4 ms·

yeah, I am not a huge fan of Musk, but this move is just going to bring down arguably the only decent thing he's produced. Leave SpaceX alone you child. Gwynne

yeah, I am not a huge fan of Musk, but this move is just going to bring down arguably the only decent thing he's produced. Leave SpaceX alone you child. Gwynne has it in excellent hands.. find some other way to pay for your juvenile brainfarts.

tialaramex 8mo ago
Although I'm sure SpaceX would be a non-trivial loss, the most important idea - their truly reusable rocket -- is proven to the point where other people are assuming they should do that to make rockets, it's like if Benz' company goes bankrupt in 1899. In that universe the Mercedes probably never happens but the automobile idea is already a done deal.
- fluoridation 8mo ago
  What do you mean? SpaceX didn't invent the reusable rocket, and my understanding is that Falcon 9 is still not significantly more economical than disposable rockets, and that the main reason it's attractive is that it's not Soyuz-2.
  - andsoitis 8mo ago
    > SpaceX didn't invent the reusable rocket There isn’t a single inventor and reusable rockets emerged through decades of research. But: SpaceX was the first to make orbital-class reuse routine and economically viable.
  - rogerrogerr 8mo ago
    Your understanding is wrong; see page 2 of https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20200001093.pdf https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20.... That’s a log plot! The backing table is on page 8. Falcon 9 is (was, in 2018! It’s only cheaper now.) at $2700/kg to LEO. No one else is below $4k, except… Falcon Heavy.
  - jasonwatkinspdx 8mo ago
    Space is basically half the cost of it's competitors on a per kg basis. And while previous experiments like the DC-X existed, SpaceX absolutely gets credit for the first operational reusable rocket stage. And I say that as someone that despises Elon and the way he casts his companies as due to his personal technical genius.
    - fluoridation 8mo ago
      >And while previous experiments like the DC-X existed, SpaceX absolutely gets credit for the first operational reusable rocket stage. Not true. What about STS?
      - jasonwatkinspdx 8mo ago
        Eh that's a spaceplane and solid rocket booster shells which I see as categorically different, and an absurd failure on a cost per kg basis.
        fluoridation 8mo ago
        It was a spaceplane and also a rocket. It literally had fixed rocket engines and was carried up by separating rocket stages. And yeah, it was expensive to operate, but it was built in the '80s and it truly was the first reusable rocket regularly flown, rather than being merely an experimental craft.
  - ghc 8mo ago
    I found that surprising, so I looked on Wikipedia. Soyuz-2 capacity to LEO: 8,600KG Falcon 9 capacity to LEO: 22,800KG when expended, 17,500KG when not. Soyuz-2 Cost to Launch: $35 Million New Falcon 9 Cost to Launch: $70 Million Used Falcon 9 Cost to Launch: $50 Million (cost to SpaceX: ~$25 Million) Soyuz-2 cost per KG: $4000 (data from 2018) New Falcon 9 cost per KG: $964 when expended, $1250 when not. Use Falcon 9 coster per KG to Customer: $893 when expended, $690 when not So realistically, Falcon 9 is roughly 20-30% the price per KG when new, and dropping to a minimum of 17.25% of the price when used. Plus you get a larger diameter payload fairing and the ability to launch a payload up to 4X the size. I'm pretty sure that even used as an expendable rocket, 1/4 the price per KG (if you need the capacity) is a pretty significant improvement. Now I understand why satellite ride-shares are so popular!
