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Model S was successful until Model 3/Y blew it out of the water. Waymo’s timeline is not relevant because they lose money on every car and every deployment. Tes
by iknowstuff 9mo ago
Model S was successful until Model 3/Y blew it out of the water. Waymo’s timeline is not relevant because they lose money on every car and every deployment. Tesla’s the only financially successful developer of self driving. They can scale it up much faster.In fact, instead of making $5k per car produced, cybercab will net them $50k per car per year.
- ben_w 9mo agoThe world doesn't consist of just Waymo and Tesla, and even if it did there's no guarantee either succeeds. > cybercab will net them $50k per car per year. Assuming no mass boycotts, nor targeted vandalism. We've already seen both in the last 12 months.
- iknowstuff 9mo agoIt’ll be fine. Especially when people compare the price of ownership/uber to robotaxis.
- ben_w 9mo agoWhen people actually compare prices, they note that Chinese cars also have autopilot and cost less than half of a Tesla, new. What's keeping Chinese brands out of the USA, isn't keeping them out of Europe or much of anywhere else.
- LanceJones 9mo agoBYD sales in January 2026 are down 30% YoY. Not looking great for them in 2026.
- ben_w 9mo agoWhen I search for this, I find about equal numbers of stories with two opposing narratives. One matching what you say; the other saying they're up significantly, e.g. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/byd-overtakes-tesla-world-largest-120040304.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/byd-overtakes-tesla-world-lar... I do not know what to make of this. However, it is unimportant, as the main concern for your argument should be all Chinese brands combined rather than any specific brand. Unfortunately, given I'm seeing two narratives that seem to be mutually exclusive for BYD, I don't think I can trust web searches to tell me about all brands combined either. However, even that is unimportant, as my point was more focused on the price and value for money, how Chinese models compete on AI for less cost; even to do badly in this regard (which they might or might not be given the mutually incompatible news stories I've seen) is less a narrative about Chinese market failure and more of a demonstration that hardly anyone really cares about the AI in the first place.
- iknowstuff 9mo agoTesla remains competitive in China, which can't be said of European EVs. Chinese ADAS are much better than European ones but still far behind FSD. To bring the discussion back on topic: $50k/year or ~$250k over the course of the vehicle's lifetime, instead of $5k for a singular sale event, is why the path for the company is crystal clear. Cybercab is the same kind of step for Tesla as the Model 3 was back in 2017.
- seattle_spring 9mo agoMore likely that it's going to be the same kind of step for Tesla as the Oculus was for Facebook.
- iknowstuff 9mo agoI’ll grant you that it could be, and I’m betting it won’t while you are betting it will. The future is now obvious to fsd14 and robotaxi users. Failure is no longer likely.
- ben_w 9mo ago> $50k/year or ~$250k over the course of the vehicle's lifetime, instead of $5k for a singular sale event Who will be paying Tesla $50k/year, and why? Considering what Uber drivers take home after costs, I think this is unrealistic. > Chinese ADAS are much better than European ones but still far behind FSD. Not so, on both "much" and "far". Some tests put FSD ahead of various Chinese options, other tests put them behind. Tesla's FSD is still considered a level-2 system due to the failure modes it has, whereas (Europe's) Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot and (Japan's) Honda Sensing Elite are level 3. Allegedly others exist, but I'm mentally categorising those as vapourware until they ship, this is demonstrably a domain in which it's easy to fool oneself into thinking the destination is closer than it is.
- iknowstuff 9mo agoYou’d think you’d be more up to date on the unorderable vaporware press fluff “L3” being cancelled by mercedes. It wasnt close to fsd. Ask your local llm for the earnings of a $.20/.30 per mile autonomous vehicle
- ta9000 9mo agoYeah and it’s going to bankrupt VW/Stellantis. Surprised Europeans just don’t seem to give a damn about that.
- ben_w 9mo agoQuite a few do care about the potential for job losses. On the other hand, a lot of people want cheap cars. This dichotomy has always been in place for a huge range of specifics, both for imports and technology that makes workers less relevant. The "we want cheap stuff" argument is the one that has done best historically, though the track record of handling this badly also led to the invention of actual literal communism.
- aaaalone 9mo ago[dead]
- margalabargala 9mo ago> Tesla’s the only financially successful developer of self driving. This is completely false. Audi and Chevrolet both have self driving as good as Tesla.
- nunez 9mo agoThey sure as hell do not. SuperCruise only worked in pre mapped areas and bails whenever there's construction or deviation to plan. It's analogous to Tesla AP2 at best. FSD works EVERYWHERE, almost any time.
- margalabargala 8mo ago"More area" isn't "better". We're measuring by different yardsticks. How widespread the manufacturer allows their software's use, is not the same thing as how good it is. Sure, FSD works everywhere. But SuperCruise has zero crashes caused with 700 million miles driven. There are youtube channels dedicated to all the Tesla FSD crashes.
- iknowstuff 8mo agohttps://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1k2p40o/gm_super_cruise_is_way_behind_fsd_its_not_close https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1k2p40o/gm... You’ve been misled.
- iknowstuff 9mo agoThis would literally only be said by a person who hasn’t tried fsd14 so do yourself a favor and go for a test ride of a Tesla and Audi/Chevrolet and report back. They are not comparable.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- interestpiqued 9mo agoIf they’re not trying FSD 14.156.891111 they wouldn’t believe how great it is