the world down the US and Iran were near war- the US even assassinated one of Iran's important military commanders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleima.... Most people worldwide don't remember, but Iran is most certainly aware that Trump was president when that happened too. Most US presidents tried to find some balance with Iran, but Trump seems to want to be an antagonist.
  - Bender 9mo ago
    I remember and was a bit taken aback when it occurred. Soleimani while being linked to a terrorist org was also assisting the US military at the time. There must have been something going on behind the scenes that was never documented or I never read because he was one of our assets.
- Bender 9mo ago
  Iran's Navy is currently doing live fire drills. [1] [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT2jTFIptuM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT2jTFIptuM
- duxup 9mo ago
  Assuming this map is right: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/us/politics/trump-iran-us-military-maps.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/us/politics/trump-iran-us... I think the US military knows that they aren't ready for a high volume small boats and anti shipping missiles. They're keeping the aircraft carrier outside the gulf.

Bender 9mo ago

I'd wager this routinely happens several times a year. I totally get where you are coming from. I think this time is different. Trump is pushing testing their resolve in ways we never have before. Other admins have made idle threats but this time we have already bombed them. I think Iran knows our navy is not ready to take on their massive underground cities of anti-ship missiles and there is literally nowhere nearby to reload our missiles that contain a stockpile of missiles for a prolonged engagement from sea. The ships are required to sustain air combat. I think people near Trump are telling we have more capabilities than we actually do. That leaves only boots on the ground or nuclear. We have to retain a percentage of soldiers for all the other countries we are pissing off. Either way I hope they reach a deal or that we back off.

ceejayoz 9mo ago
I think the fact that the US and Israel have both recently demonstrated that modern stealth aircraft can enter deep into Iran's airspace effectively unopposed makes that a very risky endeavour for the Iranians. The fate of Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon is probably cautionary as well. I don't doubt that Trump's being hyped up for another big strike, though.
- Bender 9mo ago
  I think the fact that the US and Israel have both recently demonstrated that modern stealth aircraft can enter deep into Iran's airspace effectively unopposed makes that a very risky endeavour for the Iranians. For the Iranian citizens I totally agree. They would be absolutely screwed seven ways to Sunday. Many of the Mullah's and military however are deep underground, far deeper and in bigger under ground cities than our bombers can reach. Their government structure is challenging in that somewhere just over 25k Mullah's can step up and take control. I know I am over-simplifying it. The other problem is that Russia and a handful of other countries would likely assist them. I don't know what side Turkey would flip to. We also gave up on the Houthis, though I'm sure others saw that differently. Either way I think they could just wait us out until we ran out of resources. I am trying to find a way to put a positive spin on this but I just can't.
parsimo2010 9mo ago
Many people don't remember, but in early 2020 just prior to COVID shutting the world down the US and Iran were near war- the US even assassinated one of Iran's important military commanders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleima.... Most people worldwide don't remember, but Iran is most certainly aware that Trump was president when that happened too. Most US presidents tried to find some balance with Iran, but Trump seems to want to be an antagonist.
- Bender 9mo ago
  I remember and was a bit taken aback when it occurred. Soleimani while being linked to a terrorist org was also assisting the US military at the time. There must have been something going on behind the scenes that was never documented or I never read because he was one of our assets.
Bender 9mo ago
Iran's Navy is currently doing live fire drills. [1] [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT2jTFIptuM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT2jTFIptuM
duxup 9mo ago
Assuming this map is right: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/us/politics/trump-iran-us-military-maps.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/us/politics/trump-iran-us... I think the US military knows that they aren't ready for a high volume small boats and anti shipping missiles. They're keeping the aircraft carrier outside the gulf.