    - rogerrogerr 8mo ago
      Plus, the Falcon launch cadence is infinitely better than Soyuz 2. 2025: Soyuz-2: 12 launches Falcon 9: 165!
leesec 8mo ago
>arguably the only decent thing he's produced. such a hilarious comment / mindset. he made the best selling car in the world 3 years running. neuralink is a great breakthrough. there are a string of accomplishments which individually would be the greatest thing many many people have ever done.
- scubbo 8mo ago
  > he made the best selling car in the world 3 years running Not only did Elon not found Tesla[0], but many employees have described the "babysitters" or "handlers" who are responsible for making him feel like his ideas have been implemented, so that his caprice and bluster don't interfere with the actual operation of the company. To give him his due, he's a phenomenal manipulator of public opinion and image, and he certainly has invested a lot of his emerald-generated wealth into numerous successful ventures - but he himself is not a positive contributor to their success. [0] https://autoworldjournal.com/is-elon-musk-the-founder-of-tesla/ https://autoworldjournal.com/is-elon-musk-the-founder-of-tes...
  - Fogest 8mo ago
    I mean, even if he isn't directly making a lot of the decisions in these companies that are doing well, it doesn't mean he doesn't play a big role in that still. He still had to pick a lot of these leaders, pay them well, keep them satisfied enough to stay there, and also give them the proper freedom to lead these companies. There are many people out there who could also manage to make these companies fail instead of grow. I feel that a lot of people simply don't like Elon because of political reasons which are often also based on misinformed opinions. It also can't be denied that he is an intelligent person. You can hear it when he talks in interviews. Now I think ultimately any ultra wealthy person is going to have some flaws that people can find and latch onto in order to hate someone.
    - scubbo 8mo ago
      > It also can't be denied that he is an intelligent person. You can hear it when he talks in interviews. While I certainly won't deny that I do strongly disagree with all of Elon's politics, I'm being as fair and unbiased as I can when I say - we must be listening to different interviews. The man sounds like a caricature of a bumbling college stoner philosophy student most of the time.
saalweachter 8mo ago
I think we're around stage 4 of: 1. Elon is a genius, a real world Tony Stark. 2. How dare you! You're just jealous! 3. Ok, regardless, he's done more to advance EVe and space travel than anyone else alive. 4. Oh God, he's going to cripple US development of EVs and rockets, isn't he? 5. Eh, Mars was never happening in my lifetime anyway.
- woooooo 8mo ago
  I think he's genuinely changed for the worse, quite a lot, in the last 10 years. Staring down failure seemed to keep the worst tendencies in check, being untouchable amplified them.

