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To Build a Fire:Inside Russia's Campaign of Sabotage in Europe

43 points by stevenwoo 9mo ago

igor47 9mo ago
Fascinating, if not surprising. I sometimes wonder whether China's firewall is a huge tactical advantage in distributed warfare like this. Open societies are vulnerable to this kind is manipulation, and I'm not sure what defenses there are short of also becoming closed societies. Russian corruption is infectious Relatedly, I recently heard Dan Carlin (of hardcore history) on Sam Harris's podcast wonder how much of the current discord in the US is the product of Russian influence campaigns (and whether we'll ever find out)
- SPICLK2 9mo ago
  I've been saying this for a while. WW3 is already over and we lost, we just haven't noticed yet. It was fought against the West (primarily the US) using their own tools and ideologies.
  - N_Lens 9mo ago
    Your post getting downvoted is classic “they hated him because he spoke the truth”. WW3 is an information war, a war for narrative control.
  - tim333 9mo ago
    It's not really a world war in the WW1 and WW2 sense though. More a low level conflict, plus some fighting in Ukraine. I guess you could argue Russia got a Russian backed president into power in the US but he doesn't do everything they want and Russia is having a bad time at the moment.
fractallyte 9mo ago
> “From a doctrinal point of view, Europe is absolutely part of the theatre of conflict” > “It’s a show of force, a way of taking off the mask and saying, ‘So, Germany, what are you going to do about it?’ ” What should be done about it is to provide full, unconditional support for Ukraine; even better, close the skies and send an expeditionary force to help them push the russians out. > Even if the war in Ukraine comes to a close, Russia will still regard Europe as a strategic adversary. Ultimately, the best guarantee of European security is to ensure that Ukraine utterly defeats russia, and afterwards impose the equivalent of denazification on the population (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification). That our European leaders refuse to do anything decisive is the absolute nadir of incompetence and cowardice. A political career should require real qualifications for leadership. What we currently have is a clownshow that leads to world wars.
- bojan 9mo ago
  While I _theoretically_ agree with you, what you are saying is not realistic given the current constraints. > What should be done about it is to provide full, unconditional support for Ukraine; even better, close the skies and send an expeditionary force to help them push the russians out. Sure, it sounds easy. And if it were easy, I'm sure it'd be done already. But - do we even have an efficient way of defending against drone warfare? Are we ready for eventual Russian response? Civilian victims in Tallinn or Warsaw? Retaliatory strikes that flatten what is left of Ukrainian energy infrastructure? How far would you be willing to take it? > Ultimately, the best guarantee of European security is to ensure that Ukraine utterly defeats russia One doesn't defeat Russia militarily, even if it weren't a nuclear power. The only way to defeat them is to sow instability from within, which is what they so successfully have been doing to us in the last 25 years. > That our European leaders refuse to do anything decisive is the absolute nadir of incompetence and cowardice What are they supposed to do? The far-right, supported by both Russia and the US, is already polling at 35% all over Europe. Any decisive action carries an enormous cost that will have to paid by the European population that is already feeling the effects of inflation. As an example, the new Dutch government is introducing a special income tax, raising the pension age and taking billions away from the healthcare system in order to finance increased defence spending. That's the sort of compromises that pushes people even further to far-right populists, and that's without actually doing anything. The alternative, to tax wealth instead of income, seems to be unspeakable.
  - fractallyte 9mo ago
    It's realistic if just one prominent government takes a no-nonsense stance: send in troops, police the skies (shooting down drones as required), and ignore russian threats. As for protests in their home country: deal with them firmly. People need to be told who the enemy is, how russia is destabilizing security across Europe, and that this is unacceptable. Weak governments lead to the rise of the far right, because people want to see decisiveness and action, not empty words. Ukraine is able to defeat russia militarily - if it's given more than the "drip feed" necessary for basic survival. NATO need not be involved, and this is the utter shame of European "leadership".
  - 9mo ago

43 points by stevenwoo 9mo ago

Fascinating, if not surprising. I sometimes wonder whether China's firewall is a huge tactical advantage in distributed warfare like this. Open societies are vulnerable to this kind is manipulation, and I'm not sure what defenses there are short of also becoming closed societies. Russian corruption is infectious Relatedly, I recently heard Dan Carlin (of hardcore history) on Sam Harris's podcast wonder how much of the current discord in the US is the product of Russian influence campaigns (and whether we'll ever find out)

SPICLK2 9mo ago
I've been saying this for a while. WW3 is already over and we lost, we just haven't noticed yet. It was fought against the West (primarily the US) using their own tools and ideologies.
- N_Lens 9mo ago
  Your post getting downvoted is classic “they hated him because he spoke the truth”. WW3 is an information war, a war for narrative control.
- tim333 9mo ago
  It's not really a world war in the WW1 and WW2 sense though. More a low level conflict, plus some fighting in Ukraine. I guess you could argue Russia got a Russian backed president into power in the US but he doesn't do everything they want and Russia is having a bad time at the moment.

fractallyte 9mo ago

> “From a doctrinal point of view, Europe is absolutely part of the theatre of conflict” > “It’s a show of force, a way of taking off the mask and saying, ‘So, Germany, what are you going to do about it?’ ” What should be done about it is to provide full, unconditional support for Ukraine; even better, close the skies and send an expeditionary force to help them push the russians out. > Even if the war in Ukraine comes to a close, Russia will still regard Europe as a strategic adversary. Ultimately, the best guarantee of European security is to ensure that Ukraine utterly defeats russia, and afterwards impose the equivalent of denazification on the population (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification). That our European leaders refuse to do anything decisive is the absolute nadir of incompetence and cowardice. A political career should require real qualifications for leadership. What we currently have is a clownshow that leads to world wars.

bojan 9mo ago
While I _theoretically_ agree with you, what you are saying is not realistic given the current constraints. > What should be done about it is to provide full, unconditional support for Ukraine; even better, close the skies and send an expeditionary force to help them push the russians out. Sure, it sounds easy. And if it were easy, I'm sure it'd be done already. But - do we even have an efficient way of defending against drone warfare? Are we ready for eventual Russian response? Civilian victims in Tallinn or Warsaw? Retaliatory strikes that flatten what is left of Ukrainian energy infrastructure? How far would you be willing to take it? > Ultimately, the best guarantee of European security is to ensure that Ukraine utterly defeats russia One doesn't defeat Russia militarily, even if it weren't a nuclear power. The only way to defeat them is to sow instability from within, which is what they so successfully have been doing to us in the last 25 years. > That our European leaders refuse to do anything decisive is the absolute nadir of incompetence and cowardice What are they supposed to do? The far-right, supported by both Russia and the US, is already polling at 35% all over Europe. Any decisive action carries an enormous cost that will have to paid by the European population that is already feeling the effects of inflation. As an example, the new Dutch government is introducing a special income tax, raising the pension age and taking billions away from the healthcare system in order to finance increased defence spending. That's the sort of compromises that pushes people even further to far-right populists, and that's without actually doing anything. The alternative, to tax wealth instead of income, seems to be unspeakable.
- fractallyte 9mo ago
  It's realistic if just one prominent government takes a no-nonsense stance: send in troops, police the skies (shooting down drones as required), and ignore russian threats. As for protests in their home country: deal with them firmly. People need to be told who the enemy is, how russia is destabilizing security across Europe, and that this is unacceptable. Weak governments lead to the rise of the far right, because people want to see decisiveness and action, not empty words. Ukraine is able to defeat russia militarily - if it's given more than the "drip feed" necessary for basic survival. NATO need not be involved, and this is the utter shame of European "leadership".
- 9mo ago