tialaramex 8mo ago

Although I'm sure SpaceX would be a non-trivial loss, the most important idea - their truly reusable rocket -- is proven to the point where other people are assuming they should do that to make rockets, it's like if Benz' company goes bankrupt in 1899. In that universe the Mercedes probably never happens but the automobile idea is already a done deal.

fluoridation 8mo ago
What do you mean? SpaceX didn't invent the reusable rocket, and my understanding is that Falcon 9 is still not significantly more economical than disposable rockets, and that the main reason it's attractive is that it's not Soyuz-2.
- andsoitis 8mo ago
  > SpaceX didn't invent the reusable rocket There isn’t a single inventor and reusable rockets emerged through decades of research. But: SpaceX was the first to make orbital-class reuse routine and economically viable.
- rogerrogerr 8mo ago
  Your understanding is wrong; see page 2 of https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20200001093.pdf https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20.... That’s a log plot! The backing table is on page 8. Falcon 9 is (was, in 2018! It’s only cheaper now.) at $2700/kg to LEO. No one else is below $4k, except… Falcon Heavy.
- jasonwatkinspdx 8mo ago
  Space is basically half the cost of it's competitors on a per kg basis. And while previous experiments like the DC-X existed, SpaceX absolutely gets credit for the first operational reusable rocket stage. And I say that as someone that despises Elon and the way he casts his companies as due to his personal technical genius.
  - fluoridation 8mo ago
    >And while previous experiments like the DC-X existed, SpaceX absolutely gets credit for the first operational reusable rocket stage. Not true. What about STS?
    - jasonwatkinspdx 8mo ago
      Eh that's a spaceplane and solid rocket booster shells which I see as categorically different, and an absurd failure on a cost per kg basis.
      - fluoridation 8mo ago
        It was a spaceplane and also a rocket. It literally had fixed rocket engines and was carried up by separating rocket stages. And yeah, it was expensive to operate, but it was built in the '80s and it truly was the first reusable rocket regularly flown, rather than being merely an experimental craft.
- ghc 8mo ago
  I found that surprising, so I looked on Wikipedia. Soyuz-2 capacity to LEO: 8,600KG Falcon 9 capacity to LEO: 22,800KG when expended, 17,500KG when not. Soyuz-2 Cost to Launch: $35 Million New Falcon 9 Cost to Launch: $70 Million Used Falcon 9 Cost to Launch: $50 Million (cost to SpaceX: ~$25 Million) Soyuz-2 cost per KG: $4000 (data from 2018) New Falcon 9 cost per KG: $964 when expended, $1250 when not. Use Falcon 9 coster per KG to Customer: $893 when expended, $690 when not So realistically, Falcon 9 is roughly 20-30% the price per KG when new, and dropping to a minimum of 17.25% of the price when used. Plus you get a larger diameter payload fairing and the ability to launch a payload up to 4X the size. I'm pretty sure that even used as an expendable rocket, 1/4 the price per KG (if you need the capacity) is a pretty significant improvement. Now I understand why satellite ride-shares are so popular!
  - rogerrogerr 8mo ago
    Plus, the Falcon launch cadence is infinitely better than Soyuz 2. 2025: Soyuz-2: 12 launches Falcon 9: 165!

leesec 8mo ago

>arguably the only decent thing he's produced. such a hilarious comment / mindset. he made the best selling car in the world 3 years running. neuralink is a great breakthrough. there are a string of accomplishments which individually would be the greatest thing many many people have ever done.

scubbo 8mo ago
> he made the best selling car in the world 3 years running Not only did Elon not found Tesla[0], but many employees have described the "babysitters" or "handlers" who are responsible for making him feel like his ideas have been implemented, so that his caprice and bluster don't interfere with the actual operation of the company. To give him his due, he's a phenomenal manipulator of public opinion and image, and he certainly has invested a lot of his emerald-generated wealth into numerous successful ventures - but he himself is not a positive contributor to their success. [0] https://autoworldjournal.com/is-elon-musk-the-founder-of-tesla/ https://autoworldjournal.com/is-elon-musk-the-founder-of-tes...
- Fogest 8mo ago
  I mean, even if he isn't directly making a lot of the decisions in these companies that are doing well, it doesn't mean he doesn't play a big role in that still. He still had to pick a lot of these leaders, pay them well, keep them satisfied enough to stay there, and also give them the proper freedom to lead these companies. There are many people out there who could also manage to make these companies fail instead of grow. I feel that a lot of people simply don't like Elon because of political reasons which are often also based on misinformed opinions. It also can't be denied that he is an intelligent person. You can hear it when he talks in interviews. Now I think ultimately any ultra wealthy person is going to have some flaws that people can find and latch onto in order to hate someone.
  - scubbo 8mo ago
    > It also can't be denied that he is an intelligent person. You can hear it when he talks in interviews. While I certainly won't deny that I do strongly disagree with all of Elon's politics, I'm being as fair and unbiased as I can when I say - we must be listening to different interviews. The man sounds like a caricature of a bumbling college stoner philosophy student most of the time.

saalweachter 8mo ago

I think we're around stage 4 of: 1. Elon is a genius, a real world Tony Stark. 2. How dare you! You're just jealous! 3. Ok, regardless, he's done more to advance EVe and space travel than anyone else alive. 4. Oh God, he's going to cripple US development of EVs and rockets, isn't he? 5. Eh, Mars was never happening in my lifetime anyway.

woooooo 8mo ago
I think he's genuinely changed for the worse, quite a lot, in the last 10 years. Staring down failure seemed to keep the worst tendencies in check, being untouchable amplified them.